On Thursday, my colleague Dan Dukart wrote about top prospects Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson's performances at the IIHF World Championship so far.
While their performances may be used to help or hurt their respective draft stocks, it's important to be careful when using only this tournament to argue one prospect over the other. For example, in the 2016 World Championship, Patrik Laine finished fourth in scoring with 7-5--12 while Auston Matthews posted 6-3--9. Laine was the tournament's MVP, but that didn't stop the Maple Leafs from taking Matthews No. 1 overall that summer. At the 2019 tournament, Kaapo Kakko scored 6-1--7 while Jack Hughes posted just 0-3--3, and there was a real debate about who was going to go first in the draft before the Devils eventually selected Hughes with the top pick. In both situations, the team stuck with the top prospect before the World Championship, and in both situations, it worked out, because Matthews and Hughes are far better players than Laine and Kakko, respectively.
Now, to the 2023 Draft, Carlsson, Fantilli, and Will Smith, the top three centers that will be on the board after the Blackhawks select Connor Bedard first overall on June 28 in Nashville. Smith is not playing at the tournament, so let's focus on Fantilli and Carlsson.
In four games, Fantilli has posted 0-2--2 in 48:31 and Carlsson has recorded 1-1--2 in 59:05, so there's already a disparity in ice time. Another disparity is where the two players are in their respective lineups, as Carlsson has been Sweden's top-line center for the tournament while Fantilli has been Canada's 13th forward.
Tre Kronor stller upp med fljande formationer i dagens match mot sterrike, dr Jesper Wallstedt startar i det svenska mlet!
— Tre Kronor (@Trekronorse) May 14, 2023
Nedslpp 19.20 och ni ser matchen p plats i Tammerfors eller frn soffan p SVT2/play.
Nu hejar vi fram Sverige pic.twitter.com/q7oi0dG6Dg
How we start the week.
— Hockey Canada (@HockeyCanada) May 15, 2023
Voil comment nous commenons la semaine. #IIHFWorlds | #MondialIIHF pic.twitter.com/cQ7uDpGBKy
These are important pieces of context to consider when evaluating prospects. Maybe Carlsson will have a more productive tournament than Fantilli, but is it because he's a better player, or is it because he's playing on the top line while Fantilli is an extra skater?
Leo Carlsson with an excellent move to set up Lucas Raymond, and Sweden leads 7-1. #IIHFworlds pic.twitter.com/NnIC94amAv
— Steven Ellis (@SEllisHockey) May 18, 2023
Adam Fantilli set up Tyler Toffoli, who was stopped. But then Mathieu Joseph managed to score from the point to make it 2-1 Canada. #IIHFworlds pic.twitter.com/F5ls53po6H
— Steven Ellis (@SEllisHockey) May 14, 2023
It also doesn't, or at least shouldn't matter that Smith isn't playing in the tournament, especially since he just dominated the World U18 Championship, leading it in scoring with 9-11--20 in seven games and winning gold.
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) April 20, 2023
Will Smith with the tip and it's 3-0 Team USA!@usahockey | #U18MensWorlds pic.twitter.com/KdFLysw5QZ
Ultimately, the only opinions that matter on this topic are Jarmo Kekalainen's and his scouting staff, as they will be the ones making the pick at No. 3 overall.
So, if a certain prospect doesn't produce at the World Championship, it shouldn't and likely will not affect their draft stock.
