The Columbus Blue Jackets have been quiet during free agency, which makes sense given their suddenly-crowded depth chart. That, coupled with one of the strongest pipelines in the NHL, and the Blue Jackets are content to bide their time and let their young players develop.
While the Blue Jackets are choosing the organic growth route, other teams, notably the Pittsburgh Penguins, are not sitting idly. They fired their GM, then doubled down on what is left of their legacy roster while their three Hall-Of-Fame players are still playing. Yep, the Penguins are going for broke by adding Erik Karlsson, and it's probably the right call.
It got me thinking... in this era where team success is defined by 'windows', where are the Blue Jackets? And perhaps more to the point, where are the other teams in their division?
Columbus Blue Jackets
Now: A team on the rise, with a stacked cupboard that holds the most important positional building blocks (Adam Fantilli, center, and David Jiricek, defenseman). The question isn't will they take a step this year - it's by how many points.
Three Years Out: This is the million-dollar question. Rebuilds are notoriously fickle, and it's hard to say if - much less when - they come together. But three years was picked as a measuring stick by yours truly with some intent. I think in three years this will be a team competing in a real way.
Carolina Hurricanes
Now: The Hurricanes are in win-now mode, and they're not far off. They've been to the playoffs the past five seasons, advancing at least one round in four of those years, and have twice (including last season) reached the Eastern Conference Finals. They're a playoff team all day.
Three Years Out: It brings me no pleasure to speculate that the Hurricanes are well-positioned for the foreseeable future. They have a nice blend of young and old talent, and with no truly regrettable contracts on the books, they're in good shape heading forward.
New York Rangers
Now: Two seasons ago, the Rangers lost in the Eastern Conference Finals, then took a step backward this year by falling in the first round to the New Jersey Devils. That cost head coach Gerard Gallant his job. Still, the team is expected to be in the mix atop the Metropolitan Division, as their depth chart remains competitive throughout the lineup.
Three Years Out: The Rangers should remain competitive for the foreseeable future, given their surplus of young talent. That should keep the window open longer. It's after three years out where this window could shut.
New Jersey Devils
Now: The Devils are the envy of the Metropolitan Division in a lot of manners. They have their young studs locked up on team-friendly contracts. They have top prospects that haven't yet been elevated to the NHL. And they already got a taste of playoff success a year ago. Like Carolina, this feels like a team ready to win now and in the future.
Three Years Out: In three years, the Devils are probably among Stanley Cup favorites.
New York Islanders
Now: Ah, now it gets tricky. Do you, dear reader, feel strongly in one direction about the New York Islanders? I sure don't. You could tell me that they'll contend at the top of the Metro or finish with a lottery pick and I would be equally likely to nod along. Ultimately, they're probably where they have been for the past four seasons: somewhere between fourth and sixth in the division, and a likely Wild Card team. But I wouldn't put money on it.
Three Years Out: The Islanders' identity now is easy to peg. A veteran team that is hell to play against, and they play playoff hockey for 82 regular-season games. That catches up, eventually. Three years? That sounds about right.
Washington Capitals
Now: Like the Islanders, the Capitals are one of those teams that is probably too good to bottom out given their current personnel, but it also wouldn't shock me if the wheels fall off in the near future - like this season. Last season broke an eight-year streak of playoff berths. Will a new coach precipitate the changes required to bounce back? Or just usher in a new normal of mediocrity?
Three Years Out: In Alexander Ovechkin's age-40 season, I feel fairly confident that this already-old team will be one of the worst teams in the NHL.
Philadelphia Flyers
Now: The Flyers are in year one of new management, and they seem to (correctly) understand their place in the NHL lifecycle, unlike their previous regime(s). This team will almost certainly be a lottery team, and that's by design.
Three Years Out: The Flyers have a top-10 prospect pipeline and should continue to see that improve. Three years could be when they start to turn the corner, as I expect the Blue Jackets to this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Now: The Penguins are in go-for-it mode, as they should be. With Sidney Crosby, who turns 36 today, still playing fantastic hockey, there is no reason to not be trying to maximize their window. The Penguins know their credit card bill will come due one day, but that day is not today.
Three Years Out: In three years, it's possible - probable, even - that the Penguins are on their steep and sudden descent into the basement of the NHL. But Blue Jackets fans should be careful to point and laugh when it happens - the Penguins are the model franchise at truly being terrible and reaping the benefits. But they will soon be back. And in greater numbers.
Parting Thoughts
The Metropolitan Division is in a state of flux. The old-guard, legacy teams like the Penguins and Capitals have already been passed by the Devils, Hurricanes, and Rangers. The Flyers are squarely in a rebuild and have no intention of competing this year. That leaves the Islanders and Blue Jackets. For the Blue Jackets to make the playoffs this year, their task is not necessarily to pass the three consensus top teams but instead to beat out the Islanders, Penguins, and Capitals.
