"Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win."
Yes, it's Gloria again from the 1990's comedy White Men Can't Jump.
Because for the Columbus Blue Jackets, the sentiment is so true. It's so, absolutely, unreservedly, unapologetically true.
As the NHL enters its final week of the regular season, there are still four teams that will have the best odds (twice as good as any other team, for all intents and purposes) to draft soon-to-be superstar Connor Bedard. At worst, that team will be assured a top three pick in a draft that has two other players with #1 potential.
The Blue Jackets are one of those four and, as of Monday morning, have the inside track at those just-mentioned best odds. Here's a snapshot of where things are positioned along the bottom-feeders in the league:
Anaheim's overtime loss against COL on Sunday night puts them two points ahead of #CBJ (and CHI), but the tiebreaker still is destined to belong to the Ducks based on regulation wins (it would take some wacky stuff to have Columbus need and win the tiebreak against Anaheim). pic.twitter.com/AvtSt5GEDD
— CBJ Stats (@BlueJacketStats) April 10, 2023
Now, best odds don't mean absolute odds. Even at finishing #32 in the league, there is still a three-out-of-four chance that Bedard plays his home games somewhere other than Nationwide Arena beginning this fall.
But the math is (spoiler) the math. The worst team in the league has an 88% better chance than any other team to draft him. And if it's not Bedard, they have a 100% chance at being able to take Michigan center Adam Fantilli or 18-year-old Leo Carlsson of the Swedish Hockey League, both who would likely make an immediate impact on the main roster.
Dropping to the second worst spot in the league, though? At that point, the odds are over 40% that the pick will not be a top three selection. Matvei Michkov, the presumed fourth pick, is more than a consolation prize — he's a top talent in the KHL and will score plenty of NHL goals one day. The problem is, one day is at least three years away — he's signed with the KHL until 2026.
As for third-worst? The odds of picking 5th are more than twice as good as picking second. That's dangerous territory of making the worst of a bad season.
And there it is. Right there. Pause. Pardon me, for a moment.
Look, I hate to use I, me, we, etc. in these pieces — but for just a moment, I'm going to break my own rule.
I have seen people (myself included) be told we're not real fans if we want our team to lose. That we should always root for our team to win. Gag me. Stop it. I've been invested in this team emotionally for nearly a quarter of a century and invested financially with season tickets for nearly a decade. In that time, I've watched bad teams turn good, I've seen Sidney Crosby skate circles around us and later skate circles with the Stanley Cup. I've seen Connor McDavid, Alex Ovechkin, Nathan MacKinnon, Patrick Kane, and Auston Matthews all do things that I've never (with apologies to Rick Nash, and to a lesser extent an apology to Artemi Panarin) seen a Columbus player do.
I want that here and this summer is our best chance at changing that. Why should I root for the Blue Jackets to win in Philadelphia on Tuesday night? Question: who is Jarmo Kekalainen rooting for this week? Answer: it ain't Columbus. I root for my team, not players. It's why I still I didn't become a Rangers fan when Nash was traded and why I didn't stop watching hockey when he retired.
It's a shit sandwich of a season, but I'm supposed to root for them to win and hope they finish 40 points out of a playoff spot instead of 42? So that we can again not get the franchise-changing player that so many other teams have gotten and now are having success with? Get real. The reason I want this team to lose this week is because I am a fan, not because I'm not. If that means it's a tough week for the 27th week in a row, fine. Good. Let's do it.
Okay, with that out of the way, let's take a look at this week and it's potential impact on a day-by-day basis.
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Monday
Right off the bat, there's plenty to watch for. Both the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks are in action. The Blackhawks play host to the Minnesota Wild, who still have plenty to play for. Chicago is 0-3-1 against Minnesota this season, but did pick up a point in the first home game. With Columbus owning a tiebreaker (that's almost a lock to stand) over the Blackhawks, a Chicago win would keep them behind Columbus — even if the Blue Jackets win one of their final three games (as long as the other two don't go into overtime). The Sharks are in Winnipeg to do battle with the Jets, who are fighting for their wildcard life. A win by San Jose would mean the Sharks will finish with a better record than the Blue Jackets as long as Columbus doesn't win out.
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Tuesday
A busy night for many reasons. The Blue Jackets are in Philadelphia for what seems to be the most winnable game of the week for Columbus. But 30 minutes after the puck drops in eastern Pennsylvania, one will drop in western PA — when the Penguins take on the Blackhawks. Pittsburgh is one point out of the final wildcard spot as of Monday morning, so there's (again) much at stake here. The night cap sees the Ducks back in action for their second-to-last game of the season — this one north of the border, against the Vancouver Canucks.
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Wednesday
The breathe day, if there is one. Only the Sharks are in action amongst the bottom four, and yet again, it's against an opponent fighting for a playoff spot — the Calgary Flames. Of course, by this point, this game might not matter: if the Sharks get a point in Winnipeg and Columbus loses Tuesday in regulation, the Sharks clinch a better record than Columbus.
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Thursday
What was scheduled to be the last day of the NHL's regular season will see all four teams in action. After Columbus and Pittsburgh start at 7:00 p.m., the Blackhawks have a puck-drop against the Flyers at 8:30 p.m. A half hour after that it's San Jose and Edmonton at 9:00 p.m., and the final game with the Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings kicks off at 10:00 p.m. There are too many variables that can change between Monday and Thursday, so suffice it to say: let's just root for those other three teams to win.
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Friday
This is day that pretty much belongs to the Blue Jackets. There is only one other game on the docket (another make-up game), but for the draft lottery purposes, it's all eyes on Nationwide. There is a high probability that the result of this game will impact where in the pecking order Columbus falls in the draft.
Embrace the suck, 5th Line. It's only for three more games.
