Feelin' Drafty, 3.0: The Draft Picture Is Starting To Come Into Focus; Here's What It Could Mean For The Blue Jackets

They'll need a little luck, but the Blue Jackets back-to-back losses over the weekend in southern California put them at least somewhat in contention for a chance at the top pick in the draft. Even without winning the lottery, Columbus is likely to end up with two of the first dozen picks in this summer's NHL entry draft.

Before sorting out where the Blue Jackets are most likely to pick, a few reminders:

• Columbus is the likely owner of two first-round picks: their own, and the first round pick of the Chicago Blackhawks. The exception to this would be if the Blackhawks win one of the top two picks in the lottery. The odds of that happening aren't known yet, but it'll almost certainly fall in the range of 12.0% to 19.6%. That's oddly specific, but the 12% chance represents if Chicago finishes 7th-worst in the league (which is about as good as they can finish, pending an equatorially-hot finish to the season) and 19.6%, which is where it would be with the fourth-worst record. If Chicago wins one of the top two picks, they keep it, and Columbus gets Chicago's (unprotected) first-rounder next season. 
   
• Almost every draft board has Shane Wright at the top of it. The 18-year-old Ontario native has 32 goals and 62 assists in 63 games as the captain for the OHL's Kingston Frontenacs. The Frontenacs regular season came to an end Sunday, and their postseason journey begins later in the week. Led by Wright, Kingston went 41-22-5 this season. 
   
• The NHL has two drawings: one for first pick and one for second. The worst team can't fall any lower than third, and the second worst team can go no lower than selecting fourth. As a byproduct of that, teams cannot move up more than ten spots in the lottery. Only the bottom 11 teams in the standings are eligible to win the lottery. 
   
• That's a big deal for the Blue Jackets, who currently are 12th from the bottom. As of Monday afternoon, there is no possible way for Columbus to win the first pick. They can only go as high as the second pick (their own) and Chicago's sixth pick, because any higher than that means the Blackhawks will have a top two pick, and they'd keep it. (If curious, the worst possible scenario for this draft would have the Blue Jackets picking 14th. Chicago would win the lottery in this case, bumping Columbus' swipe of Chicago's pick to next summer). 
   
• Here's a look at the current standings, ranked from the bottom, along with what that means for a given team's draft odds:

• As of Monday afternoon, Columbus is most likely to pick 7th and 12th in the draft. It's quirky (and mathy, if that's a word) how it works that the most likely option is for the 6th-worst team to pick 7th. That's because the odds that a team below 6th jumps up to the top two is greater than the odds of that not happening, and if even one team jumps into the top two via a draft lottery win, that'll bump Chicago from 6th to 7th. The odds of it happening twice, and bumping Chicago to 8th, are less (11.5%) — but still more probable than Chicago picking first (7.6%) or second (7.9%). (Though, just for the sake of math being so perfect and imperfect at the same time, it's not more probable than the combined odds of one of those things happening, which is 15.5%)
   
• The Blackhawks are almost a lock to own somewhere between the fourth and seventh-worst record in the league. The eighth-worst team, Detroit, is seven points clear of Chicago — and the Blackhawks are seven clear of the Seattle Kraken, who are third from the bottom. But 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th are all tangled up. Each team in that bunch (Philadelphia, New Jersey, Chicago, and Ottawa) are two points away from the team next to them, and all but one have seven games left on the schedule. (Philadelphia has six). 

So, who should Columbus really be pushing for over the last two weeks of the season? There are six teams in particular that bear watching, and in a fairly strict order: 

• The Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks are 1-2 on this last, but the Ducks are absolutely the most critical team. If you don't care about wins and losses anymore, now that the Blue Jackets are officially eliminated from playoff contention, then Sunday's 6-4 loss to the Ducks was a thing of beauty. It put Anaheim within two points of Columbus, and remember, Columbus needs jumped by a team (such as Anaheim) to get into the position where they have a (slim, but still palatable) chance at the top pick. A 3.1% chance seems low, but imagine the frustration years from now when All-Star forward Shane Wright is scoring 50 goals per season for the Ducks instead of the Blue Jackets because of a meaningless west coast game in April back in 2022. 
   
• The Sharks come in second, because, while they have two less games played (75) than Anaheim (77), they also have four fewer points (70) than the Ducks (74). San Jose and Columbus play Tuesday night as the Blue Jackets stay out west, so if you're the type of person who wants Columbus to have a chance at the top pick, you're probably going to be rooting (at least deep down) for the Blue Jackets to finish their road trip 0-3. 
  ​
• The Flyers, Devils, and Senators are third, fourth, and fifth on the list. These three teams winning as much as possible over their last combined 20 games left on the schedule would help the likelihood that any (or all) of them finish ahead of Chicago in the standings, which in return, would boost Columbus' odds of a higher (or held) pick this summer (or next). 
   
• The Islanders are three points ahead of the Blue Jackets in the standings and have an extra game to play, so they're on the bottom of the list — but it's still important for the Isles to finish ahead of Columbus, so they'll make another appearance on the list, at least for this week.

• Games in the light red are against Chicago. Games in pastel green are where two teams on the list face each other; those games going to overtime could be especially beneficial for Columbus, as it means the teams will collectively pick up three points in the standings as opposed to two. Games in the light union blue are against Columbus.
   
• A couple more teams have been eliminated from the list above. The Buffalo Sabres aren't locked into any particular spot yet, but with just four games left, it's highly unlikely that they (a) catch Columbus or (b) get caught by Chicago. It's slightly more possible with Detroit, but the Red Wings have been removed for the same reason. If something funky happens, they'll pop back on next week, but that would be a very funky something.
   
• As for the Blue Jackets and Blackhawks, here are the ten games that remain on their schedules. Italicized games are of the utmost importance:

Chicago has three "should-lose" games — Calgary, Los Angeles, and Vegas. The other four, though, are winnable. Saturday's game against San Jose and next Monday's battle with the Flyers could be particularly big, for all the reasons listed above.

As for the Blue Jackets, it's a tough final four games of the season for Columbus, especially because all three teams (Tampa twice) will likely be playing for some type of home-ice advantage. San Jose and Ottawa this week, though, is a decent chance at four points. If that happens, that puts Columbus at 80 points — even if they lose their last four in regulation. That would also all but finalize Columbus finishing ahead of San Jose in the standings, because even if the Blue Jackets lost all four, San Jose would have to win five of their last six; a tall task for a team on a 10-game losing streak.

Who knew losing was so complicated?