Lottery Look-Ahead: An Early Glance At The 2022 Draft Positioning For The Columbus Blue Jackets

By Ed Francis on February 2, 2022 at 1:27 pm
Shane Wright is expected to be the top draft pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. Will he end up in Columbus?
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It's never too early to think about the future.

The Columbus Blue Jackets pool of prospects already runs deep, but based on how things shake out the rest of the season, that pipeline may soon get even stronger.

This summer's draft is deep (although not as deep as 2023 is expected to be), so the Blue Jackets are rebuilding at the right time. Shane Wright is the expected top pick, but forwards Matthew Savoie and Logan Cooley are two of a few players with the potential to be game-changers, as well. 

As the Captain of the Kingston Frontenacs of the OHL, Wright has posted 15 goals and 28 assists in just 31 games — averaging well over a point per game. Savoie is in the WHL this year, and has 19 goals and 36 assists in 38 games. Cooley, 17, has committed to play at Notre Dame next season. His most recent was with the U.S. Under 18 National Team, where his stat line was 15g-22a-37p in 27 games.

So, can the Blue Jackets grab one of these players or someone of their ilk?

They very well could. 

As part of the trade that sent Seth Jones to the Chicago Blackhawks, the Blue Jackets own Chicago's first-round draft pick this summer, provided that it's not in the top two. In other words, if the Blue Jackets are going to win the draft lottery, they'll have to do it on their own. 

Columbus may be hard-pressed to get the number one pick; that is seemingly a two-man at this race point between Montreal and Arizona, who are battling it out for the league's worst record — and thus the best chance at the top pick. Still, the top two teams combined still have a less than 50% chance to claim the top spot. From the folks over at Tankathon, here's a look at the current projections and the odds of a team's selection based on where they finish in the standings:

Source: Tankathon

By point percentage, Columbus currently ranks 24th in the league, and Chicago right behind them at 25th. Spin that around, and it would come out to (if the lottery ran status quo) the 8th and 9th picks in the draft. That's not likely to get an immediate impact player like Wright, but it would mean there is a 97% chance of two picks in the top ten and a 100% chance of two picks in the top 11. 

But it only takes one ping pong ball to fall the right way. The odds are slim, but if things really go the right way, the Blue Jackets could end up with two of the top three picks. They win the lottery, and the Blackhawks finish bad enough to get the third pick, which would be shipped to Columbus. (Bonus: another reason to root against the Blackhawks!)

Shane Wright and Savoie, Cooley, or another elite talent in a deep draft — now how would that be for a fortunate series of events?

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