It's time.
The Blue Jackets have chosen that phrase as their motto for this year's Stanley Cup playoffs, and it's also an indicator of another 1st Ohio Battery roundtable.
Our staff is here in full to break down Columbus' chances against the Tampa Bay Lightning's juggernaut superteam, and also, we'll talk about players we've got eyes on as the series begins Wednesday at Amalie Arena.
Without further ado, let's jump in – there's plenty to discuss.
The Stanley Cup playoffs are here and the Blue Jackets get the honor of facing the Presidents Trophy winners. Scale of 1-to-5 (5 being supremely confident), how do you feel about their chances of an upset?
CP: I’ve been having this recurring dream where the Blue Jackets get curb-stomped 6-1 in Game 1, which helps prepare me for the likely outcome of another first-round exit. But after some digging and watching hype videos on YouTube, I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m at a 2.5/3.0 on that scale. If the Jackets are going to pull something out, it’ll be at the hands of Sergei Bobrovsky, and I’m feeling weirdly confident of his pull in this series. Yes, he’s a very average goaltender in the playoffs, but in both of his past two playoff appearances, he’d been pretty mediocre heading in. Right now, he’s as good as he’s ever been and seems to be playing with a care-free mindset (maybe because beaches are on the horizon for him?). Regardless, I think he’s going to ball out this series.
JN: I’m at a 2.0. There are several factors influencing my decision to not put that number higher. Sergei Bobrovsky has been poor in the playoffs. There’s not much playoff experience on the Blue Jackets. Tampa Bay is deeper in every single facet of its roster. However, the reason I’m not at a "1" is solely based on the fact that it’s the playoffs, and anything can happen. Bobrovsky could turn a corner and continue his recent hot streak. The line of Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson could light the Tampa Bay defense up, and Oliver Bjorkstrand could continue to fire the biscuit in the basket. These things *could* happen. They’re not impossible, but not incredibly likely.
DD: Count me at a solid 1.0. Look, I hope I’m wrong, I really do, but what can possibly convince you that this team could upset Tampa? In net, Bobrovsky is one of the worst playoff goalies in recent memory. That’s not hyperbole, it’s not hating on a guy, it’s NHL.com’s published statistics. High-scoring forwards Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson, and Matt Duchene have combined to win exactly zero playoff series in their combined careers. And in the other corner you have the Tampa Bay Lightning, one of the best teams maybe ever, and probably in the salary cap era. They have better goaltending, a stronger defense corps, a deeper offensive lineup, and maybe the best coach in hockey. Could the Blue Jackets pull the upset? Sure. But I’ll be shocked if it happens.
SB: I am at 1.0. I just can’t find a way that it is going to happen. Until something different happens, I am going to always believe that they are the same old Blue Jackets. Does that thought process suck? Yes. Is it necessarily wrong? I don’t think so. They’re going to need their offense at its best. They’re going to need their defense and goaltending to be otherworldly. It just feels like too much of an uphill climb.
KM: Integers are for chumps, put me down for a 3.5. Listen, it’s easy to say that it’s not going to happen, and Tampa may be the best hockey team of the cap era. The Blue Jackets had some stretches of uninspiring to downright frustrating games this season – particularly right after the trade deadline – and they’ve gotten smoked by Tampa this year. That said, Columbus has done a better job than just about anyone at generating scoring chances against Tampa – and limiting Tampa’s own chances – this year. The difference in those three games has been goaltending – unsustainably good for Tampa (.981 save% and unsustainably bad for Columbus (.770 save%). If Bobrovsky can play like he has down the stretch in front of an improved Blue Jackets roster, the Jackets can flip the script.
RM: I feel like a 3.0 ranking is the perfect balance between hopelessly optimistic and unfortunately realistic. Look, I love this edition of the Blue Jackets. They’re fast. They’re loaded with skill. And they’ve had this look in their eyes of late that’s been missing all year long – they seemed to be coming together as this playoff race hit a fever pitch, which I’ll admit might mean a lot more if they weren’t playing the Lightning. The reality is that, no matter how well they’ve been playing, the Blue Jackets have to check off a 25-item list of things to do perfectly in order to have a chance.
Playoff series are known for producing unsung or unpredictable heroes. Who might that be for the Blue Jackets? Give us one bold pick.
CP: Bobrovsky would definitely be an unpredictable hero based on past playoff performances, but since he’s a two-time Vezina winner, he probably shouldn’t count. Neither should this next choice, but I’m going to go with Pierre-Luc Dubois. The reason it might be unpredictable is because even though he had a 60-point season, he had just seven points in his final 19 games, and an 11-game stretch where he went pointless. The second-year center scored two goals last playoffs, and this is a time where big boys like him can thrive. I think Matt Duchene’s arrival intimidated him a bit, but he seems to have gotten his game back together as of late, and I think he could be in the top-two point getters for the Jackets this series.
JN: I’m going to go with the impressive rookie, Alexandre Texier. He has looked excellent in his brief two-game stint in the NHL, and his play has bounced a mainstay in Alexander Wennberg from the Blue Jackets lineup. He’s dynamic with the puck, a fast skater, and has a great release on his wrist shot. Texier also gets to play on a line with Oliver Bjorkstrand, who is on fire. The opportunities will be there for the Frenchman.
DD: I don’t know how “bold” this is, but give me Josh Anderson. Anderson is built for the playoffs, perfectly blending size and skill. Columbus will (or at least, should) avoid a back-and-forth, up and down the ice game, in favor of a more “grinding”, intense brand of hockey. Who better than Anderson to create havoc and be a thorn in the side of the Lightning? Tampa can put the puck in the net, but Anderson can be a physical presence on every shift and could help to slow their attack. The offense is there, too, evidenced by his 27 goals this season.
SB: Give me two Dean Kukan goals. He is going to get a tiny opportunity and if he takes advantage, he could present a problem for the Lightning. A third-pairing player that can skate is always compelling. Against a Lightning team that may try to line match, they may be in for a surprise with Kukan.
KM: The obvious answer here is Oliver Bjorkstrand, who has been on fire and showed off some great playmaking skills alongside Alexandre Texier to boot. But for the sake of being different, I’ll go with the third guy on that line, Nick Foligno, who should play with a chip on his shoulder and could get a few greasy goals off of rebounds in this series.
RM: We’ve seen a bunch of guys score important playoff goals for the Blue Jackets (or, what were seen at the time as important despite the eventual outcomes): Matt Calvert, Freddy Modin, Jack Johnson, Brandon Dubinsky. In that vein, I’ll take Riley Nash. The guy’s had a down year and struggled to find solid footing in Columbus, but there’s no better time to forget all of that than in the playoffs (where he’s got experience). This spring just feels ripe for a big-time goal from The Other R. Nash.
Can the Blue Jackets get back in the series if they don’t win one of the first two games?
CP: Because the first two games are nearly-guaranteed wins for Tampa Bay by the public, it’s not like it would be too bad of a discouragement to be down 2-0 heading home for Columbus. Win two games on home ice, and the pressure is on the Lightning to get the series over with, and quick. Their window has been open for a Stanley Cup for about 4-5 years now, and if they can’t deliver a championship this year, let’s just say their arena might be burnt down overnight by fans.
JN: I don’t think that the Blue Jackets coaching staff would be able to right the ship if the Blue Jackets can’t steal one in Tampa. There’s only so much you can change tactically over the course of a playoff series, and if the Lightning go up 2-0, Columbus will be in serious trouble. Staring down a 2-0 deficit against a team with Tampa Bay’s caliber on offense, defense, and in the net is asking for a sweep.
DD: An old playoff hockey adage is you’re never truly in trouble until you lose a game at home. In other words, push a series to Game 7, where anything can happen. But let’s be honest, Columbus will be in trouble if they’re down 2-0. The only way I can foresee an upset is if the Blue Jackets are able to plant a seed of doubt in central Florida. Tampa has immense pressure to win this year, having never gotten over the hump (with this regime) and time working against them. If Columbus can split on the road, you’ve got to be thrilled. If not, I’m afraid the psychological pressures we’ve seen in the past, primarily with a certain UFA goalie, will be too much to overcome.
SB: Why not? They are a good team, for what it is worth. All of the doom and gloom has seemingly put the Blue Jackets in a spot as if they aren’t competent – which couldn’t be further from the truth. This team should win a couple of games. Why can’t it be when they are down a game or two? They’ll have a raucous Nationwide Arena behind them, and anything can happen at that point.
KM: Ask the Washington Capitals if a 2-0 hole is impossible to climb out of (it’s not). I do think it’d require some kind of tactical shift, though, and I’m not sure I trust John Tortorella to win that battle against Jon Cooper.
RM: I understand the notion of not being in trouble until you lose at home, but the Blue Jackets have been pretty good at that in the playoffs. They’re in trouble if they lose Game 1. Their best chance in this series is to rock the boat right away and steal a game at Amalie Arena, and ensure that they go back to Columbus in a 1-1 tie. After that, they have to find a way to build on playoff momentum and win a game or two at home – and if such a scenario doesn’t materialize and they’re staring at a 2-0 hole on Saturday morning, this is going to be a short series.
Give Blue Jackets fans one specific reason why you think they can pull off the upset of all upsets. And, go!
CP: My answer, until the final buzzer sounds, will be that Bobrovsky is the key to winning the series. He’s been the best goaltender in the NHL the past month, arguably playing better than he’s ever played. He’s the backbone of the Blue Jackets, and if he’s riding, Tampa has reason to be nervous. Seriously.
Note: Goaltending is a theme here...
JN: If, and it’s a big if, Bobrovsky can maintain his current form going into this series, the Blue Jackets can absolutely win against Tampa. Bobrovsky has turned in ridiculous performances recently, winning Columbus many games almost single-handedly. He has the ability to change this series.
DD: During warm-ups of Game 1, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point are doing the standard 3-on-2 drill against Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, when suddenly the ice craters in their zone only and all six players fall into a deep abyss, never to be seen again.
Okay, sorry. Bobrovsky will have to play at the same level, or better, than he’s played in his past 13 games, in which he’s gone 10-3-0 with four shutouts and a .946 save%. That gives the Blue Jackets a chance.
SB: I think the one tangible part of this that we seem to keep overlooking is the fact that the pressure may be on the Blue Jackets – but it's really on the Lightning. They are historically good. Whenever that pressure is on you, that can crush how you play. If the series gets away from them, the Blue Jackets are playing with house money.
KM: The underlying numbers for the Jackets against Tampa this year are encouraging. The Jackets carried play for long stretches before adding Duchene, Dzingel and Texier to the lineup, so it stands to reason that they can do it again. With a few lucky bounces and some vintage Bobrovsky performances, the Blue Jackets can absolutely steal this series.
RM: If the Blue Jackets get offensive production from their two top lines, then you could ignite some additional optimism from me. They need the No. 1 line (Dubois, Panarin, Atkinson) to put pucks in the net, and in addition, their No. 2 line (Duchene, Anderson, Dzingel) has to be dangerous. In the first two games, this will require some creative deployment on the part of John Tortorella as he won’t have the last line change. The offensive players need to be in offensive situations as often as possible.
