Adam Fantilli.
Ivan Provorov. Damon Severson. Mike Babcock to coach 'em up.
It's already been one hell of a week for the Columbus Blue Jackets.
...and now free agency starts?
A special Saturday edition of the Double Minor is in order. Let's roll.
ONE: SALARY CAP OVERVIEW
To know where the Blue Jackets might go, we first have to know where they are right now... financially.
The 2023-24 salary cap is set at $83.5 million. Columbus had roughly $15 million to work with a few weeks ago, but about two-thirds of that went to defensemen Damon Severson ($6.25 million) and Ivan Provorov ($4.72 million).
As of early Saturday morning, the Blue Jackets have $4.75 million available to them — but that's if they don't make any moves. General manager Jarmo Kekalainen has given plenty of indications that the team is not done adding to the roster and, at this point, two things are true:
(1) There are too many forwards and not enough spots.
(2) Addition by subtraction is probably in the cards.
Let's drill down on both. First, the forward situation. Something has to give. If no other changes were made to the roster, these are your locks (sorted by salary): Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic, Boone Jenner, Sean Kuraly, Eric Robinson, Alexandre Texier, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli. There's ten of the 12 spots, and that doesn't include Cole Sillinger (!), Yegor Chinakhov, Mathieu Olivier, Justin Danforth, or newcomer Dmitri Vornkov. We're already at five full lines (and I hear that spot is already occupied by 18,000 on the other side of the glass), and that still doesn't include guys like Liam Foudy, Emil Bemstrom. It's a weird spot to be in for a team that finished 31st in the league just three months ago, but just because it's weird doesn't mean it's not accurate.
Which leads us to item two: the Blue Jackets would be wise, both financially and strategically, to unclog the pipes a bit. Roslovic will be an unrestricted free agent after the coming season and is a $4 million dollar cap hit. Robinson is also a UFA after 2023-24, and while his $1.6 million isn't a significant salary to take on, would it make sense to use that money elsewhere and, at the same time, give yourself a little bit of breathing room as it relates to the cap? Then there's Andrew Peeke, who might be the odd defenseman out and, at $2.75 million, could give Columbus some room should they decide to add a higher-priced name.
TWO: FREE AGENCY BEGINS
There is no doubt that Fantilli's fall to Columbus changed the Blue Jackets offseason plans a bit. Acquiring a top-line center is no longer a must. In fact, considering the aforementioned salary cap and roster limitations, it seems like Columbus may be somewhat quite in free agency.
But if you are of the belief that Columbus would rather have goaltender Daniil Tarasov getting regular starting time in Cleveland as opposed to being the #2 guy behind Elvis Merzlikins with the big club, then you are two things: (1) correct, and (2) going to be curious who may be available to the Blue Jackets in the goalie market. The hiring of Niklas Backstrom as the club's goaltending coach was certainly a move made to help Merzlikins, who has struggled mightily over the last two seasons. But it may not end there. Could a veteran goalie enter the fold? Certainly seems that way and there are plenty out there this summer. Some names to keep an eye on: Jaroslav Halak, Antti Raanta, and Martin Jones. Former Blue Jacket goalie Joonas Korpisalo is also a free agent, but a reunion seems unlikely.
Aside from that, what other need does Columbus have right now? Again, a weird-but-true statement. There's no defenseman available that would be worth it and Columbus' pairings seem fairly well set. The forwards are already log-jammed but if a move is made to free up some salary space and an impactful player is available, it'd be natural to think the club would at least have to investigate it. For example: imagine the presence a guy like Ryan O'Reilly could have on Fantilli. It seems like a longshot, but isn't this around the same time of year Gaudreau came to Columbus in 2022? In each of the last two weeks, J.T. Compher's name has been mentioned. He would give the Blue Jackets an option at center that could free up Jenner to return to the wing. (Note: O'Reilly has since signed with the Nashville Predators.)
THREE: POTENTIAL TRADE PARTNERS
This is where things start to get a little more interesting and you can just about focus narrow it down to (yet again) the center position. Fantilli is, at some point, the club's top center. But is he that guy this year? Probably not. Although with Kekalainen in win-now mode, would it make sense to go after a 1C to pair with Gaudreau and Laine? That lets Jenner get back on the wing and would add veteran stability to a second line with Fantilli and Marchenko (or Johnson... again, log-jam).
Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the Blue Jackets and Sharks have had conversations about Tomas Hertl. That made more sense before the draft, but Hertl's making north of $8 million per year through the end of the decade and that's a huge financial commitment (both in length and dollar amount) for a team that feels they drafted a soon-to-be top center in Fantilli.
Winnipeg's Mark Scheifele is available and, both financially and contractually, makes more sense. The Jets alternate captain is entering the final year of a contract the carries a cap hit of just over $6 million. The fit may be a question mark, though, as there was chatter after Laine's trade to Columbus in 2021 that his relationship with Scheifele was part of the reason he requested out.
Then, of course, there's the Elias Lindholm situation. He'll make $4.85 million this year before hitting unrestricted free agency this time next year, and there's no doubt he'll be in for a big raise. He's a proven commodity — especially with Gaudreau during their time together in Calgary — but would cost Columbus two good prospects and a draft pick, at least. Would Kekalainen do that without any assurance that he would stick around long-term? Still, it's fun to consider a top six of Gaudreau—Lindholm—Laine and Jenner—Fantilli—Marchenko/Johnson. (One of those guys would be on the third line?!)
FOUR: FRANCHISE-CHANGING DRAFT?
There were some whispers in the 24 to 36 hours leading up to the draft that the smoke screen the Anaheim Ducks were putting out were not, in fact, smoke screens at all: they really were going to take Leo Carlsson over Adam Fantilli. Columbus really liked Will Smith — they almost certainly would have taken the future Boston College Eagle over Carlsson had Anaheim opted for Fantilli, as originally assumed.
But when Fantilli dropped to Columbus, it was just the beginning of what has the potential to be a franchise-altering draft. If he comes to fruition, Fantilli will be either the best or second-best pick in club history, behind Rick Nash. Not bad company to be in.
In round two, Fantilli's teammate and college roommate Gavin Brindley heard his name called by the Blue Jackets. Brindley has round-one talent and was projected to go Wednesday in most mock drafts. NHL.com writers Adam Kimelman and Mike G. Morreale both had Brindley going in the opening round (27th and 29th, respectively), with Morreale saying that at 29, he is "is too good to pass up at (that) point." Brindley will be an NHL player.
Columbus opted for William Whitelaw and Andrew Strathmann in rounds three and four. The two were teammates in the USHL with Youngstown, and both went roughly one round later than expected. Luca Pinelli, another fourth-rounder (118 overall), was rated as high as #37 and only as low as #82 by a combined 14 prospect ranking sites.
Even if the club's last three picks (goaltender Melvin Strahl and forwards Oiva Keskinen and Tyler Peddle) don't work out, the Blue Jackets first five selections separated them from much of the pack.
It also gives them, perhaps, the best farm system in the NHL. That may be short-lived, though, because it sure seems like the farm is on the way to the capital.
