Don't confuse this with false hope.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are a longshot to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season.
But, in year one of a rebuild retool, a spot in the postseason can be deduced to this: shoot for wildcard two.
It's a relatively clean path. Here's the breakdown:
It would take a near Herculean effort for the Blue Jackets to crack an automatic spot as one of the top three teams in the Metropolitan Division. Those spots right now are:
- Carolina: 37-11-5, 79 points in 53 games, on pace for 122.2.
- Pittsburgh: 33-14-8, 74 points in 55 games, on pace for 110.3.
- NY Rangers: 33-15-5, 71 points in 53 games, on pace for 109.8.
Considering that Columbus is on pace for 86.6 points, it's all but mathematically impossible that the only hope for a playoff berth would come with a wildcard spot. Those spots are currently occupied by:
- Boston: 32-18-4, 68 points in 54 games, on pace for 103.3.
- Washington: 28-18-9, 65 points in 55 games, on pace for 96.9.
Getting into wildcard one is only slightly less of a pipedream than going top three in the division, but that second wildcard spot? That's worth exploring a little. Before that, though, it would be fair to consider the other two teams that can make a case for chasing the last spot:
- Detroit: 24-24-6, 54 points in 54 games, on pace for 82.0.
- NY Islanders: 20-21-8, 48 points in 49 games, on pace for 80.3
But ultimately, it's extremely likely that Columbus' journey to May hockey is two-fold: they must continue playing really good hockey, and the Washington Capitals must continue playing really mediocre hockey. Could one of those teams catch fire and overtake Columbus? Certainly, especially the Islanders; they've been underperforming all year and it feels like they could go on a run at any time. But if the Blue Jackets are to make the necessary push, the Islanders (or Red Wings) would have a monumental task in front of them.
| Team | W | L | T | PTS | GP | PACE |
| Washington | 28 | 18 | 9 | 65 | 55 | 96.9 |
| Columbus | 28 | 25 | 1 | 57 | 54 | 86.6 |
As of Wednesday morning, the Blue Jackets are on pace to finish 10.3 points behind the Capitals for the second wildcard spot — and would finish as the best non-playoff team in the conference.
That gap has been shrinking in recent weeks, though. Columbus has picked up 14 points in their last ten games, while the Caps have managed just eight in that same span. Washington's lead of 14 points over the Blue Jackets is down to eight, and D.C. has played one more game to date. That's a chance to turn a deficit of eight into a deficit of six with the number of games evened up. (Washington will play again Thursday, while Columbus' next game is Friday night.)
Trailing by eight points and on pace to finish ten out may seem significant, but consider this: Before Tuesday's home win over the New Jersey Devils, the Blue Jackets were set to finish 11.8 points back. Ten games ago? The Blue Jackets were on pace for 80.1, and the Capitals for 103.8 — a difference of 23.7. Again, it's now just 10.3.
In other words: since the Blue Jackets defeated the Capitals 5-4 back on February 8th, they've narrowed the projected margin between the two teams by 57%.
Surely that pace can't keep up, right? If it were to do so, the Blue Jackets would make it in with relative ease over Washington. But let's just say that the Capitals recent fall is tamed, and their point projection stops its recent freefall: Washington finishes at 97 points. Columbus would need 40 points in their last 28 games to hit that same mark. They can get to that number a few different ways, but since the Blue Jackets hate overtime losses (just one on the season when every other team has at least three), let's keep it easy: 20-8-0 would catch the Capitals. (For the Capitals to finish at 97 points, a record of 15-10-2 would be the most likely avenue).
These are just paces, though. The opponent matter, too — and here's how that breaks down:
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Games Against Each Other:
One (March 17th at Nationwide Arena)
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Games Against Top 5 Teams (by point percentage):
Columbus: 3 (two at home), Washington: 7 (four at home)
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Games Against Sub-.500 Teams:
Columbus: 8 (four at home), Washington: 9 (five at home)
The Blue Jackets have fewer games against the nine sub-.500 teams, but they also have a little more balance than their division brethren — and less than half the number of games against the five best teams in the league (by point percentage).
Right now, the analytic sites give this only slightly more than a slim chance of happening: MoneyPuck says there is a 4.7% chance of seeing Columbus in the postseason, Evolving Hockey claims 8.2%, and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight gives the Blue Jackets an 11% chance of extra hockey. Hockey Reference likes Columbus' chance the best of the reputable sites, with a 14.7% chance of climbing the mountain. All of these numbers are on the way up, though — just two weeks ago, MoneyPuck was under 2% and none of the four were in double-digits.
One thing to really watch, if the Blue Jackets can hang steady in over the next few weeks: The Capitals have an absolutely tumultuous schedule to end March and kickoff April: Carolina, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Boston. That five-game stretch could go a long way in determining Washington's finish.
In the shorter term, the Blue Jackets are two games through an eight-game stretch where seven are at Nationwide Arena. They're 1-1 so far — can they win four of the last six, five of which are at home? That gives them a 5-3 stretch with one more game — at Ottawa — the night before the St. Patrick's Day showdown. 6-3 in that run would boost Columbus to a pace of 90.1 points.
Washington, meanwhile, has six games left before that return to Nationwide. A west coast road trip that sends them to Edmonton and Calgary are included in that, and a game with Carolina (Thursday night; go Canes) is mixed in there too. Let's say they go 3-3 during that stretch. With that, the Washington pace is down to 95.4.
Coup de grace: Columbus is on pace to finish 5.3 back entering 3/17, and the Blue Jackets pick up the victory. All of a sudden, the paces would be: Washington 94, Columbus 91. Before that seems too far-fetched, all that would need to happen is for the Blue Jackets to do in their next ten games what they did in their last ten (7-3-0), and for the Capitals to play .500 hockey over the next two weeks.
Meaningful hockey in March? Time will tell, but the month sure is coming in like a lion.
