I’ve got some questions about this “the Blue Jackets can’t beat good teams” thing.
And listen, I get it: there is empirical evidence that supports the idea. They have lost their five games (four in regulation, one in a shootout) to the teams bunched atop the league standings — but can't the same be said for every team at some point?
The Chicago Blackhawks beat up on the Blue Jackets in their second game of the season. They also dropped 10 goals on the Pittsburgh Penguins. In the grand scheme, aren’t the Blackhawks still the Blackhawks, and the Penguins and Blue Jackets still among the league’s “good” teams? Yes, they are.
Over the course of a season, teams are going to fire on all cylinders. When they are, it’s tough for any team to beat them. Hell, it’s hard enough to win in the NHL as it is. The Blue Jackets went on a 16-game bender last year and no matter what the opposition did, they lost. Curtis McElhinney made 44 saves to beat the Los Angeles Kings and keep that streak alive…so yes, shit happens.
When it’s going well, it’s going well and we’re seeing a lot of that right now with the teams the Blue Jackets are facing. It evens out.
Everyone wants to win every game. But the quality of competition in today’s NHL is more about who’s white-hot rather than who’s generally good. Two generally good teams get together and the outcome is close to a coin flip. One good team and one hot team get together, and the odds favor the hot team. That’s the way it is.
Let’s look at the teams the Blue Jackets have lost games to.
Chicago Blackhawks: Opened the season on a ridiculous scoring binge and scored 15 goals in their first two games. The Blue Jackets weren’t great, but wasn’t the result kind of predictable? Yes, because the Blackhawks were feeling it. It happens.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Unbeatable out of the gate.
Los Angeles Kings: See above.
St. Louis Blues: Among the NHL’s top 2-3 teams in late October. Lost on the second night of a back-to-back on their third game in four nights. And we’re concerned about this?
Sure enough, the Blue Jackets and Lightning saw each other again two weeks later and the game was, by and large, dead even.
Some things to consider:
1. The Blue Jackets are one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL. To get precise, they’re fourth overall in shot attempts (53.5%) and sixth in scoring chances for (52%). Their PDO is hovering right around normal/expected, in the 101 range. They’re not overly lucky, they’re just good. See the below visual from Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey):
2. The Blue Jackets’ share of expected goals is…large. It’s the best in the Metropolitan Division and one of the best in the NHL, according to the fine work of Mr. Tierney.
3. Their power play hasn’t helped them one bit. Consider what their record could be if they’d gotten anything 5-on-4? At even strength, where the elite teams separate themselves, the Blue Jackets are routinely outplaying their opponents.
4. The combined record of the teams Columbus has lost to — at the time they played them — is a staggering 29-5-5. While it’s true the Blue Jackets have lost to good teams, they’ve lost to teams that were flat rolling out of the gate.
If you ask me, we should alter “the Blue Jackets can’t beat good teams” to “the Blue Jackets haven’t yet beaten the league’s hottest teams,” which isn't all that easy. That’s kind of how teams get hot in the first place, right?
NO DICE ON THAT PRICE
The Blue Jackets just couldn’t go there for Matt Duchene.
Ottawa paid a huge price. Nashville gets a player they need. Colorado gets some quality pieces and picks, but a first-round pick that should be a late first. Columbus wanted the player, of course, but not at the price Joe Sakic was adhering to throughout the summer and into training camp.
Duchene, 27, would be a great fit here.
But the acquisition cost, if it were anywhere close to what Ottawa and Nashville paid, would be brutal for the Blue Jackets. You’re talking high-end prospects, draft picks, etc…the very pieces that they used to build their roster that won 50 games last season.
No can do, if you’re Jarmo Kekalainen. But give Sakic some credit here because he rode this out and got what he wanted, even if it took a month of the season and a few close calls along the way. The Avalanche are in good shape and can now continue to reshape their team, while the Senators and Predators believe last night’s trade puts them one step closer to serious contention.
YOU SHOULD BE READING
- The emergence of Pierre-Luc Dubois as an option at center is good news for the Jackets.
- High-scoring QMJHL forward Max Fortier is officially in the fold as a Columbus prospect.
- Brandon Dubinsky's first goal of the season came in a big spot for the rallying Blue Jackets.
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