One of the top stories from the prospects tournament in Traverse City was the play of the Blue Jackets' dynamic first line, a line anchored by Pierre-Luc Dubois.
And while the other players on that line, Vitaly Abramov and Calvin Thurkauf, did yeoman's work to impress throughout the tournament, the task of making the Blue Jackets' opening night roster is a bit different for Dubois, the No. 3 overall pick in 2016.
That isn't to say that Abramov and Thurkauf can't or won't make the roster, but more so that Dubois is expected to do just that.
It's not exactly preferential treatment but rather that the Blue Jackets lost centermen William Karlsson and Sam Gagner during the offseason, and Brandon Dubinsky is currently recovering from offseason surgery on his right wrist. That means, in theory, Columbus could enter the season with just two of last season's centers on its roster (Alexander Wennberg and Lukas Sedlak), further opening the door for Dubois' full-time arrival to the NHL.
To make the team is one thing; to have an impact at the NHL is an entirely different animal. And for a team looking to qualify for the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history, the potential for Dubois to seal a hole in the Blue Jackets' lineup is key to their success.
But here's a lukewarm take: producing in the NHL is hard, especially for 19-year-olds. What is a realistic expectation for Dubois and his production?
Assuming he stays healthy and plays most of the season and plays primarily as the center on the third line, it would be a stretch to think he'll exceed 35 points.
William Karlsson, last season's tenant at the position, finished with a career-high 25 points in 81 games. Can Blue Jackets fans expect Dubois to possess a stronger offensive game than Karlsson? Probably, but perhaps more importantly is that Dubois may likely be playing with better offensive pieces than Karlsson (Matt Calvert and Josh Anderson were his typical line mates).
Even so, 35 points is a tall task. Consider that over the past seven NHL seasons, only ten 19-year-old rookies averaged over 0.43 points/game (35 points over 82 games). This list features many of the top players in the NHL today, with Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews heading the list. Dubois couldn't make the Blue Jackets a year ago, but is expected to keep pace with Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel?
Heck, 35 points would have been good for 10th on the club in scoring a year ago, a year in which the Blue Jackets set virtually every franchise record. It would have put him ahead of Boone Jenner (33) and Josh Anderson (29).
This isn't to disparage Dubois. In fact, in a lot of ways, it's a testament to his skill and maturity that Blue Jackets brass has a spot for him on a team that had 108 points a season ago. And if he's in a third line, bottom-six capacity, point production won't even be his primary concern. If he can be a solid, even dull NHL player as he acclimates to the league, that should be enough to stabilize a position currently lacking depth.
Just don't expect him to torch the NHL in 2017.
Official prediction: 78 GP | 11 G, 17 A, 28 PTS.
