I've had Pittsburgh on top. I've had New Jersey on top. And now, after another strong week, it's time for another change: The Columbus Blue Jackets deserve to be at the top of the Metro Division power rankings.
I'll detail why in a second here, but one thing worth pointing out is just how tight the Metro is right now. A year after the division was the strongest in the NHL by far, two of its power teams – defending Stanley Cup champs Pittsburgh and defending Presidents' Trophy winner Washington – have gotten off to slower starts. While New Jersey has been a surprise and Columbus has been consistently good, the rest of the league is hovering around the .500 mark or below.
Seeing exactly how this will shake out will be interesting to watch. Can New Jersey and Columbus keep it going? Will Pittsburgh and Washington right their ships? And is there another team there that will jump up and contend?
1. Columbus Blue Jackets (9-4-1, 19 points, Last week: 3): Not only did the Jackets climb into the top spot in the standings with Saturday night's point in Tampa, the simple truth is the numbers show the team is playing as strong a hockey as anyone in the league.
Good morning,
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) November 5, 2017
Here are some team charts for your Sunday morning enjoyment.https://t.co/iQo3DIBCtD pic.twitter.com/SYhCuUWhJY
The Jackets have firmly controlled shot attempt generation throughout the season, resulting in one of the best expected goal rates in the NHL. Simply put, the advanced numbers like Columbus. So do the traditional ones, as well, with the team's plus-10 goal differential at the top of the division. The Jackets are coming off a strong week that included wins over Boston and Florida and that road point at Tampa, perhaps the Eastern Conference's strongest team to this point in the season. And they're doing it all without the big guns really firing; one has to think there's more to come in the production department from such players as Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson, Alex Wennberg and Nick Foligno. The Jackets, of course, aren't perfect, but they're the best team in the division so far.
2. New Jersey Devils (9-3-0, 18 points, LW: 1): Sorry, New Jersey. The Devils didn't really do anything to lose the top spot as much as Columbus claimed it, with New Jersey flying out west to beat Vancouver before falling to Edmonton. The underlying numbers show the Devils as a team that is below 50 percent in xGF% at 5-on-5, and while those numbers don't mean everything it does point to the fact the Devils might just be playing a tad bit over their heads to this point. Taylor Hall has essentially been otherworldly to this point with 17 points in 13 games, and first overall pick Nico Hischier has 10 points in 13 games. But to be honest, I don't see Brian Gibbons continuing a 40-goal pace, nor does rookie Will Butcher figure to have an assist per game like he has to this point. But there's a lot to like, with Hischier and Butcher adding a boost of good young talent to this organization..
3. Pittsburgh Penguins (8-6-2, 18 points, LW: 2): Figuring out the Penguins to this point has been nearly impossible. Some numbers show the team as tremendously unlucky to this point, but you have to be concerned about a team that has the division's worst goal differential at minus-16, thanks largely to the three blowouts the team has suffered this year (combined margin of 24-3 in losses to Chicago, Tampa Bay and Winnipeg). The Pens have also lost four of five, though that took place on the Western Canada road swing that is so tough for most teams. I can't be too worried about this team yet, though, with the trio of Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby combining for 15 goals and 29 helpers in the first 16 games. Tristan Jarry appears to be set as the team's backup goaltender, and how he plays will likely be key considering the need to keep Matt Murray fresh.
4. New York Islanders (7-5-1, 15 points, LW: 6): I'll move up the Isles again and they deserve it, as the team is playing much better hockey than I saw coming this year. Much of that is thanks to the play of forwards Josh Bailey (3-15-18) and Anders Lee (8-7-15), who are helping out John Tavares (12-6-18) with the secondary scoring I wasn't sure the Isles would have. I'm not sure I see the team continuing to score more than 3.5 goals per game, as they are now, and if that ticks downward it's going to be harder and harder to win games. The team's underlying metrics show a team that's about as good as the stats would indicate, so for now I'm moving up the Isles.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (7-6-2, 16 points, LW: 4): I have a feeling I'm going to say this every week: The mushy middle of the league has been so hard to sort out this early in the year. We'll likely get some separation as the year goes on, but so far, you could throw the teams in a hat after the top few and really put anyone anywhere on a given week. For the Flyers, the squad just posted a 1-1-2 week that included the indignity of losing to Arizona but also a blanking of a St. Louis team that looks to be among the class of the West this year. Defense had to be a concern coming into the year, but the team's youngsters appear to be coming along well in front of the goalie duo of Michal Neuvirth and Brian Elliott, who have the Flyers allowing 2.80 goals per game to place among the league's top third in defense. You also feel like the team will be able to score, with Jakub Voracek and Sean Couturier each at 18 points in the first 15 games.
6. Washington Capitals (7-6-1, 15 points, LW: 5): The Caps fall after a 2-0 week that included wins over the Islanders and Bruins. So why do they fall? First, the underlying stats would suggest the Caps aren't playing quite as well as the numbers would indicate, with the team boasting a negative xGF% and being outshot in five straight games. Plus, I figured it was time to move up the Islanders. I still expect at some point the Caps will turn it on as there's just too much talent there for them not to. The special teams each should get better, especially a penalty kill that's 27th in the league. The team's refurbished defense appears to still be taking some time to click, and I've touched on the shortage of scoring depth this year in the nation's capital. There's still a lot of star power, though, and the team knows how to win. I think there's still potential there.
7. New York Rangers (6-7-2, 14 points, LW: 8): Last week, I wrote the Rangers needed to get moving before it got too late to rise up the standings. They clearly listened, putting together a 3-0 week that included wins over Vegas, Tampa Bay and Florida, the latter two in a shootout. The offense appeared to find itself a bit by simply putting the puck on net, with the Rangers averaging 39 shots on goal in the wins. Kevin Shattenkirk is starting to pay dividends offensively with two goals in the last two games, while J.T. Miller has four points in that span.
8. Carolina Hurricanes (4-5-3, 11 points, LW: 7): It's still hard to judge the Canes, who have played four fewer games than the Penguins to this point. The shot numbers and xGF% would have you believe this team should be doing much better than four wins in 12 games, but it simply hasn't happened yet for Carolina, which has now lost four in a row including falling to Colorado and Arizona on the road last week. The culprit thus far is an offense scoring 2.58 goals per game, 26th in the league. Is the team just going through a cold patch or is there just not enough offensive talent there to pair with a burgeoning young defense? Time will tell, but seems like someone has to step up here.
