Evaluating Columbus Blue Jackets center Pierre-Luc Dubois was always going to be difficult due to his expectations. Dubois met and shattered them last year during the 2017-18 season and it also adjusted the expectations for him moving forward.
The ceiling keeps moving upward and it is good news for the Blue Jackets. The question becomes whether the first season was a building block, or is it unsustainable?
Over: 55 points
Here's a large reason why Dubois is going to score over 55 points: Artemi Panarin. Any assist rate and shot rate you see associated with Dubois it comes back to Panarin. The Russian forward drives the bus no matter what line he is on, but Dubois works well with him because he is a big body that has some touch. It doesn't get much more important for Panarin to have space. Add in the fact that Dubois can hold his own, and it makes for a wonderful partnership.
You could discuss the possibility that Panarin may be traded and it could take away from that, but you begin to underrate what Dubois does on his own. Even if they play together for a short period of time, Dubois has shown that he can be a strong possession player in his own right. His shooting percentage was above average yet didn't go into unsustainable territory.
Buying Dubois stock is the smart move if you're the betting type.
Under: 55 points
While the possession and shooting numbers are in a place that makes you believe in him, Dubois' zone starts might give you reason for pause. In starting in the offensive zone nearly 70 percent of the time, Dubois was used as an offensive tool and it remains to be seen if he will be used that way again. You don't have to worry about a player defensively if they're constantly in the offensive zone; if you change his role though, that could enable a paradigm shift.
So that makes the Panarin situation all the more important. If he leaves the team, does that make for more difficult situations for Dubois? Does he become more of an offensive centerpiece? Could the above average shooting rate suffer if he becomes a main component to the offense?
Relying on "what ifs" is bad for business and shouldn't inform your decision if nothing tangible is present.
This makes for an easy one.
Prediction: OVER
58 points.
Dubois is going to be relied on – for better and worse. He's going to be used as an offensive weapon and that's good news for him, but possibly even better news for the Blue Jackets, who need a bona fide No. 1 center in the worst way.
