Big week.
Let's jump right in:
ONE: How To Watch The Draft
The first round of the NHL Draft will air Wednesday, June 28th, at 7:00 p.m. This is one day earlier than last year’s Thursday start (which is different than the previous year’s Friday start, which was different than 2020’s Tuesday’s start…), but the 7:00 p.m. time slot remains the same. You can catch the draft on both ESPN (including ESPN+) and the NHL Network. The remainder of the draft (rounds 2-7) will air exclusively on the NHL Network beginning at 11:00 a.m. Thursday.
TWO: So, Who Joins Columbus Via The Draft?
The Blue Jackets have liked Will Smith for a while. It has felt all along like there would be a real decision to make between him and Leo Carlsson at number three. But what if Anaheim passes on Adam Fantilli for (presumably) Carlsson? Does Columbus like Smith enough to take him over Fantilli? Will Twitter have an absolute meltdown if that happens? Probably, on both accounts.
But then there’s this: what do you believe? Drafts are historically full of tomfoolery. It’s not an accident that the word is out the Ducks may not take Fantilli, and it’s not an accident that everyone knows the Blue Jackets really like Smith. For all we know, Anaheim decided weeks ago that Fantilli would be the pick, and for all we know, the Blue Jackets are still debating between Smith and Carlsson. Are we really to take general managers at their word in the days and weeks leading up to the draft?
On a strictly personal level, Carlsson seems to be the no-brainer over Smith. He's done remarkable things against stronger competition and has the size that Smith doesn't have. The margin between the two of them is roughly as wide, for me, as the margin between Fantilli and Carlsson. But I'm not a scout, and historically, Kekalainen's crew has done a bit better than me in the draft era. (For example: yours truly was dismayed when they opted for Pierre-Luc Dubois over Jesse Puljujarvi.)
That said: expect the Blue Jackets to take Smith.
But also: expect the unexpected.
(No one really knows.)
THREE: Options Up The Middle Via Free Agency
With Kevin Hayes likely off the board (his pending trade to the St. Louis Blues has run into some issues), the Blue Jackets will need to look elsewhere for a center. Could that be in free agency? It's a relatively thin market, but there are some options. I really like Ivan Barbashev as an option, who may be the second-best available center behind Ryan O'Reilly. Also mentioned last week was JT Compher — he'll hit unrestricted free agency next week and with the Colorado Avalanche's acquisition of Ryan Johansen over the weekend, it would seem like Compher returning to the Avs is extremely unlikely.
Compher is 28 and coming off a career-high 52 points this past season — the final year of a four-year, $14 million dollar contract with an average annual value of $3.5 million. If he goes for another four-year contract, he could probably justify an AAV of roughly $4.5 million. He's not a 1C, but he would be a good second-line guy and would perhaps be the most complete natural center on the roster heading into the fall.
What about a trade? If the Blue Jackets want to swing big, Tomas Hertl would immediately give them a number one up the middle. But his contract ($8.14 million through the end of the decade) would be a sticking point. Would San Jose be willing to take guys like Jack Roslovic and Eric Robinson to help make it work financially, as well as a combination of draft picks and prospects? And could/would Columbus offer enough?
Of note: Moving on from Elvis Merzlikins would also help the cap situation. Don't be stunned if he's tending for another team this fall.
FOUR: Gimme Lindholm
The only swing bigger than Hertl via the trade market would be to acquire Elias Lindholm. He's not only a proven commodity, but he's a proven commodity when it comes to playing with Johnny Gaudreau. Here's Frank Seravalli from a few days ago:
#Flames update: CGY recently made a big pitch, rolled out the red carpet ($) to try to re-sign C Elias Lindholm.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) June 22, 2023
CGY is waiting on a response from Lindholm and haven't been given definitive answer yet. But general league speculation is he's leaning toward not re-signing w/ CGY.
He's 28 and would instantly be the number one center on the team. The question here is how would the Blue Jackets acquire Lindholm without giving up the third overall pick this year? Well, what about a package that looks like this: Next year's first rounder, as well as a top young player (Cole Sillinger?) and a solid prospect, probably on the defensive side of things if the Flames enter a rebuild retool of their own (Corson Cuelemans?). To quote the Twitter machine: who says no?
Acquiring Lindholm would immediately put this team in the playoff conversation. With Kekalainen seemingly in all-or-nothing mode and his job potentially on the line over the next one-to-two seasons, this could be just the splash he needs to ensure himself many more years in Columbus.
