It's that time of year.
Speculation, rumors, and maybe even some actual trades.
The Blue Jackets are on the playoff line and need a strong stretch run to get into the postseason for a second straight year. GM Jarmo Kekalainen faces tough decisions, trying to bolster the roster while managing their future as well.
Our staff has plenty to tackle, so let's get right into the conversation:
You’re Jarmo Kekalainen and the Blue Jackets are one point out of a playoff spot. Do you buy or sell?
Sam Blazer: At this point, you have to be a buyer just looking at the team and the fans. This is going to be your core give or take a few pieces. The shooting percentage woes have been horrible and they need a kick in the pants more than they need a dismantling. They could be both a buyer and a seller as well without losing much but if they want the fans to buy into this team, they need to be buying as well.
Kyle Morrison: Jarmo’s no doubt had a plan this whole time – I’d imagine that it’s buying, and using Jack Johnson as a means to do so – and it’s tough to picture him abandoning that when the team is so close to the playoffs. That said, I’m a huge fan of trade deadline chaos, and Jarmo doesn’t have to look far for inspiration on how to retool at the deadline for immediate and future success. The Cavs blew it all up and came out of deadline day younger, faster and hungrier.
It’s not a perfect roadmap – the Cavs had the luxury of a soft cap and the ability to build around the GOAT – but the Jackets could potentially have their cake and eat it too. This team’s veterans don’t compliment the strengths of the new core (Panarin, Dubois, Werenski, Jones, Bjorkstrand, Wennberg) especially well. Boone Jenner and David Savard have been good soldiers, but they’d fetch more than Calvert and Johnson, respectively, and their combined trade value would allow the Jackets to acquire future assets, bring back a couple of players who fit the team identity better, and give bigger assignments to younger guys who have shown they deserve more (Nutivaara, Bjorkstrand).
Conventional wisdom would say that those moves wait for draft day, but beneath this team’s (lately) lethargic, bloated appearance are the bones of a contender.
Dan Dukart: My philosophy on professional sports leads me to sell, but with nuance. I understand how much it would mean for this franchise to make the playoffs for the second consecutive season for the first time in their existence. Last year, Nashville was an 8-seed and swept #1 Chicago, so the “just get in” folks have some credence. However, the goal in professional sports is to win a championship. This team is not close to a Stanley Cup contender as they’re currently playing, and it’s not like they’re one tweak away, either.
All this is to say that if I’m Jarmo, I trade Jack Johnson and Matt Calvert (pending UFA’s). Getting value for Johnson and Calvert is a must, and signing Boone Jenner and Ryan Murray (pending RFA's) to team-friendly contracts is fine, but I wouldn’t mind a much larger shake up if the prices makes sense. This team clearly needs more offense, so a sell while buying would be my best-case scenario.
Paul Berthelot: I’d buy personally. The team is (currently in) a playoff spot, and they just need a couple things to break right for them. If they can squeak into the playoffs they will be a team to be reckoned with. They pile up a ton of shots and if those start going in, this team could be beat anyone. They have a goalie who can steal a series when he’s on. If the team can add a player who can score and get their shooting percentage to rebound, I think they have a real shot at making noise in the playoffs.
If the Blue Jackets are still in the mix come Monday afternoon, how would you handle the Jack Johnson situation?
SB: I would have sold him two months ago for whatever they were offering then. He is going to be one of the top defensemen on the market and holding out until the last second might land them a good player/pick. Depending on how they want to handle it is entirely how this deal will get done. If they go with a draft pick, they may move him sooner, but if they want a player, that may need to be worked on until the deadline. The Blue Jackets have a depth issue on defense, especially of the high-end variety, but they can easily make a change this summer both in free agency and in the draft.
KM: Playoff Jack™ is a beast, but I’d ship him out of town in a heartbeat. Sign me up for that late first-rounder, or package him with another asset to bring in a top-six forward who can generate some offense. Right now, he’s the fourth-best left handed defenseman on this roster – and I’m not convinced that there’s a huge gap between him and the next three on the depth chart (Scott Harrington, Dean Kukan, Gabriel Carlsson). It’d be irresponsible to keep him and lose him for nothing in the summer, given that they can turn him into a more meaningful rental or a valuable future asset.
DD: I would trade him to the highest bidder. Pierre Lebrun reported that the Blue Jackets were offered a late first round pick. If that’s true, the only rational explanation I would accept as to why he’s not already been traded is that they were first waiting on Ryan Murray to return to the lineup. Johnson is not going to re-sign with this team in July, so may as well get what you can for him while there is still a market for him. I understand a late first-round pick wouldn’t help in the immediate season, but at a minimum it’s a great currency to use going forward.
PB: If the reports are true that a late first round pick is on the table, this trade should already be done. Sure a first round pick is not the scoring forward you need but it can certainly be used in another trade. If not, this team traded away their first last season and their prospect pool has taken the hit. It wouldn’t be a bad thing entering the draft with two firsts.
Can the Blue Jackets make the playoffs without any changes?
SB: Yes. There is a distinct chance that if they do nothing they could make the playoffs still. It isn’t really saying anything about the team itself but more about the team’s around them that continue to drop like flies. The Blue Jackets have holes in their team but not like the Hurricanes, Islanders and Rangers. Those are holes that will sink your ship. The Blue Jackets are just solid enough to get by and keep on winning.
KM: Yes, but it’d be more of a product of everyone else around them collectively shitting the bed. The Islanders can’t stop anyone from generating shots, while Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Griess don’t inspire much confidence in net. The Devils are in the same boat as the Blue Jackets, but with a worse goalie tandem. Carolina’s young and talented, but lacks scoring depth (hey, so do the Blue Jackets). The Jackets have games in hand on both of those teams, and this team defies logic sometimes. So, yeah, it’s possible, but they’re in the same boat as two other flawed squads on the path towards the eight seed.
DD: Can they? Yes. Will they? I wouldn’t bet on it. Call me a pessimist, but since their 16-game winning streak came to an end in January of 2017, they’ve not been a team you can trust to win a big game, let alone play consistently well for stretches. The only possible exception to that could be October and November of 2017, when this season had only just begun. Coaches and players love to talk about how the intensity of games ramp up after the holiday’s as team’s get to their highest gear. The Blue Jackets haven’t done that in two years. Why would they start now?
PB: I think they can and I am going to beat this drum until the season is over. The Jackets are last in the league in shooting percentage. I know a lot goes into that, but a big part it is just bad luck. No bounces have gone their way this season. At some point, these shots are going to drop and it’s going to rain goals. We saw a glimpse of that against the Devils and Islanders last week. More of those games are coming.
It’s no secret the Blue Jackets are looking for a scoring forward. Unfortunately, they’ve got a lot of company. Who’s your top target?
SB: If you’re looking for speed and you’re looking for scoring, why not go after Mike Hoffman? He's a player who lights it up and always finds his way on the score sheet. He would cost a little more than a rental and it would mean that futures are going back the other way, but how do the Blue Jackets view themselves? Are they contenders or pretenders? This solidly puts them in the contenders camp.
KM: He won’t light up the score sheet, but I’d love to see Jean-Gabriel Pageau in a Blue Jackets uniform. He’s a hustle player who plays a checking role and has been bogged down with less-than-stellar line mates in Ottawa, but he can play a skilled role when his team needs him to, as evidenced by a four-goal game against the Rangers in last year’s playoffs. The price may be steep, but it’s nothing the Jackets can’t swing, and his cap hit ($3.1 million) and term (signed through 2019-20) make him a potentially great fit. Snag him up, put him with skilled line mates, and he could make this team a hell of a lot more competitive come April.
DD: Thomas Vanek. He’s a scoring winger on an expiring contract. Vancouver will look to move him as they’re well out of a playoff spot. If he does well with the Blue Jackets and there is mutual admiration, maybe they’d explore the option of bringing him back next year (probably don’t, though). If he doesn’t produce offense, it’s a short-term commitment at a relatively low risk.
PB: If he’s truly available, the player I’m most interested in is Max Pacioretty. He is an elite scoring winger on a sweetheart contract. He’s having a down season, but like the Blue Jackets, it seems almost entirely tied to his shooting percentage. All of the underlying numbers look the same for Pacioretty – he's a prime bounce back candidate.
The price will be high...there's no question about that. The Jackets could potentially offer a deal with two 2018 first round picks, their own and one from a Johnson trade. That seems like as good a place as any to start.
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