The trade deadline is fast approaching.
The big storyline surrounding the Blue Jackets has been Jack Johnson. From his trade request to the reported contract negotiations, there is a lot going on. A smaller, less talked about story has been Matt Calvert.
Calvert, their longest-tenured player, is set to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1st. The idea behind trading him is the team would get something for him, rather than lose him for nothing in the summer. The alternative is keeping him as an “own rental.”
When looking at a decision like this, you have to look at the opportunity cost. In keeping Calvert, the Jackets are forgoing what he could bring back in a trade. Michael Grabner was just traded last night and Calvert could be considered a poor man’s Grabner. Both players are speedy wingers who kill penalties. Grabner is obviously a much more prolific goal-scorer, which is why he was so highly sought after. At the very least, these players over the last two seasons are somewhat comparable.
Visual from CJ Turtoro
Grabner was just traded for a second round pick and prospect Yegor Rykov. Because he doesn’t score as many goals, you are getting significantly less than that for Calvert.
Looking at the lower end of the spectrum, Torrey Mitchell was traded to the Kings for a conditional fifth round pick earlier in the year, which could end up as a fourth if the Kings make the playoffs. Mitchell is a player in that same type of mold of Calvert, though Calvert scores a bit more and has more of a defensive reputation. An appropriate value for player like Calvert would somewhere in the range of a third or fourth round draft pick.
This is a nice baseline to help with the decision. If an offer exceeds that value, trade him, if not keep him.
Keeping him isn’t a bad option. As mentioned, Calvert is a good penalty killer. He averages 1:28 on the PK for the Jackets the second highest among forwards. His speed makes him a constant short-handed threat. He’s scored one shorty this year and three the year prior. He’s not a big point producer but he chips in, you can usually count on him for about 10 goals. His possession numbers are like everything else, not spectacular but decent enough. This is a competent NHL player.
Right now, the Blue Jackets need competent players. They were never a deep team up front, and now injuries and ineffectiveness have started to take their toll. The Jackets brought in depth options, however none of them have worked out. Neither Jordan Schroeder nor Zac Dalpe has been able to shake the quad-A label. Tyler Motte wasn’t quite ready to make the jump to the NHL, and Jussi Jokinen hasn’t worked out either.
We know the Jackets are looking for a scoring forward, someone who will slot into the top six. They seem reluctant to pay a high price those teams are commanding and they might be better off just getting some better depth players.
For a team already thin at the forward position, trading Calvert and stretching that even thinner doesn’t make much sense. If the Jackets are able to get a second or third round pick (or an intriguing prospect), they'd have to consider it, but if not they would be better off keeping him. Calvert is a solid bottom six forward, and the team needs those.
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