Every season, a few players out-perform their expectations.
The opposite is true, too: every season also has its share of players who fall short of expectations, struggle to find consistency, or in some cases, just haven't developed the way the organization would hope.
Here's a look at three Columbus Blue Jackets who just haven't lived up to expectations this season:
Vladislav Gavrikov
This one may be a little out of a left field, but the numbers suggest that Gavrikov has been a bit of a disappointment for the Blue Jackets this season. Of the ten defensive pairings with the most ice time this season, Gavrikov appears on four of them:
- Goals Against: 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th
- Expected Goals Against: 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th
If he were getting big minutes against the opposing teams top lines, that'd be one thing. But that has consistently been the job of Zach Werenski's line this season, and the two have shared the ice for an average of less than one minute per game this season.
Gavrikov already has more defensive zone giveaways this season (19) than he did last season (17), despite over two hours less ice time. He leads the team in that category, and turning the puck over in your own zone is a critical mistake to lead the team in. There's no reason to think he won't turn it around, but Gavrikov could (and should) be having a better year than he is.
Joonas Korpisalo
He's not played in front of a great defense, but the statistics are what they are. By every piece of data available, Korpisalo is having a bad season. There are 48 goalies who have 15 or more games played this season. Here are Korpisalo's ranks:
- Save Percentage: T-48th (.887)
- Save Percentage Above Expected: 47th (-.009)
- Goals Against Average: 47th (3.82)
- Goals Against vs Expected Goals Against: 47th (-0.50)
Those are — at best — the numbers of a fringe NHL goaltender.
There's a certain feeling that many on the 5th Line share: the Columbus defense plays better in front of Elvis Merzlikins. The data does not back that up. Korpisalo's expected goals against average this season sits at 3.32, while Merzlikins' 3.24 xGA is just 2.5% better. Merzlikins is not having the season many were hoping for, either, but his 3.31 goals against and .906 save percentage are significantly better than Korpisalo.
It's no secret that general manager Jarmo Kekalainen is shopping the 27-year-old Korpisalo, but there have been few-to-no takers thus far. Elliotte Friedman of the NHL Network said last week on The Jeff Marek Show that the Blue Jackets were asking for a second and third round draft pick for Korpisalo, a trade that no team would be willing to do given the season he's having.
If he's not dealt, Korpisalo is an unrestricted free agent who will not be back with the Columbus organization next season. The Korpi diehards will applaud it, saying he deserves better. In reality, it's the Blue Jackets who, for the last two seasons, have deserved better from their soon-to-be former goalie.
Jack Roslovic
The hometown kid has eight goals and 12 assists midway through his first full season in Columbus. His 20 points in 45 games gives him a 36-point pace over 82 games. That's not terrible, but a recent four-game point streak (that ended in Saturday's win over the Montreal Canadiens) inflated the pace, which sat at 32 before last week.
But it's disappointing, considering his stat line of 12g-22a-34p in just 48 games last season. Roslovic is 38% less productive in the point column when compared to 2020-21, and in nearly the same number of games played.
There's this, too: Of the four Blue Jackets who average more than two faceoffs per game, Roslovic is last by a wide margin — his 44.7% win rate at the dot is substantially worse than Boone Jenner (53.7%), rookie Cole Sillinger (49.0%), and Sean Kuraly (48.3%). Winning draws is an undervalued necessity at the center spot, and one that Roslovic will need to improve on if he career continues as a center.
Head coach Brad Larsen and company must notice something, too: Roslovic's 12:04 time on ice average this season is the lowest of any Columbus forward to appear in 15 or more games, is down nearly five minutes from last season, and down nearly three minutes from his last full season in Winnipeg, when his lack of ice time was a driving force behind his trade request.
In other words: that breakout season that the Columbus organization was hoping for? It just hasn't happened. Roslovic's name has been mentioned as a possible trade commodity for Kekalainen, and at this point, it seems at least plausible that Roslovic's tenure in the city he was raised in will last only two partial seasons.
