22 of the last 25 Stanley Cup champions had a player on that team whom they drafted in the top four of the NHL Draft. That's 88%. Currently, the Blue Jackets are 30th in the NHL, and have the third-best odds to win the lottery and pick first overall in this summer's draft, per tankathon.com. However, if the season ended today, they'd actually have a better chance (40.7%) to pick fourth than they do of picking in the top three (29.4%), and the odds of them picking in the top three are only fractionally better than the odds of them picking fifth (28.8%). I am not going to break down the lottery odds or remaining schedule anymore because my colleague, Ed Francis (@BlueJacketStats on Twitter), does a fantastic job of that on our site, and you can check it out below.
The chart below shows the players on the 22 Cup-winning teams over the past 25 years that were drafted in the top four.
| Player | Team That Drafted Player | OVR Pick (Draft) | Stanley Cups Won With That Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Avalanche | 1st (2013) | 2022 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | Avalanche | 2nd (2011) | 2022 |
| Cale Makar | Avalanche | 4th (2017) | 2022 |
| Steven Stamkos | Lightning | 1st (2008) | 2021, 2020 |
| Victor Hedman | Lightning | 2nd (2009) | 2021, 2020 |
| Alex Pietrangelo | Blues | 4th (2008) | 2019 |
| Alex Ovechkin | Capitals | 1st (2004) | 2018 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | Capitals | 4th (2006) | 2018 |
| Sidney Crosby | Penguins | 1st (2005) | 2009, 2016, 2017 |
| Evgeni Malkin | Penguins | 2nd (2004) | 2009, 2016, 2017 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury | Penguins | 1st (2003) | 2009, 2016, 2017 |
| Patrick Kane | Blackhawks | 1st (2007) | 2010, 2013, 2015 |
| Jonathan Toews | Blackhawks | 3rd (2006) | 2010, 2013, 2015 |
| Drew Doughty | Kings | 2nd (2008) | 2012, 2014 |
| Tyler Seguin | Bruins | 2nd (2010) | 2011 |
| Jordan Staal | Penguins | 2nd (2006) | 2009 |
| Eric Staal | Hurricanes | 2nd (2003) | 2006 |
| Vincent Lecavalier | Lightning | 1st (1998) | 2004 |
| Scott Niedermayer | Devils | 3rd (1991) | 1995, 2000, 2003 |
| Mike Modano | Stars | 1st (1988) | 1999 |
| Steve Yzerman | Red Wings | 4th (1983) | 1997, 1998, 2002 |
Let's talk about the outliers for a second. The three teams not included on here are the 2001 Avalanche, 2007 Ducks, and 2008 Red Wings.
The '01 Avalanche had Peter Forsberg (6th overall in 1991), Joe Sakic, Patrick Roy, Ray Bourque, and Rob Blake. Those players are all in the Hall of Fame.
The '07 Ducks had Teemu Selanne, the aforementioned Niedermayer, his brother Rob (5th overall in 1993 by FLA), Chris Pronger (2nd overall by Hartford in 1993), Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Jean-Sebastian Giguere. Scott Niedermayer, Selanne, and Pronger are all in the Hall of Fame.
The '08 Red Wings had Hall of Famers Chris Chelios, Dominik Hasek, and Nicklas Lidstrom, along with Pavel Datsyuk, Chris Osgood, Henrik Zetterberg, and Niklas Kronwall.
So, the only way to win a Cup without drafting a player in the top four is to have a bunch of Hall of Famers and/or acquire players who were top-four picks by other teams.
Now, back to the chart. Of the 21 players in that chart, 17 were selected in the top three. In a draft that features potentially franchise-changing players headlined by Connor Bedard and followed by Adam Fantilli and Matvei Michkov, it's as important as it's ever been for the Blue Jackets to pick in the top three. The easiest way to guarantee that is to finish last, but they will need help from other teams to win in order for that to happen.
The next 10-15 years of Blue Jackets hockey could be determined by ping-pong balls on May 8.
