Winning in overtime, especially in hockey, is exhilarating.
The introduction of 3-on-3 has changed the game and many will argue it's for the better. If you have a skilled club, it's a remarkable advantage to put in your back pocket when needed.
The Columbus Blue Jackets know this. They've had success winning in overtime with a 6-2 record overall during the extra frame. This includes a win courtesy of Zach Werenski against the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday night; while 3-on-3 is a test of skill, going into the shootout is a more dicey proposition.
538, the Nate Silver-led stats site wrote an article about overtime and the likelihood you go to it during the season. The results are fascinating.
While overtime rates have been consistently higher in the current point system, the late-season change is dramatic. Roughly two-thirds of the way through the season, OT rates spike; in the old system, without the loser point, rates plummeted late in the season. Spring is now the NHL’s overtime season.
The other way the game changes: Nonconference games become a lot more passive for both teams. The flip side of that is that teams try to win more often against in-conference teams.
The Blue Jackets are picking up points now, which isn't a bad thing, but going into the shootout as often as they have is essentially a coin flip. Studies on shooters have shown that randomness is what helps players score against most people. Only the best of the best at the shootout have shown that it is, in fact, a repeatable skill but even then, people question its validity.
T.J. Oshie, Frans Nielsen, and Jonathan Toews are the few players that score with consistency during that time. The Blue Jackets have a couple of players that do well during the shootout, but hoping and praying that it works out for your team is a fool's errand.
Going nine rounds in the shootout is just asking for trouble and a weapon like Sergei Bobrovsky is a great neutralizer to have.
"You don't. You let them go. I was having fun watching it," said head coach John Tortorella when asked if he needed to settle his team down before the shootout against Detroit. "I looked over at (Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill) and he's laughing as far as some of the things that went on. It's so hard to coach 3-on-3, so we don't even bother."
It isn't encouraging to see those words. The Blue Jackets may be more skilled or they may have more luck but continuing to rely on the extra frame to produce points is a very bad idea.
