Sample sizes.
"Getting a good sample size" is what we always strive for with analysis, and sports are no exception. A player can have a bad season and rebound a year later, and we're left to figure out which factors allowed the uptick to take place.
In the wake of a 5-1 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks last weekend, the Blue Jackets moved a lot of players around and, most notably, have added a different center (Nick Foligno) to their No. 1 line with Cam Atkinson and Artemi Panarin.
What prompted the moves, and are they the right moves to make so early in the season?
New #CBJ lines: 18-10-28, 9-71-13, 11-17-77, 22-45-37
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) October 9, 2017
Much of this feels inspired by Josh Anderson's insertion back in the lineup, and head coach John Tortorella immediately backed up that thought.
"With Josh (Anderson) coming back into the lineup, I changed some things, but I want to look at some other things also," Tortorella said to assembled media on Monday at Nationwide Arena.
The difference in numbers between the two games is night and day (in multiple categories). Tortorella reiterated that the sweeping line changes aren't coming from any numbers he is looking at.
"I never go by stats, I go by what I see," he said.
Whether by the eye test or by an abacus, these moves look like they may be influenced by both, whether or not their timing is odd with only two games under their belt.
Dubois-Wennberg-Bjorkstrand
Moving Pierre-Luc Dubois and Oliver Bjorkstrand to a new line with Alexander Wennberg could provide the right mix for what the Blue Jackets are looking for: more scoring chances. Dubois brings grit to his game and Bjorkstrand has a great shot, while Wennberg is a passer before anything else. Stylistically, they would gel without having to give it a second thought.
Dubois and Bjorkstrand have the highest percentage of scoring chances for and against through the first two games. The first and fourth lines from the previous two games are at the very bottom of these statistics, Wennberg included. Putting Bjorkstrand and Dubois with Wennberg is a real chance for the talented young center to correct those numbers in the short term.
Panarin-Foligno-Atkinson
Like the new Wennberg line, this group needs to rebound defensively. Foligno was in the top half of Blue Jackets in scoring chance percentage and was in the middle of multiple offensive plays during the first two games of the season. His face-off percentage was also strong.
Panarin and Atkinson both have points on their record, but their underlying numbers scream that they needed a change. Similar to Wennberg, they had horrendous numbers in regard to preventing scoring chances. The two diminutive forwards ranked first and fifth, respectively, on the team in raw scoring chances against. That needs to be improved upon and Foligno isn't a bad choice to help right the ship.
Calvert-Dubinsky-Anderson
This puts Calvert on his natural left side and allows for Anderson to enter into the lineup in a comfortable spot. There is a lot to like from the grit on the line, too; they're going to attack constantly, both defensively and offensively. They aren't going to back down and that is a dream for any coach, particularly one that continues to implore his team to play more aggressively.
Calvert and Dubinsky were both top-five in scoring percentages and Corsi For (CF%) percentage. Dubinsky has always been great in this regard, and it's no surprise that he was able to continue it. Slotting Anderson in with this group means that he's going to get a soft landing and won't get eaten alive in a possible top-six role. He might be ready for it, but putting him here is an entry-level approach. He'll have plenty of chances to move up.
Milano-Sedlak-Hannikainen
The fourth line was by far the worst line in both games. They weren't able to produce anything offensively, and defensively, they also let opposing teams move on them at will. A change was needed and Anderson's return may allow Milano to give the group a spark.
Milano scored two goals in two games, and production from the bottom-six forwards will be needed if the Blue Jackets intend to contend. Milano isn't going to shoot at 50 percent forever, but his speed, touch, and nose for the net will help a group that finished near the bottom of every underlying metric.
Changes like these early in a season can feel like a knee-jerk reaction, but can also be presented as lineup optimization. The Blue Jackets did just that by moving their lines into this current configuration, and now, they have to see if it works tomorrow night against the Carolina Hurricanes.
