The free agency period for the Columbus Blue Jackets got a lot of attention not for who was signed, but for who moved on.
Now that the dust has settled, it's becoming more apparent that GM Jarmo Kekalainen didn't overreact in the moment, and actually made a rather savvy deal to when getting forward Gustav Nyquist to join the club.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic did a statistical deep dive into the unrestricted free agents who signed the dotted line and how likely they are to work out.
According to Luszczyszyn's findings, most unrestricted free agents who singed in 2019 will not reach the expected value of their contracts.
Of the 37 deals signed with a cap hit north of $1.5 milion, only 10 are likely to provide positive value and the average probability is 41 percent.
The good news for Blue Jackets fans is, according to Luszczyszyn, Nyquist is one of the 10 aforementioned players expected to have a positive value, with the odds of him outperforming his contract coming in at 51.1%. Considering the dollars and years that were handed out by NHL GMs this July 1, Kekalainen's four-year investment in Nyquist was more on the conservative side – with a higher potential for success.
Nyquist, who signed a four-year deal with Columbus for $22 million, will be turning 30 on the first day of September. He's coming off career highs in points (60) and assists (38) during the 2018-19 season in 81 games, a season split between the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks. Nyquist was a strong performer for San Jose during its 2019 playoff run, contributing 11 points in 20 games.
