Feeling Drafty, 2.0: How The Draft Lottery Could Shake Out For The Columbus Blue Jackets

While the bounce of a ping pong ball could change a team's fortune, the best odds will always be chalk. Here are some things to keep in mind before we look at where the Blue Jackets are most likely to hear their name called in this spring's draft lottery: 

• Columbus will likely be the owner of two first-round picks. Their own, but also that of the Chicago Blackhawks as a result of last summer's Seth Jones trade. One caveat: if Chicago wins one of the top two picks (which would take a little luck, rather than a little math), the pick will stay with Chicago until next year — in which it would become Columbus' no matter where the pick falls.  
   
• The NHL will hold only two drawings: one for first pick and one for second. This means the worst team can't fall any lower than third, and the second worst team can go no lower than selecting fourth. As a byproduct of that, teams cannot move up more than ten spots in the lottery. Only the bottom 11 teams in the standings are eligible to win the lottery. 
   
• That's a big deal for the Blue Jackets, who currently are 12th from the bottom. As of Monday afternoon, there is no possible way for Columbus to select first in the draft (unless they trade for it). They can only go as high as the second pick (their own) and the third (Chicago's). 
   
• How big are the final few weeks of the season? Pretty big, but to understand why, it helps if the draft lottery odds and standings are presented first:

• As of Monday afternoon, Columbus is most likely to pick 7th and 12th in the draft. There is no change here this time last week. It's highly likely that Arizona, Montreal, and Seattle — in any order — will be the three worst teams in the league, with the best odds of picking first, second, and third.
   
• The Blackhawks, however, are now within three points of having the fourth worst record in the league. They are one point ahead of Ottawa, two ahead of Philadelphia, and three ahead of New Jersey. If Chicago can creep into that fourth position, they will have a nearly 20% chance of picking top two in the draft, which means they would keep their pick next year and Columbus would get it (no matter what) next season. As it currently stands, though, it's most likely that Chicago will pick 7th, and they have a 13.7% chance of winning one of the first two picks in the lottery. 
   
• Chicago getting into the fourth position means that the aforementioned Ottawa, Philadelphia, and New Jersey franchises will need to pick up some points over their last ten games. Because of that, they are ranked 3rd, 4th, and 5th on the chart below, which shows who Columbus fans should be rooting for the hardest over the last few weeks of the season. 
   
• Ahead of those teams are San Jose and Anaheim. Why are those the teams to most watch for Columbus? Remember, the Blue Jackets must finish with one of the worst 11 records in the league if they want any chance at the top spot this summer. That means that at least one of those teams will need to finish strong and pass the Blue Jackets in points. Columbus is four points ahead of the Ducks, but the Ducks are one of the few teams in the league with less games left (8) than the Blue Jackets (9). The Sharks are seven points back, but they have a few more games left (11) than Anaheim and a couple more than Columbus. Columbus travels out west after Wednesday's game against Montreal, and both the Sharks and Ducks are among the teams the Blue Jackets face off against. It would be tough to actively root against Columbus in those games, but... if it could help give Columbus a shot at number one? C'est la vie. The Islanders are only one point ahead of the Blue Jackets in the standings, but they're on the bottom of the significance list because they have two games in hand and have played much better hockey in the last two months. It does not seem like they'll end up behind Columbus in the standings.

• Games in the light red are games against Chicago. Games with a pastel green background are where two teams on the list face each other; those games going to overtime could be especially beneficial for Columbus, as it means the teams will collectively pick up three points in the standings as opposed to two. Games in the light union blue are against Columbus — let's call those "conundrum games." 
   
• Vancouver winning three straight games has sent them to 80 points, so with the same number of games remaining, it would be quite unlikely for the Blue Jackets to end up with fewer points than the Canucks. Thus, Vancouver has been removed from the chart below, which will show the most important teams remaining. 
   
• As for the Blue Jackets and Blackhawks, here are the ten games that remain on their schedules. Italicized games are of the utmost importance: