As the NHL enters the final week of its first full regular season since 2018-19, there's still plenty to be decided when it comes to where the Columbus Blue Jackets will find themselves when the draft order is revealed May 10th.
It's a particularly interesting year for the Blue Jackets, and games between now and May 2nd could drastically alter the course of the franchise, If the games go the right way and the ping pong balls fall Columbus' way, they could have two of the top three picks in the draft — including the first overall pick.
A fragment of bad luck and the wrong teams winning (which, realistically, includes the Blue Jackets), and Columbus could go from selecting 1st and 3rd overall in July's draft to having just one pick, all the way down at number 14 overall.
Yikes.
A few things to keep in mind before we dig in:
- As a part of the Seth Jones trade, the Blue Jackets have Chicago's first round pick — provided the Blackhawks don't win one of the top two picks. Arizona and Montreal have the bottom two spots already locked up, and Chicago will finish somewhere between third-worst and sixth-worst. That means the Blackhawks will have somewhere between a 15.5% and 21.8% chance of winning one of the top two spots, which would also mean Columbus ends up with Chicago's unprotected first round pick next summer instead of the pick this year. Whether or not that's an ideal scenario simply depends on a mindset. In our poll below that asks if the Blue Jackets would be better off with Chicago's unprotected pick next year, voting is currently at 50-50.
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Only the worst 11 teams can win the number one pick due to a recent change to the lottery rules that states a team can't jump more than ten spots. As of now, Columbus is 12th from the bottom — which gives them a 3.2% chance at the second pick, but no chance of winning the lottery. Columbus can only fall one more spot in the standings — more on that in a moment — so at best, the Blue Jackets will have a 3.1% chance of winning the lottery.
- Here's a look at the current standings, ranked from the bottom, along with what that means for a given team's draft odds:
| RANK/TEAM | PTS/GR | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th |
| 1. ARI | 51 (3) | 25.7 | 18.7 | 55.6 | ||||||||||||
| 2. MTL | 51 (2) | 12.1 | 13.6 | 32.2 | 42.2 | |||||||||||
| 3. SEA | 58 (4) | 10.9 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 39.7 | 31.5 | ||||||||||
| 4. PHI | 61 (3) | 9.7 | 9.9 | 13.7 | 43.6 | 23.1 | ||||||||||
| 5. NJ | 62 (3) | 8.5 | 8.8 | 21.6 | 44.4 | 16.8 | ||||||||||
| 6. CHI | 63 (3) | 7.6 | 7.9 | 30.0 | 43.0 | 11.5 | ||||||||||
| 7. OTT | 69 (3) | 6.7 | 7.0 | 39.7 | 39.1 | 7.4 | ||||||||||
| 8. DET | 72 (2) | 5.8 | 6.2 | 49.4 | 34.0 | 4.6 | ||||||||||
| 9. BUF | 73 (2) | 5.4 | 5.8 | 58.6 | 27.6 | 2.7 | ||||||||||
| 10. ANA | 74 (2) | 4.5 | 4.8 | 67.7 | 21.5 | 1.4 | ||||||||||
| 11. SJ | 76 (3) | 3.1 | 3.4 | 75.9 | 16.9 | 0.8 | ||||||||||
| 12. CBJ | 79 (3) | 3.2 | 2.5 | 81.7 | 12.3 | 0.4 | ||||||||||
| 13. NYI | 80 (3) | 2.7 | 1.9 | 86.9 | 8.3 | 0.1 |
Based on the standings as they currently are, the most likely scenario for the Blue Jackets in the draft lottery is that they will pick 7th and 12th. Chicago, despite the sixth-worst record, has a 43% chance of the 7th pick and only a 30% chance of the 6th pick. That's because there is a 57% chance that a team below Chicago in the standings jumps them for one of the top five spots. (Note: the chart above does not include teams ranked 14th-16th from the bottom, and 14th and 15th have the chance to jump Chicago.)
Chicago can not rise in the standings. They can max out at 69 points, and even if Ottawa (just ahead of them in the standings) were to lose out, Ottawa would finish with the better record based on the tiebreaker of non-shootout wins.
The Blackhawks can, however, still tumble in the standings. They are just one point ahead of New Jersey and two ahead of Philadelphia. Both of those teams have three more non-shootout wins than Chicago does, so any tie with either of those teams and it'll be the Blackhawks who end up lower in the standings — and with the better odds to a higher pick. Third from the bottom, while much less likely, is still a possibility. The Blackhawks are five points ahead of the Seattle Kraken for that spot, but Seattle does have an extra game left to play as a result of a postponed game from earlier in the month due to weather.
With all this in mind, there are six teams to watch with a close eye between now and the end of the season:
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CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (63 points)
REMAINING SCHEDULE: vs. Flyers, vs. Golden Knights, @ Sabres
WHY IT MATTERS: No matter where someone falls on whether or not it's better to have Chicago's pick this offseason or next, the logic of vehemently rooting against the Blackhawks is a no-brainer. The lower they fall, the higher the pick this year — or, the higher the odds are that they win the lottery and Columbus takes the unprotected pick next year. The game against the Flyers (Monday night) is huge, because it would single-handily put Philadelphia ahead of Chicago in the standings.
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SAN JOSE SHARKS (76 points)
REMAINING SCHEDULE: vs. Ducks, @ Oilers, @ Kraken
WHY IT MATTERS: If Columbus wants any chance at winning the lottery, the only team that can help them are the Sharks. They did so in a huge way Sunday night, scoring two goals in the final three minutes — including the game-tying goal with one second remaining — en route to a shootout win over Vegas. Keep that literal split-second in mind if the Sharks finish ahead of Columbus and the Blue Jackets go on to win the lottery. The first and third games on this schedule seem winnable, which would put the Sharks at 80 points. At that point, the Blue Jackets would need to go 0-3-0 this week to fall behind San Jose. Keep this in mind, too: Columbus would have the better record in the result of a tie in points, so the Sharks must finish ahead of the Blue Jackets, and not with them.
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NEW YORK ISLANDERS (80 points)
REMAINING SCHEDULE: @ Capitals, vs. Capitals, vs. Lightning
WHY IT MATTERS: This is an interesting one. The Islanders have lost five in a row and find themselves just a point ahead of Columbus in the standings. There are two ways the Islanders could mess up what the Blue Jackets have going: imagine San Jose winning out, finishing at 82 points, but Columbus wins a game this week and goes to 81. The Sharks still finish ahead of the Blue Jackets in points, but both fall behind Islanders because they go 0-3-0 this week. The other way? Take the Sharks out of the equation but still put Columbus ahead of New York is the standings — all of a sudden, the Blue Jackets can't win the first or second overall pick, and end up with a 92.5% chance of their pick being outside the top dozen.
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NEW JERSEY DEVILS (62 points)
REMAINING SCHEDULE: @ Senators, @ Hurricanes, vs. Red Wings
WHY IT MATTERS: The first of three teams where it's pretty simple: if the Devils (along with the Flyers and Kraken) finish with more points than the Blackhawks, the better position the Blue Jackets will be in when the ping pong balls fall. The Senators and Red Wings are certainly winnable, but pay attention to what Carolina does Tuesday night against the New York Rangers. If they win, the Hurricanes clinch the Metro division — and would have nothing to play for in their season finale Thursday night against New Jersey.
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PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (61 points)
REMAINING SCHEDULE: @ Blackhawks, @ Jets, vs. Senators
WHY IT MATTERS: See above, but with one big asterisk: the Flyers and Blackhawks face off against each other Monday night. If the Blackhawks win that game in regulation, the Flyers could only above Chicago in the standings if they were to beat the Jets and Senators and have the Blackhawks lose in regulation to the Golden Knights and Sabres. It's a case of strange bedfellows, but the Blue Jackets will be cheering hard for the Flyers to win not only Monday, but in all of their remaining games this season.
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SEATTLE KRAKEN (58 points)
REMAINING SCHEDULE: @ Canucks, vs. Kings, vs. Sharks, @ Jets
WHY IT MATTERS: The longest shot, but it's still worth discussing. The Kraken would need to go 2-1-1 in these games, at the very least, for this to be a thing. If Chicago wins even one of their final three games, it would mean Seattle needs to win three of the four. The tiebreaker in the event of both teams finishing with the same amount of points is still not fully determined because either team could finish with more non-shootout wins than the other depending on how things shake out. For now, know this: If the Blackhawks win Monday against Philadelphia and the Kraken lose Tuesday in Vancouver, you can officially close the book on Seattle besting Chicago in the standings.
