The Blue Jackets find themselves on the brink of elimination heading into Game 4 on Tuesday night at Nationwide Arena. Can they make a series of it, or at the very least, force a Game 5 back in Pittsburgh?
Our own Rob Mixer, Jeff Svoboda, Sam Blazer and Nick Vogel break down the state of the series, Sergei Bobrovsky's play, and the value of this playoff experience for a young Blue Jackets team.
First things first: do the Blue Jackets extend this series beyond Game 4? If so, why?
Jeff Svoboda: I'm actually very fascinated to see how Columbus responds after such a gutting loss. I certainly don't expect the Blue Jackets to quit in any sense of the word, but this is about as tough a situation one can face in the playoffs, down 3-0 and facing an elimination game after an OT setback. John Tortorella talked about how it's "human nature" to ease up after clinching a playoff spot; I'd argue it's also human nature to see the mountain ahead and be just a tad discouraged. Add in the loss of Zach Werenski, which should leave a huge hole on the defense, and I can't rationally sit here and pick a Columbus win. Sports aren't always rational, though, I will say that.
Rob Mixer: No, it wouldn’t surprise me, just because it’s very difficult to sweep a playoff series. But the Blue Jackets are obviously battling up a mountain here. Zach Werenski’s injury is a killer, and the subpar goaltending they’re currently getting from Sergei Bobrovsky basically means they have to score three or four goals to win. Insult to injury: they scored four goals in Game 3 and lost.
Sam Blazer: It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they won Game 4 of the series, it wouldn’t really mean much as the series is pretty much done for. Bobrovsky has had a terrible series thus far, having a stellar game wouldn’t be out of the norm. Losing Werenski though is absolutely heartbreaking. They don’t have anyone in the lineup or in the prospect pipeline that can replicate what he does, he changes the game when the puck is on his stick. I could see them winning Game 4 but not anything past that. It’ll be a long summer for the Blue Jackets.
Nick Vogel: I do not think the Blue Jackets extend the series past game 4, and if by some miracle they do, I believe Pittsburgh closes the series in Game 5. Losing Werenski killed all hope of getting back into the series. When he was injured during the later part of the season, the Blue Jackets struggled mightily. He is one of the best puck movers on the team, and when the Blue Jackets cannot get the puck to the forwards quickly, they get pinned in their own zone and that causes a lot of problems. Not to mention he was the power play QB and without him, the struggling power play might stay mediocre.
How would you assess the play of Sergei Bobrovsky in the series?
RM: Man, it’s hard to point the finger at the guy, but it’s just not been good enough. He’s going to win the Vezina Trophy and may be in the running for the Hart Trophy, but even he would tell you his game hasn’t been sharp in the first three games of this series. It’s a shame, too, because he was, other than Zach Werenski, probably the main factor behind the Blue Jackets’ 50-win and 106-point season that saw them challenge for the Presidents’ Trophy deep into the season. This time of year is brutally unforgiving and it's unfortunately another blemish on his postseason resume.
JS: There is little arguing that Bob hasn't exactly been Bob in this series, which is unfortunate because they needed him to be Bob with a capital B. His regular-season stats scream Vezina but his playoff numbers don't, and Columbus really needed him to be the best goalie in the world while facing the Penguins. I don't think he's been awful -- he's made a number of big saves, especially in Game 3 -- but he hasn't been good enough to win against a Pens team that can fill the net. He didn't get much help in either of the first two games, though his Game 2 mistake in the first period was a killer and just can't happen. Bobrovsky has also clearly had some issues tracking the puck, especially when it gets south of the goal line, and Pittsburgh increasingly has tried to take advantage of that throughout the series. It's been a tough series to be a goalie in, though, as many of the plays have just been a bit weird or fluky. Sometimes, that causes you to fight it. Unfortunately for Bobrovsky, he's fighting it at the worst possible time.
SB: I agree with a lot of what Jeff has said about Bobrovsky, it is just a different player. That being said, he is the person that got you to this point. The Blue Jackets would have never been in this series without him. Plenty of nights in the regular season he has bailed out the team, the Blue Jackets offense almost bailed him out in Game 3. He hasn’t been himself, over the course of his contract, you can’t mention many times where he has been this poor. Maybe this is some regression or maybe the Penguins are that good, either way, it hurts the team and it’ll be a narrative over the entire summer.
NV: Although he has a good chance to win the Vezina, Sergei Bobrovsky has not been Vezina caliber in the playoffs. It seems that he always struggles in the playoffs, and I still haven't figured out why that is. I've noticed that the Penguins will throw the puck at the net from anywhere on the ice, and they have been rewarded with a few goals hitting off Bobrovsky and deflecting into the net. It's on Bobrovsky to make the “easy” saves, goals like Jake Guentzel’s 2nd should never happen in the playoffs. He was out of position and beat from a terrible angle. I do not think the blame is solely on Bobrovsky, I think the team really misses having Ryan Murray in the lineup to balance out the minutes. Most people consider Bobrovsky the only superstar on the Blue Jackets, and to keep that title he needs to be better.
John Tortorella has largely stuck with the same lineup through all four games. Agree, disagree or indifferent on that decision?
NV: I have two issues with John Tortorella’s lines in the playoffs. The first being that he never found a way to get Brandon Saad going; although I am not entirely sure if it is Saad being mismanaged, or just playing poorly. Yes he had a nice goal, but this was somebody who took his game to another level with the Chicago Blackhawks in the playoffs. I was hoping Tortorella could find a way to create matchups that favored Saad and that he would be fed a lot of minutes in the games. The second issue that I have is Tortorella playing Sonny Milano. I am not even sure Milano saw the ice in the third period of Game 3. He just does not seem ready for the NHL yet. I think it hurt the team to play him instead of veteran depth guys like Lauri Korpikoski, especially if it is going to be in a bottom-six role. Korpikoski is a much better two-way player than Milano at this time in their careers.
JS: Put me in for indifferent when it comes to the lineup. It was a surprise to see him go with the Harrington-Carlsson defensive pair, but his point about Kyle Quincey's lack of food speed (skate speed in hockey?) against the blazing fast Pens is a fair one, and as much as I like Markus Nutivaara's potential, his game didn't appear playoff ready as the season neared a close. There really wasn't a great option here, and going with Quincey or Nutivaara likely would have led to similar complaints even if they were more conventional choices. Up front, Milano probably made the most sense to go in during Game 3, but it quickly became clear the way Pittsburgh was attacking that the game was probably a smidge above his level. You could argue about sitting Saad for Game 1, but Bjorkstrand was flying, and you could find fault with playing the fourth line as much as he has, but you gotta play somebody. Strategically, we could argue the team's focus on physical play, but you also have to tip your hat and say the Pens are just really good, too.
RM: I’m stunned that Markus Nutivaara can’t get a look in this series. From the start of the season, he’s been a lineup regular and even singled out by Tortorella on a few occasions for his puck-moving and the ability to skate the puck out of trouble. He had a rough stretch late in the year, but really, who on this club didn't? Tortorella’s reasoning that Kyle Quincey struggles with the speed of the series is valid, but it’s not like the Carlsson-Harrington third pairing has been without its issues. I’m of the belief that, when things aren’t going well, it’s not the worst idea to make a tweak or two...but the coach obviously feels different.
SB: As far as his lineup goes, I’m more or less indifferent. Harrington was sparingly used during the regular season so it is a bit of a head-scratcher and Carlsson had little to no experience in the league before they threw him into this series. Other than Game 1 when both really stuck out, they’ve been serviceable. It speaks volumes about how they feel about Nutivaara and Quincey. I do believe Quincey’s lack of skating ability would hurt him in this series. Nutivaara may be an upgrade on both of them, yet in reality, the difference was likely negligible. The real issue that I have with Tortorella is his usage offensively. He either doesn’t trust certain players or has too much faith in others. Oliver Bjorkstrand has been flying all series long and constantly putting pucks on net. Put him in a position to succeed. Similarly, Brandon Saad has been one of your best forwards this season and his lack of ice time is frustrating and puzzling. Rather than noticing poor matchups and adapting, bullheaded decisions have ruled the series.
What do you think the Blue Jackets can learn from this series?
SB: That skill is going to win out about 99% of the time. The Blue Jackets wanted to be physical with the Penguins and they found that putting a team with two of the top five players in the world on the power play is a losing formula. The Blue Jackets have skill all throughout their lineup and they’re only going to get better with players beginning to make their mark with the team. Despite a 16-game winning streak, this was never going to be their year and this year shouldn’t be considered a failure either. Only one team wins the Cup, every other team is a loser that didn’t win it. Play your game and dominate, don’t deviate from what you were all season. This year will be a learning process for the players but also for the coaching staff as well.
NV: They say that sometimes you have to learn how to lose, before you can win in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Just look at the first time Crosby and the Penguins made the playoffs -- they lost in 5 games. Hopefully this series opens up the players' eyes to see what it takes to win in the postseason. The silver lining in this series is that the Blue Jackets have one of the youngest teams in the league and should be back next year. There were multiple players playing in their first-ever Stanley Cup series, and it's only going to benefit those players in the long run playing against two of the best players in the league. Whenever the series ends, I hope the Blue Jackets look back and realize there is a lot of work that needs to be done in order for them to take that next step in the playoffs. Ideally the players come into next season a little bit wiser, but more importantly with a chip on their shoulder that they can use as motivation.
JS: Experience is good, so the Jackets will leave with some of that, but frankly I'm not sure there's a ton to be taken from this series if it ends in short order. For all the talk about how this team hasn't been in this position before, the bulk of the forwards were on the team in 2014. It's been good for players like Seth Jones, Zach Werenski and Gabriel Carlsson to get some playoff time in, but it's not like those guys hadn't played in big hockey games before. It is true in hockey that sometimes you have to build up to playoff success, but a first-round exit (especially one that could very well end in four games) isn't exactly much in the way of seasoning. It should be motivating, though, both to the players (who will likely leave with a bitter taste in their mouths) and the organization (which now very clearly sees how it compares to a team like Pittsburgh).
RM: My colleagues here all make valid points, but I also think the Blue Jackets are going to learn the importance of sticking with the program for the entirety of the regular season. You can say it’s human nature to let up late in the season and coast into the playoffs, but there are more teams that went in humming than went in sputtering. The Blue Jackets’ 1-6-0 limp to the finish line cost them home-ice advantage and a shot at the Presidents’ Trophy, setting up this brutal first-round matchup against Pittsburgh. Would home ice have changed the outcome of the series? It’s hard to say “yes,” but some of the offensive/execution issues that plagued them in March and April have followed them into the playoffs. Weird, right?
