Welcome back, friends, to another roundtable discussion with our 1st Ohio Battery team. Since we last met, our team has grown! Dan Dukart joins us as a staff writer and you'll see his name on the site with regularity.
This is bound to be one of the busiest and most exciting weeks in our generation of NHL hockey, so let's not waste any time and get right into the discussion:
What are your thoughts on the reported/rumored trade between the Blue Jackets and Vegas Golden Knights, sending Columbus’ 2017 first-round pick the other way?
Dan Dukart: I'm in "wait and see" mode. I think it depends on a) if Columbus acquires the 34th overall pick as the return, b) if Clarkson’s contract is moved, c) Vegas stays clear of Anderson (which has been widely accepted as truth) and d) any additional prospect/player sent to Vegas is deemed non-essential, I’m okay with it. In such a wide open draft, there’s a weirdly plausible chance that Columbus gets ‘their guy’ at 34 just as they would have at 24. GM Jarmo Kekalainen clearly isn’t afraid of making a big trade. If he can hit those four criteria, I think it makes sense to make a move like this.
Jeff Svoboda: If David Clarkson’s contract is involved, then I think it’s a good deal. If not, consider me confused. The Blue Jackets would love to find someone to take that contract out from their cap, especially with the Alexander Wennberg and Josh Anderson deals on the horizon and the search for a sniper afoot. Here’s where I’m on the fence; I’m just not sure how good Anderson is gonna be, and he’s clearly a key piece of this whole situation. He wasn’t really thought to be a superstar prospect before his breakout 2016-17, but is he a future 30-goal scorer or a guy who had a really good rookie year? If he’s the former, giving up a first-round pick and a prospect makes sense because you’d always rather have known quantities. But if he’s a guy who tops out around 15 to 20 goals per year, it only makes sense to make this kind of deal if Clarkson’s contract is involved.
Sam Blazer: It’s a move that leaves you apathetic. Understanding the move from a business perspective and from a fan perspective are two different thought patterns. The Blue Jackets are never going to be the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks -- that is a fact when it comes to spending money. Instead of futzing around with the cap, getting rid of Clarkson now opens up room for this offseason. The Blue Jackets have a strong belief that they can draft the best from any position; it doesn’t matter if a first-round pick is burnt. It may be a foolish long term strategy but if it helps the team in the short term, not many will complain if it helps them land a “big catch.” It makes sense that people are angry; this isn’t an open and shut discussion, it takes a lot more nuance than that. If they’re able to rid themselves of a truly bad contract, they like what they can do here.
Rob Mixer: I know many folks are perplexed by the rumored deal, but it's not like the Blue Jackets are the only team in this situation. We're going to see several teams -- aiming to protect more significant assets than what Columbus is trying to protect -- paying exorbitant prices to keep their players safe. Can you imagine what it'll cost the Anaheim Ducks (who have a cadre of talented young defensemen), or the Nashville Predators (who want to keep James Neal), or a team like Minnesota that could lose Matt Dumba? At least to me, it appears that the Blue Jackets are paying market value for an expansion side deal, and the cost ticks up just a bit if they're offloading Clarkson's contract. I think when all is said and done and we see all of the side deals made for player protection, the Blue Jackets will make out alright.
Your reaction to the Blue Jackets protecting 23-year-old defenseman Ryan Murray, who has been the subject of trade rumors and an uncertain future with Columbus?
Jeff: Absolutely this is the right move. Jack Johnson’s very solid 2016-17 season aside, Murray is a guy with more potential and should still be a part of this team’s future. He remains an interesting trade chip at the very least and could still be a top-four defenseman in this league. I’ve said this with Sonny Milano: where this league is becoming so good and so young and so fast that we now tend to look at guys as busts if they’re not superstars by the time they can legally drink a beer (in America, of course). Murray’s development has been hurt by injuries and his past season wasn’t stellar, but it’s far too early to potentially give him up for nothing. I think he’s a very big part of the 2017-18 Jackets.
Rob: Without question. And listen, this couldn't have been much of a shock to Jack Johnson, who is a pretty smart guy and knows the drill here. He's 30 years old, his contract is winding down and the Blue Jackets want to keep as many pieces of their young core group of players together as possible. Murray has had an up-and-down start to his pro career, but good grief, he's only 23 years old and has plenty of hockey ahead of him. They'll give him every opportunity and his protected status seems to back that up.
Sam: Tossing Murray to the side when he still has a load of potential and trade value is a silly proposition. As recently as last year, Team North America put him on their defense with Seth Jones and the two did a solid job for being on an exhibition team. He isn’t going to be a difference-maker, but he can be a player that fills a role on your team. He can skate, he passes well and moves the puck better than many in the NHL and he isn’t a player that makes knucklehead plays. There is real value in the league for that. I don’t believe his window with the team is closed by any means, but his expectations may need to be slightly adjusted. His current value may be the lowest it has ever been, making any possible trade surrounding him all the more difficult.
Dan: It was the right move. Murray is younger, cheaper, and has more upside than Johnson. Though he may be on the verge of being passed on the depth chart, he’s still a young, serviceable defenseman that unquestionably possesses better than average NHL caliber talent. Columbus management (correctly) identified that having Murray on the third pairing is a luxury in today's NHL, and they made the right call to protect him. Also worth noting: Vegas may pass on Johnson, and if they do, Columbus is returned a veteran, second-pairing defenseman with a reasonable, expiring contract. If Vegas does take him, Columbus is gifted $4M in cap room. Smart chess maneuver by Blue Jackets management on this one.
Expectations for the Vegas Golden Knights and their roster construction, based on what we know to this point?
Rob: Well, what we know (essentially the unprotected lists) is that George McPhee and the Golden Knights will have a mixed bag of options, depending on which team you're referring to. They'll get a good player from the Blue Jackets. They may have a harder time with teams like Vancouver and Arizona, and it sounds like they'll have a solid No. 1 goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury from Pittsburgh. I like their coaching staff led by Gerard Gallant but I don't know if they'll have enough skill to compete right away; the good news for Vegas is they'll have stockpiled a ton of picks through the expansion/side deal process that their building process can accelerate beyond some other teams that are in a build or rebuild process. In that division, you never know, but I think the Golden Knights will find goals hard to come by in Year 1.
Dan: Well, it’s impossible to know what’s actually available based on the protected lists alone, since there are likely to be several (many?) side deals that aren’t publicly known. That said, it sure does appear that Vegas will have some pieces that could help them in the long run. In net, they could conceivably go with Marc-Andre Fleury and Petr Mrazek, and you could do way worse than that between the pipes. Defensively, they’ll be able to take a lot of second-pairing defensemen (of the ilk of Jack Johnson), and they’ll be serviceable but not great. Offensively, I’ll just say it: This team is going to have a really hard time scoring goals. All that said, I get the sense that Vegas will load up on draft picks and tradeable pieces with the expectation that this team will struggle for a year or two, but then turn it around. It has the potential to be a “how to guide” in team-building, something many other teams (Colorado, Vancouver, etc.) should be using as a template.
Making mock Vegas teams based off today's protected lists is a complete waste of time and I'm totally gonna do it anyway.
— Steve Dangle Glynn (@Steve_Dangle) June 18, 2017
Jeff: All right, I’ll be honest, I’m not gonna sit here and make Vegas Golden Knights mock rosters or anything along those lines. But it does seem like Vegas is in a pretty good spot right now. There are some good pieces available to construct a roster, especially when it comes to defensemen, and the fact teams like Columbus are willing to make moves to send pieces to Sin City in order to protect assets has put the Knights in a good position to leverage those assets. This is a team that paid a lot of money ($500 million) to have an expansion opportunity, and I don’t think the NHL intends to have a new team in a place like Vegas that is going to struggle mightily like the Jackets did at the start. My expectation is this team will be competitive sooner rather than later.
Sam: I believe they will stockpile picks and use this moment as leverage against all of the teams in the league. It’ll draw ire from some fans, but it is the entirely right move. They are going to end up with a lot of first-round picks by the time this is over with and I believe the number of side deals they pull off is going to be outrageously high. They’ll get a lot of younger players as part of it and will likely select younger players that have some potential to them, which will help them sell off at the next two trade deadlines. If they can’t get that, they get a veteran with something to prove (another deadline piece). The first two years should be about accumulating young talent and ensuring the Golden Knights a contender for years ahead, not just the short term.
Make your pick: the Vegas Golden Knights will select ___ from the Blue Jackets on Wednesday night.
Sam: With the expectation that the Blue Jackets made a deal with the Golden Knights, I believe they will select either Karlsson or Calvert. It’s the only way it makes any sense for a deal like this. They are low-impact players that are easily replaceable, and the only real problem is they’re both fan favorites. Thankfully, that won’t deter the front office from making the right decision.
A real outside-the-box move would be forcing Vegas to select Johnson for a maximum salary dump. That would be $10 million off of the books right off the bat. While it's unlikely due to team ramifications, it could help accelerate Columbus' offseason plan.
Jeff: I think there’s only two potential options at this point, and they are William Karlsson and Matt Calvert. There’s far too much smoke for there not to be a fire as far as a trade on the table between the Blue Jackets and Golden Knights (what a colorful duo, by the way). With that in mind, it makes sense Vegas would take a bottom-six forward like the two guys I mentioned. When push come to shove, I think it will be Karlsson. This is partly because everyone knows I love Calvert, but Karlsson is also younger, a center, and has a higher ceiling. I think Wild Bill is headed to the Wild West.
Rob: I've felt all along that William Karlsson is the best fit for the Golden Knights. One, centers are valuable and essential pieces to a team - and if you can get one for free (plus whatever they get from Columbus in a potential side deal), you'll take that every day. Second, his age (24) and contract status ($1M for next season before becoming RFA in 2018) make sense for a team that's going to be carrying a decent payroll thanks to the expansion draft. And finally, the math seems to favor Karlsson; the Golden Knights are picking 30 players in the expansion draft, and they have room for 20 skaters. Those that stay with Vegas are likely a) young and affordable and b) can play an important role, and for me, Karlsson fits into both categories. It's a loss for the Blue Jackets, who relied on Karlsson last season to anchor their penalty kill and add depth in their top-nine, but it would also represent an opportunity for Lukas Sedlak to play a more prominent role.
Dan: Man, it sure feels like it’ll be William Karlsson or Matt Calvert. If I’m Jarmo, aside from Anderson, I worry about them taking Korpisalo and try to ensure it doesn’t happen. But just throwing it out there...Jack Johnson probably doesn’t get enough play. If it were me, I’d take Johnson with the understanding that I can flip him at the trade deadline to any of several contenders for a draft pick or two. That said, I’m not George McPhee, so I don’t know the details of the potentially-agreed-upon-handshake-agreement-stipulations. The best-case scenario is Matt Calvert; "Matty Ice" is a fan favorite, undoubtedly, but he’s also a fourth line winger that is making $2.2M this season. If you replace that description with Calvert’s name, any fan should be content with Vegas poaching that player. The most likely pick is Karlsson, who is younger, has more upside, and is a center. It's hard to over-think that one, but maybe part of the handshake deal specifies that Vegas takes Calvert? We'll see.
