For perhaps the first time in their history, the Columbus Blue Jackets have a glut of talent and depth on the blueline.
Heading into last season, Zach Werenski and Markus Nutivaara had not yet played in the NHL. Seth Jones was still acclimating himself to life in Columbus, and Ryan Murray was still a fixture on the power play.
Enter Gabriel Carlsson, who, until a few months ago, was wrapping up his regular season with Linköping HC of the Swedish Hockey League. Considering he had never played a professional game in North America, expectations were non-existent. And given that the Blue Jackets were in the thick of a playoff race, his call-up after a three-game stint with the Cleveland Monsters caught many off guard - but John Tortorella inserted him right into the lineup in Game 81.
After such a short stint with the team, did Carlsson do enough to prove to Blue Jackets brass that he's ready for the grind of an 82-game NHL season?
The Case For
A first-round pick in 2015 (29th overall), there was never a doubt that Carlsson eventually had the potential to play in the NHL. In his limited NHL time in 2016-17, he was solid with the puck and showed poise of a player beyond his 20 years. Carlsson played more than 17 minutes a night in two regular season games and averaged nearly 11 minutes/game in his five playoff games. All said, he played more minutes in the playoffs than Kyle Quincey, Scott Harrington, and Markus Nutivaara.
Overall, his play was utilitarian. He's not Werenski, but he wasn't drafted to be an offensive dynamo that could run a power play. He was brought in - at the draft and in April - to be a solid, sturdy defenseman that requires no maintenance. His positive shot differential and an assist in two regular season games indicated that he could be a serviceable player, at the least, even in a bottom-pairing role.
Also, in a salary cap world, every player must be thought of as an asset. Carlsson has about as appealing a contract as you could ever hope for, with three years remaining on his entry-level deal at a cap hit of $894,166 per season (before bonuses). Perhaps his affordability helps him crack a lineup that could be up against the cap to start the season.
The Case Against
The Blue Jackets have one of the youngest defense corps in the NHL. Quincey was brought in at the deadline to help provide experience for the playoff run, but he's an unrestricted free agent (UFA) and unlikely to be retained. It wouldn't be a shock if GM Jarmo Kekalainen looks to make a similar move in the offseason to bring in a steady, stay-at-home, defenseman.
Again, it's worth repeating that Carlsson has only played in seven NHL games between the regular season and the playoffs.
If that's the case, it could mean that Carlsson would be sent to AHL Cleveland, which isn't the worst thing for a 20-year-old's development. It would give him a chance to play bigger minutes and have a more defined role than he may have with the Blue Jackets. Parlaying off of that, and this isn't an indictment of Carlsson, but he was never a dominant force in the SHL. His development in Sweden didn't suggest that he was ready for such an intense workload at the NHL level, and perhaps management likes the idea of him being just up I-71.
The Verdict: Very Likely
Even without knowing the results of the upcoming Expansion Draft, it's safe to assume that Carlsson has made a strong case to stay with the big club come October. If Weresnki, Jones, Savard, and Johnson are the top two pairs, that leaves some combination of Ryan Murray, Markus Nutivaara, Scott Harrington, and Carlsson as the remaining three defensemen on the current roster.
That's assuming nothing changes between now and October, but there's a possibility that Jack Johnson is taken by Vegas and/or Ryan Murray is traded for offensive firepower. With or without a departure (or two), Gabriel Carlsson should have a permanent home in Columbus.
