As Seth Jones goes, perhaps so too go the Columbus Blue Jackets.
After a pedestrian 1-12-13 (G-A-PTS) stat line through 29 games, Jones has awakened offensively, posting 3-1-4 in the past three games. In the process, Jones has scored an overtime game-winning goal and a last-minute goal that sent a game to overtime. Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jackets are 2-0-1 in those three games, including 2-0-0 in the games in which he scored.
Plenty has been written about Jones' game in the past year, as debates over his worth rage on. Some find his defense to be problematic. Others think the Blue Jackets should trade him now to maximize value and not be on the hook for a potentially enormous contract. But regardless, basically everyone can agree that the Blue Jackets need Jones to be at his best for the team to even theoretically be a dangerous team.
Jones' offensive outburst over the past week couldn't come at a better time. The Blue Jackets have managed to take advantage of a fluttering Chicago Blackhawks team. With the Nashville Predators and Detroit Red Wings in the basement and the Dallas Stars with an intensely compact schedule the rest of the season, the window has opened for this Blue Jackets team (who had between a 4-6% chance of making the playoffs just three weeks ago) to make the playoffs.
Without having access to player tracking data, it's hard to say for certain that Jones has been more involved on the rush in the past handful of games than early in the season (though it sure feels like it). It is clear that the team has improved dramatically in its ability to exit its defensive zone cleanly. That plagued the team in a major way in the early portion of this season, and it has trickle-down effects on the entire roster. In an earlier loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, the Blue Jackets spent the game turning the puck over in their own zone.
When a team gets hemmed in and is unable to cleanly break the puck out of the defensive zone, there's no opportunity for rush chances. With a tired crew, the forward will often gain the red line and chip the puck in deep, and allow his team to go for a change. Then the process resets. But when a team can break out cleanly, defensemen can join the rush. Offensive pressure can be sustained. The ice begins to tilt in the other direction.
The first goal Jones scored in his recent outburst is the type of goal that has gone against the Blue Jackets all year. The Hurricanes turned the puck over inside the attacking zone and were left with only two players back. Jones jumped on the loose puck, found soft ice, and was rewarded with a rebound goal.
While it's a bit unfair to get credit for scoring on an odd-man rush in 3-on-3 overtime, Jones and the Blue Jackets again turn a Hurricanes offensive play into transition offense the other way. Here, Jones keeps it himself and unleashes a perfect wrist shot.
His third goal came off of a more traditional in-zone set, with Patrik Laine finding Jones through a seam. Jones used a Jaccob Slavin attempted blocked shot as a screen and beat James Reimer clean with a perfect shot over the blocker.
When Jones is pushing the pace on the rush, the team becomes more dangerous. Two-on-two's become three-on-two's. Plays that typically end in dump-ins become scoring chances. Put simply, everybody on the team becomes a more threatening player.
The Blue Jackets need Jones to be at his best for this team to have a fighting chance at success. While the season has been up and down for Jones (and thus the Blue Jackets), his latest offensive output has coincided with a team pushing for a playoff berth. And that's no coincidence.
