With the Columbus Blue Jackets well out of the playoff picture, it's officially Kent Johnson watch season™.
The NCAA Frozen Four is this coming weekend, and win or lose, it's expected that Johnson will sign with the Blue Jackets after his season with Michigan comes to an end.
There's an inherent level of pressure placed on any top pick to not just play, but succeed, at the NHL level, and it's no different with Johnson, who was picked fifth overall in 2021. And while it's an unfair expectation - how often do top picks amount to NHL average players (or worse)? - it really does feel like the Blue Jackets need Johnson to 'pop'.
Part of that is because of his playstyle; Johnson oozes skill. He's the type of player who can run a power play, dangle through a defender, and embarrass a goalie. In some ways, he's the antithesis to Cole Sillinger, who was picked just a few minutes later, 12th overall, in the same draft. Sillinger, who has plenty of skill in his own right, is what I'd call a high floor player. Worst case scenario, Sillinger is a serviceable NHL player for the next decade. And while his best-case scenario is still to be determined, it's not a stretch to say it's lower than that of Johnson. On the other hand, Johnson comes with some risks. The NHL is trending towards a more skillful, creative game, but it's still a physically demanding game, and Johnson checks in under 170 lbs. It wouldn't shock me if he struggles to find his footing in the NHL, at least at first, like Sonny Milano. It also wouldn't shock me if he's the 2023 version of Trevor Zegras, who takes the NHL by storm with his creativity and ridiculous skill level. His floor is lower, his ceiling higher than Sillinger's.
And he's exactly what Columbus needs.
No pressure, but Kent Johnson needs to be the guy that can drive a line and make for an optimum version of Columbus' shoot-first players, namely Patrik Laine. The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn shared this sentiment in his most recent 16 Stats article:
15. Over his last 20 games, Patrik Laine has perhaps the most Patrik Laine stat-line imaginable. He has 12 goals and 11 assists, but only 4.6 expected goals and a 36 percent expected goals rate. He’s incredibly talented and this has been a strong bounce-back season for him, but he just can’t be The Guy on a team. Nothing wrong with that, but if Columbus is serious about keeping him the team needs to surround him with some two-way talent. Someone that can be The Guy.
Right now, Jakub Voracek is tasked with the huge responsibility of being the club's preeminent puck transporter. Voracek is a high-end playmaker, and excels off the rush, on the power play, and in-zone. But his game is not geared toward skating the puck from the defensive zone into the offensive zone, like Artemi Panarin. That type of player is rare. The Blue Jackets hope they have that player in Johnson.
When Voracek isn't skating the puck, it's often Laine. And while both he and Voracek are competent at this, it's not an optimum fit for their playstyles, the way it is for Johnson. Johnson is at his best when he's got the puck on his stick all game, gaining confidence with every new touch. He almost glides on the ice, dancing between checkers in the neutral zone. Neither Voracek nor Laine has that prowess, and that's no knock on either of them.
In some ways, Voracek is a perfect teacher for Johnson. While their games are different, they both excel in distributing the puck. Voracek will be 33 when the next season starts and is pending UFA after the 2023-24 season. Johnson will be just 20 in October. It's also easy to forget that Laine is still just 23, and could thrive playing alongside a creative type like Johnson.
The Blue Jackets knew they needed an injection of high-end talent into their organization. They got that when they drafted Johnson. Now, for them to take the next step, they'll need Johnson to carry them there.
