With the Columbus Blue Jackets firmly out of playoff contention and the season in its final dozen or so games, it's time to start wondering: What position will the organization be drafting from this July?
While the bounce of a ping pong ball one way or the other could change a teams fortune, the best odds are always chalk. Here's what to keep in mind and what you need to know to hold your own when the inevitable draft conversation comes up between now the end of the season.
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COLUMBUS HAS TWO FIRST ROUND PICKS — probably. They own their pick, yes, but the Seth Jones trade last summer gave the Blue Jackets the first-rounder owned by the Chicago Blackhawks, unless the Blackhawks win one of the two lotteries and get a top-two pick. If that happens, Columbus will get Chicago's pick in the summer of 2023 — regardless of where it is. Our own Dan Dukart recently went in-depth on this topic, and it's easy to see both sides of the coin when it comes to whether or not the Blue Jackets would be better off with the Blackhawks' pick this summer or next.
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THE NHL HAS RECENTLY TWEAKED some of its draft rules. This will be the second year in which the league will hold only two drawings: one for first and one for second. This means the worst team can't go beyond third, something that had happened three times in the four draft lotteries before the rule change. Also, remember that there is now a restriction on teams moving up more than ten spots. That's big for the Blue Jackets, because it means that only the bottom 11 teams in the standings are eligible to win the lottery. By point percentage, the Blue Jackets are currently the 12th worst team. That means they are eligible to pick as high as second, but as of Monday afternoon, can not win the number one pick.
When is the draft lottery, by the way? We don't know. The league has not announced a date yet. It will happen sometime during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, most likely in May. The draft itself will begin July 7th.
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THERE IS A HUGE BENEFIT to the Blue Jackets six-game skid right now, as tough as it is to watch. They've recently been passed by the New York Islanders in the standings and are tightly grouped with the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks for the 10th, 11th, and 12th-worst positions. The Blue Jackets are eight points ahead of the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres, who are tied for the 8th (and 9th) worst record in the league, so for Columbus to finish with a bottom-nine record from this point would mean they need to be dreadful in the final month, and a bad team would have to get hot. It would also behoove the Blue Jackets draft positioning for the Isles (73 points) to stay hot and for the Vancouver Canucks (74) to finish strong: they are four and five points ahead of Columbus, respectively, and if either of those teams struggle down the stretch, the Blue Jackets could leap either of those teams and make themselves ineligible for the top pick.
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Meanwhile, the BLACKHAWKS CURRENTLY OWN the 7th-worst record in the league. Finishing in the top three is almost impossible at this point, but if the chips fall just right, they could end up as high as 4th-worst. Chicago is at 59 points and are three, four, and five points ahead of the teams that are 4th (New Jersey), 5th (Philadelphia), and 6th (Ottawa) from the bottom — but Chicago has played at least one more game than each of those teams. The Blackhawks have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule, but the Devils, Flyers, and Senators (and Blue Jackets) aren't far behind: all have one of the ten easiest schedules remaining.
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Are CHARTS MORE YOUR THING? Same. Here's an entirely different way to look at all of the information above from the perspective of a 5th Liner:
NHL Draft Lottery Odds TEAM 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 32nd 25.7 18.7 55.6 31st 12.1 13.6 32.2 42.2 30th 10.9 10.9 7.0 39.7 31.5 29th 9.7 9.9 13.7 43.6 23.1 28th 8.5 8.8 21.6 44.4 16.8 27th 7.6 7.9 30.0 43.0 11.5 CHI 6.7 7.0 39.7 39.1 7.4 25th 5.8 6.2 49.4 34.0 4.6 24th 5.4 5.8 58.6 27.6 2.7 23rd 4.5 4.8 67.7 21.5 1.4 22nd 3.1 3.4 75.9 16.9 0.8 CBJ 3.2 2.5 81.7 12.3 0.4 20th 2.7 1.9 86.9 8.3 0.1 As of Monday afternoon, Columbus is most likely to pick 7th and 12th. They have a 39.7% chance of getting Chicago's 7th, and own an 81.7% chance of picking at #12 with their selection. The absolutely worst case scenario (at present time) is 9th and 14th, and the absolutely best case is 2nd and 7th — Columbus getting their best possible odds at #2 and Chicago's #7 spot (remember, the Blackhawks getting a top two pick this summer means it stays with Chicago).
But a little bit of luck and the right teams winning, and things could change dramatically. Let's look at a few conceivable options, but before we do that — who are the right teams to root for? Pretty much, everyone mentioned above other than the Blackhawks. That said, some teams are more important than others when it comes to helping Columbus' odds to get the best pick possible. Another graph:WHO TO ROOT FOR, RANKED BY SIGNIFICANCE TEAM REMAINING OPPONENTS SJ EDM CGY @VAN @NSH @CHI @DAL @MIN CBJ STL CHI @VGK ANA @EDM @SEA ANA CGY @PHI @CAR @FLA @TB CBJ LA @LA STL @SJ DAL x x x OTT @MTL NSH @NYR WPG @DET @BOS TOR @SEA @VAN @CBJ MTL NJ FLA @PHI PHI CBJ @CBJ ANA @WSH NYR @BUF BUF @TOR @MTL PIT @CHI @WPG OTT x NJ NYR MTL @DAL @ARZ @COL @SEA @VGK BUF CAR DET @OTT @CAR DET x DET BOS @WPG CBJ OTT @CAR @NYR FLA @TB @FLA PIT @NJ @TOR NJ x BUF CAR @CAR @FLA @TB @TOR STL PHI @PHI @NJ NYI @BOS CHI x x NYI @DAL @CAR @STL PIT @PIT @MTL @TOR FLA NYR @BUF CAR @WSH WSH TB VAN @VGK @ARZ SJ VGK ARZ DAL OTT @MIN @CGY SEA LA @EDM x x Games in the light red are games against Chicago; those are particularly critical. Chicago losing those games is, of course, great for Columbus — but they could be beneficial in more ways than one. That late-season game between San Jose and Chicago, for example, will have the potential to not only push Chicago down a spot, but also bump Columbus into a better draft position if the Sharks and Blue Jackets are still neck-and-beck.
Games with a pastel green background are where two teams on the list face each other; those games going to overtime could be especially beneficial for Columbus, as it means the teams will collectively pick up three points in the standings as opposed to two. Games in the light union blue are against Columbus — let's call those "conundrum games."
As for those Blackhawks, here's their remainingopportunities for lossschedule:
Chicago kicked off a five-game homestand with an overtime loss to Arizona. One point, but at least they didn't get a pair. They have four games left in Chicago, and two of those (Dallas and Los Angeles) have plenty to play for, as the Stars are one point out of a wildcard spot (though have games in hand) and the Kings are holding second by one point over Edmonton and trail the division-leading Flames by only three points. Ending with two of the last three against the Flyers and Sabres isn't really great for Columbus' sake, but again, this team just lost at home to Arizona. Anything can happen.Blackhawks' Remaining Schedule 4/7 vs Seattle 4/20 @ Arizona 4/10 vs Dallas 4/21 @ Los Angeles 4/12 vs Los Angeles 4/23 @ San Jose 4/14 vs San Jose 4/25 vs Philadelphia 4/16 @ Nashville 4/27 vs Vegas 4/18 vs Calgary 4/29 @ Buffalo It will be really tough to root against the Blue Jackets, I know — but it may pay off in huge ways for the future. And hey, if they do win — it's just going to build confidence going into the 2022-23 season.
Go Jackets..?
