Game Preview: Blue Jackets, Capitals Meet In Key Metropolitan Division Matchup

By Ed Francis on March 17, 2022 at 7:05 am
GameDay: If the Columbus Blue Jackets are to have any hope of a chance at the postseason, a St. Patrick's Day victory over the Washington Capitals is an absolute must.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
0 Comments
Capitals
WASHINGTON CAPITALS
33–18–10 (76 points; .623%)
ROSTER / SCHEDULE

7:00 P.M. – THURSDAY, MARCH 17TH
NATIONWIDE ARENA 
COLUMBUS, OHIO

Bally Sports Ohio
ESPN+ (Out of Network)

To play meaningful hockey in April, a team has to play meaningful hockey in March. 

For the Columbus Blue Jackets, any chance of meaningful hockey next month will require a regulation win Thursday against the Washington Capitals.

The math is relatively simple: Columbus trails Washington by 11 points for the last wildcard spot, and both teams have 21 games remaining on their schedule. Three things need to happen for the Blue Jackets to remain "in the hunt" for a spot: they need to get hot, Washington needs to go cold, and Thursday cannot be anything but a regulation victory for the home team. (The New York Islanders are eight points behind Columbus and have four less games played, but for the sake of keeping it simple, the math below is simply to catch the Caps.)

A regulation loss would put Columbus 13 points back with 20 to go. Even if Washington played .500 hockey the rest of the season (finishing at 98 points), Columbus would need to find a way to get 33 points in their last 20 games (for example, a 16-3-1 finish to the season). That's just not happening. 

But a regulation win, and things becoming a little more interesting. That would make the deficit nine points. At that point, .500 hockey from the Capitals would put them at 96 points, and the Blue Jackets could climb the mountain with 29 points over the last 20 games. 14-5-1 would still be a tall order, but remember, this team started 12-6-0.

The Blue Jackets might also be peaking at the right time. Wednesday's 4-1 win over the Ottawa Senators was their third consecutive victory, and a win Thursday would match a season-high with four straight in the left column. Jakub Voracek and Justin Danforth returned to the lineup, with defenseman Adam Boqvist joining the team in practice and seemingly not far from his return. 


CBJ SEASON STATS WSH
3.26 GOALS FOR 3.25
3.62 GOALS AGAINST 2.79
18.1% POWER PLAY 18.6%
79.4% PENALTY KILL 80.7%
29.9 SHOTS FOR 31.2
35.5 SHOTS AGAINST 29.2
47.2% CF% (EVEN) 47.5%
49.2% FACEOFF WINS 47.3%
PACES & PROJECTIONS
34.5% MONEYPUCK'S ODDS TO WIN 65.5%
49.0% THE 538'S ODDS TO WIN 51.0%
87.4 82-GAME POINT PACE 102.1

RE: CAPITALS

Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, the Capitals have gotten hot at the wrong (at least for Columbus) time. After three straight regulation losses, Washington has picked up points in six consecutive games, going 5-0-1 so far in the month of March. They've went to overtime in three consecutive games, most recently winning an eight-round shootout over the New York Islanders. 

Alexander Ovechkin has, unsurprisingly, been a key catalyst in the Caps success. He has five goals and three assists over the last six games, adding to his team-leading 37 goals and 72 points. Fellow Russian Evgeny Kuznetsov is the team-leader in assists (40), and with 59 points is the only other Capital to have hit the 50-point mark this season. Defenseman John Carlson will join them with his next point; the veteran defenseman has a stat line of 10-39-49 in 57 games, putting together yet another strong season. 

Despite Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek splitting duties for a majority of the season, it's been Vanecek who has started five of the last six games for Washington — with Samsonov between the pipes in their only loss of those games. The Caps are heading into a back-to-back, so who gets the start Thursday remains to be seen (as of early Thursday morning), but the Capitals have two capable goalies and it's a fair assumption to think they'll split the next two nights.


STORYLINES

  • CONTRIBUTIONS FROM EVERYWHERE
    You never know where the offense is going to come from with the Blue Jackets. Wednesday's win came compliments of a pair of goals from Jack Roslovic and another from Eric Robinson. Patrik Laine, tied for the team lead in goals with Boone Jenner, didn't score in the game — but was all over the ice and had a large role in the victory. Laine did pick up an assist, tying him with Oliver Bjorkstrand for the team lead in points at 45. Jenner is just one behind them, and Jake Voracek's right there too, with 43 points (40 of which have come on assists). This is a balanced offense, with all four lines capable of leading the team on any given night. 
     
  • GO GET IT
    It's now or never. A home game on St. Patrick's Day against a division rival — the crowd should be large and loud. Use the motivation of the 5th Line and pick up two points to make it interesting down the stretch. 

PROJECTED LINES*

LW C RW
14 Gus Nyquist 96 Jack Roslovic 29 Patrik Laine
16 Max Domi 34 Cole Sillinger 28 Oliver Bjorkstrand
93 Jake Voracek 7 Sean Kuraly 59 Yegor Chinakhov
50 Eric Robinson 52 Emil Bemstrom 17 Justin Danforth
LD RD
8 Zach Werenski 2 Andrew Peeke
44 Vladislav Gavrikov 22 Jake Bean
46 Dean Kukan 53 Gabriel Carlsson
Starting Goalie Backup
90 Elvis Merzlikins 70 Joonas Korpisalo

*SUBJECT TO CHANGE

0 Comments