The NHL Draft Lottery is just two weeks away.
And while the results of the May 8th lottery will tell part of the story of the Columbus Blue Jackets offseason, it won't tell the whole thing.
There are numbers to crunch, contracts to extend, potential free agents to sign, and general manager Jarmo Kekalainen will need to navigate a fine line (or two) to give the franchise a formidable path forward. The signing of Johnny Gaudreau last summer put Columbus near the salary cap of $82.5 million. That number is expected to rise for next season — most likely to $83.5 million, which is not a substantial increase in the scheme of things. As of now, the Blue Jackets have $2.4 million available, and the million-dollar increase will be more than offset by their $1.4 million in long-term injured reserve relief currently being used.
In other words, there won't be much wiggle room for Kekalainen and company.
Here is a first look at what might be in store for the Blue Jackets this summer:
Free Agents (Unrestricted)
Moving Vladislav Gavrikov, Joonas Korpisalo, and Gus Nyquist at the trade deadline put the Blue Jackets in a spot where they have very little in the way of unrestricted free agents on the horizon. The biggest UFA is Gavin Bayreuther, which isn't saying much. Forward Lane Pederson and goalies Michael Hutchinson and Jon Gillies are also unrestricted.
Free Agents (Restricted)
Again, not a lot happening here either. The only two names that apply here are forward Mathieu Olivier and defenseman Tim Berni. It's fair to say that Olivier outperformed expectations this season, with a bump in playing time as a result of injuries across the board. The situation was the same for Berni, who made his NHL debut in December and played in the team's final 59 games.
Welcome Back
Even if the Blue Jackets were to not make a single move this offseason, the roster would look vastly different on opening night 2023-24 than it did to conclude the 202-23 season. Zach Werenski and Jake Bean will be back from injuries that sidelined both players for the season all the way back in November, Justin Danforth from an even earlier injury, and Alexandre Texier will return from a year off to resume his NHL career.
Players Entering The Final Year Of A Contract
Jack Roslovic, Eric Robinson, and the aforementioned Danforth will enter the upcoming season in the final year of their contracts before hitting unrestricted free agency. But it's noteworthy to add that this is the final season of Kirill Marchenko's entry-level contract (ELC), meaning that the Blue Jackets sensational rookie will be a restricted free agent at this time next year. Other players who will be an RFA at the end of next season include Nick Blankenburg, Liam Foudy, Emil Bemstrom, plus the returning Bean and Texier.
Potential Contract Extensions
Marchenko could be an important piece of the Blue Jackets future, so getting him locked up before another team even has the opportunity to talk with him may behoove the Blue Jackets. But the name to watch for is undoubtedly Kent Johnson. The 20-year-old scored 16 goals and added 24 assists in his first full season, a total of 79 games. It seems as if Johnson is just scratching the surface of what he's capable of and his payday is coming.
Trade Targets & The Free Agent Market
Rumors have already been swirling that the Blue Jackets might use the first-round pick acquired in their deadline deal with the Kings to acquire help on defense. That pick will be somewhere towards the end of the first round, but in such a deep draft that might carry a bit more weight than in an average year. Is it enough for the Blue Jackets to get a top-line guy to pair with Werenski? Probably not, but a second-pairing blueliner is plausible.
The free agent market, meanwhile, is fairly weak. Top options on the blue line are too expensive for what they are (John Klingberg, possibly the highest quality of available defensemen, is making $7 million this season). A few names to maybe, possibly, potentially consider here that would be within Columbus' budget are Connor Clifton and Troy Stecher. Both are under 30 years old, relatively low cost, and would help on the second or third pair.
Another position the team needs help: center. We can hope that either Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli fill a void at the top, but if not (or if Columbus still wants depth up the middle), they'll need to be budget-smart in bringing in any free agent. Ryan Donato, Tyson Jost, Zach Aston-Reese? It's not much.
Goaltending wise, the options are also limited. Ohio-born Alex Nedeljkovic fits the bill, and Adin Hill, David Rittich, and Jonas Johansson might be other options worth considering for an NHL-caliber netminder, but there is no quick fix to the Columbus goalie woes in free agency.
The Elephant In The Room
A betting man would probably be wise to assume that the Blue Jackets would take back the contract of Elvis Merzlikins. His numbers were atrocious in the first year of a five-year, $27 million dollar deal. His buyout status won't do much to soothe the pain, as the club would still owe him $14.5 million of the remaining $21.6 million on his contract — and the cap hit would take them into the 2030's ($1.8 million per season until 2030-31). Can Columbus find a trading partner that is willing to take Merzlikins? It seems unlikely, but never say never. And assuming not, Columbus will likely have Merzlikins on the opening night roster in 2023-24.
