Star players are star players for a reason. They are able to overcome any adversity and score when the going gets tough. The old cliché "you can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them" proves true, over and over again. There is a reason why the adage has been around for so long.
Sidney Crosby is one of those players that fits the bill. He is a generational star that demands attention every time he steps up on the ice. As the Rocket Richard Trophy winner, scoring 44 goals on the season, he hasn't lost a step in his 12th year in the league. For any Blue Jacket fan, where he goes and what he does on the ice should be of the utmost concern.
Containing Crosby
Inevitably, the Blue Jackets are going to put Brandon Dubinsky on Sidney Crosby. It's all anyone wants to talk about before this series. One is the skilled player that has taken the league by storm and the other is the underdog player who tries his darnedest to be one of the best defensive forwards in the game.
It's the hockey version of David and Goliath.
The problem of the two matching up is the way approaches change. Dubinsky is a good defensive forward not for his grit and grime but because of his defensive awareness. He's in the right place in the right time. When Crosby is on the ice, Dubinsky tries to throw him off with physicality. It hasn't necessarily worked yet and one time it even resulted in a suspension.
My friend over at Buckeye State Hockey, Matt Souva, outlined what happens for the Jackets when the two go head-to-head. It's fascinating and shows that the perception around the matchup isn't exactly right.
The biggest takeaway? The comical number inflation. Crosby vs Dubinsky results in a big uptick in goals for both sides, and a marked change in shots against the Penguins. That means the “shutdown” narrative around Dubinsky just doesn’t hold up when facing Crosby.
Instead, what emerges is a story of wild offense. This is a battle that Dubinsky has lost more often (GF% over 50% for Crosby and Pittsburgh), but the battle challenges the Penguins to match fire with fire. A good game by either goalie could transform the big shot volume into a lopsided line victory, and maybe a key to the series.
The tension around the matchup actually leads to exciting hockey and not defensively stout play. Narratives come and go, but the fact that no one has pointed out the remarkable changes in their play is surprising. The Jackets are getting better offensive play from Dubinsky when on the ice against Crosby, not defense. High event hockey should be avoided at all costs when going against one of the most offensively gifted players of this generation. The GF% speaks for itself.
Lack of options
Even if Dubinsky/Crosby isn't the defensive showdown that everyone hoped it would be, other matchups don't prove to be anymore fruitful. Sam Gagner, Alex Wennberg and William Karlsson are all good players. Who do you want to trust against the world's best?
Wennberg has established himself as a No. 1 center this year while putting up great numbers. His point and shot differential totals bear all of that out. His sample size against Crosby isn't even big enough to mention, so do you want to throw him to the wolves like that? Considering that Brandon Saad and Nick Foligno are his linemates, defensively they should be responsible enough to keep him in check. If the Jackets get exposed early, he could be the option after Dubinsky.
Gagner and Karlsson are also options but don't inspire much hope. There is a reason that Gagner is used as an offensive weapon and is kept away from tough matchups. That should continue, especially when playing with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Scott Hartnell. They should be able to carve up a relatively weak bottom-six on the Penguins. Similarly, Karlsson is played on the fourth line for a reason. He has some defensive chops but his offensive play isn't suited for anything higher than a bottom-six role.
Even if the Jackets wanted to move away from the Dubinsky/Crosby matchup, doing so would take a lot of courage. He can roughshod over anyone in this league if given the chance. Inevitably, the Jackets are going to stick with the duel they know and love. The difference between the two sides is going to come down to the goaltending as both sides are high-volume shooters.
Murray had a .923 save percentage in the playoffs last season and a .923 save percentage this season. Consistency is going to be key. It's a big reason why the Penguins won the Stanley Cup last season. Bobrovsky needs to be better than his sub-.900 career postseason save percentage for this to be a series. Goals are going to come with Crosby on the ice; limiting them will be the hard part.
