The Columbus Blue Jackets have made the Stanley Cup Playoffs in four consecutive seasons.
Their temporary Central Division counterparts are not going to let them make it five straight without a fight.
Quick disclaimer: Yes, these are early. But in the pandemic-shortened season, the Blue Jackets have already played a fifth of their schedule, and it's never too early to take a look around the division and see how the (temporary) rivals stack up.
Let's look at the Central Division standings. Don't pay too much attention to point-pace for the teams; there are other things that deserve more attention - and may be more of a cause for concern.
| CENTRAL DIVISION | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | PACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAROLINA | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 96.0 |
| FLORIDA | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 102.7 |
| DALLAS | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 88.0 |
| TAMPA BAY | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 88.0 |
| COLUMBUS | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 56.0 |
| CHICAGO | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 50.9 |
| NASHVILLE | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 49.8 |
| DETROIT | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 33.6 |
It starts out simple: Through 11 games, the Blue Jackets are at 11 points. In a 56 game season, the club is on pace for 56 points.
But, something odd is happening in the standings thus far - even for early in the season.
Four teams have played seven or less games. The other four have played nine or more games. The four teams with the fewest games played are in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the standings. They've combined to win 21 of 27 games, and have picked up an impressive 83% (45 of 54) of their possible points.
The other four - which the Blue Jackets are a part of - are in 5th, 6th, 7th, and last place in the Central. They've combined to win just 13 games out of 41, which is 43% (35 out of 82) of their possible points.
UPSIDE DOWN & INSIDE OUT: The four teams with the most points in the Central Division are the teams who have played the fewest games.
If you're keeping score at home, that bottom four have 61% of the wins that the top four have - but in 152% of the games.
Ouch.
This will balance out to some degree, certainly. But in this sprint of a season, time is of the essence. The top four teams in each of the NHL's four divisions will make the postseason; the other four (or three, in the North [Canadian] Division) will be at home in just three months time, when the regular season comes to an end.
Could it just be some weird anomaly to start the season?
Maybe. But two of those four teams in the top half of the standings are the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Dallas Stars. The Lightning aren't going anywhere, and if the Stars do go somewhere, it'll be in a rocket ship to fetch their out-of-this-world powerplay.
Pending disaster by either of those teams, the two teams that met in last year's Stanley Cup Final will be right back in the postseason this spring.
That leaves six teams for two spots: Columbus, Florida, Carolina, Nashville, Chicago, and Detroit.
Carolina was a team most people thought could make some noise, despite questions in net. Turns out, their combination of Petr Mrazek and James Reimer have an answer to that question thus far: Carolina leads the league in goals against, allowing a microscopic 1.86 goals against. Perspective: Colorado is 2nd, at more than a quarter more (2.18) than that. Most pundits had the Hurricanes penciled in for a playoff spot despite their goaltending. If it stays this good, look out. If it comes back to earth, this team is still likely good enough to get one of those two open spots.
So by process of elimination, we have four teams to battle it out for that final spot. Columbus, Florida, Nashville, and Chicago. (Sorry, Red Wings.)
Columbus, Florida, Nashville, and Chicago: Four Teams For just One playoff Spot? maybe.
The Blackhawks have been a surprise, as the team that's been decimated with injuries and COVID-19 protocols has points in seven of their first 11 games, just like the Blue Jackets. Chicago (-6) actually has an ever-so-slightly better goal differential than Columbus (-7) so far. It's hard to imagine Chicago can keep this up, though. They are jettisoned from the nominees for the final spot.
This means Columbus will do battle against Florida and Nashville for that final spot. The Predators are just 2-5-0 after defeating the Blue Jackets in the first two games of the season, but those five losses have been to the three teams that are penciled in for the postseason above: Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Carolina. Nashville, like Columbus, needs to figure out how to score more: The two teams are 27th and 28th in goals per game. Nashville may not make the postseason, but they'll - at the very least - be a pest to contend with all season.
That leaves the Florida Panthers, otherwise known as the Blue Jackets south campus. Five former Jackets, including Sergei Bobrovsky, are part of a rocking start by the Panthers. They've picked up a point in all six of their games this season, winning five of them (their overtime loss was at Nationwide Arena). This team looks better than they were advertised, and have one of the elite coaches of the 21st century in Joel Quenneville.
Do Florida and Chicago continue to play at an enhanced rate? Can Nashville find enough goals to stay competitive? Is Carolina a team that can contend with Dallas and Tampa Bay for the top spots in the division?
More questions than answers at this point, yes. But we're at least figuring out what those questions are.
If the Blue Jackets can't become more of an offensive threat, though, they're questions that may not matter.
