You could say Sam Gagner was a surprise for the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2016-17, yet you could say there was very little about the former first-round pick's performance that came out of the blue.
One year after Gagner had eight goals and eight assists in 53 games with Philadelphia, he was available for picking off the scrap heap. He signed a $650,000 deal with Columbus, putting his name on a contract that to many served as his last chance to show he was an bona fide NHL player.
But that was a bit too easy of a narrative. Gagner had actually proved to be a consistent player during his NHL career, with the season in Philly just an off year. During his seven years with Edmonton from 2007-14, Gagner had averaged 17.9 goals and 50.2 points per 82 games, so perhaps it was no surprise he finished with 18 goals and 50 points in his first season in Columbus.
Now, that one-year deal is over, with Gagner set to hit the open market. Will he return to Columbus?
The Case For
Well, we just made it. You sign Sam Gagner, you're likely to get around 18 goals and 50 points if he can stay healthy. Great? Not quite, but if it's the kind of production you can set your watch to, you find a spot on a second, third, or even fourth line for Gagner, especially considering he can play both center and wing and was also a key part of the team's power play when it was humming early in the season.
If Columbus loses a forward in the NHL expansion draft, there might be an even bigger door than expected for Gagner to return. It seems as though the team would like to have him back and he'd like to return.
The Case Against
There are two things working against the likelihood of Gagner's return.
First, that $650,000 contract isn't going to be repeated. Gagner, who made close to $5 million under his previous contract, seemingly won't get that again on the open market but is due a hefty raise that the market will dictate.
There's also the question whether there's a fit on the roster for the soon-to-be 28-year-old. Ten forwards who were a major part of last year's team are under contract for next year, and Josh Anderson and Alexander Wennberg are restricted free agents due new deals. That already puts Columbus at 12 forwards; such youngsters as Pierre-Lub Dubois could push, but a forward could go in the expansion draft as well. And you never know what the trade market will bring.
The Verdict: Not Likely
Can we hedge on this one? There's too many variables to be sorted out before free agency begins, and the picture will be more clear after the expansion draft and regular ole draft.
That being said, it seems unlikely on the surface that Gagner will return. The Jackets seem to be tight on cap space, especially with the Anderson and Wennberg deals due. The market could seems very likely to price Gagner out of their budget, especially depending on where some of the bigger names land.
Then again, it might not. If the right combination of things comes together that the Jackets either gain cap space (Jack Johnson to Vegas?) or lose a forward (Matt Calvert or William Karlsson to the Sin City?) the two sides might be able to make something work.
But as of right now, the smart money seems to be on Gagner making big money and ending up somewhere outside of Columbus.
