Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a model of consistency since making his NHL debut with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2015-16.
Which is why it's surprising that he's been held off the scoresheet (0-0-0) for the past 10 games. Twice this season Bjorkstrand has had four-game pointless streaks, but that's peanuts compared when compared to a 10-game streak. In 75 games this season, that he's still managed to tally a career-high in goals (24) and points (50) is somewhat unexpected given his recent slide.
I was curious what could be leading to this cold spell; could it be due to a reduction in ice time? Is it new linemates? Is it the power play? Is he simply not creating as much offense as normal?
For starters, let's get this out of the way. A 50-point, play-driving winger who is responsible defensively and is signed at a very reasonable $5.4M cap hit through 2025-26 is a huge win for the Blue Jackets. Per The Athletic's Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn player cards (updated on Tuesday), Bjorkstrand is still very much a "top" player in many categories, just short of the "elite" classification. His estimated market value of $7M means that, even now, the top-six winger is still an excellent value.
So what has caused him to go cold over these past 10 games?
Despite the changing personnel, Bjorkstrand's ice time usage has remained quite steady. In his first 65 games, in which he tallied 24-26-50, he averaged 17:57 TOI. In the last 10 games, he's averaged 17:45. So if it's not ice time, is it linemates?
Per LeftWingLock, the third most consistent line the Blue Jackets have deployed all season at 5v5 (by minutes) was Boone Jenner centering Gus Nyquist and Bjorkstrand. That line worked for several reasons, but the long and short of it is that all three players had defined roles that benefited each individual player. Jenner was the hard-driving center that won faceoffs with ease, Nyquist the cerebral playmaker, and Bjorkstrand the talented finisher. Since Jenner's injury, Bjorkstrand has been just okay, and his most recent 10 games show him primarily playing alongside Justin Danforth and Sean Kuraly, and to a lesser extent with Nyquist and Cole Sillinger.
While Danforth and Kuraly have exceeded expectations this season, that's a bottom-six line, stylistically speaking, and hasn't allowed Bjorkstrand to get the looks off the rush that he's best equipped to manage. And while Sillinger looks to have a very bright future in the NHL, he's (today) a step down from Jenner (it's also worth noting that Jenner had 23 goals in 59 games this season).
It's safe to say linemates have perhaps negatively impacted his recent (lack of) success. But is it fair to pin this spiral squarely on them? Using NaturalStatTrick, I analyzed his 5v5 game log for this season to see what else I could glean.
Some of the metrics are basically unchanged. His shot share, for example, went from 49.5% in his first 65 games to 49.6% in his past 10. But unsurprisingly, playing alongside lesser players has resulted in a lower on-ice shooting percentage. In the first 65 games, 7.6% of all 5v5 shots went in while Bjorkstrand was on the ice (for the Blue Jackets, that is). In the last 10 games, that's plummeted to 4.4%. While his line has been able to steer the puck towards the opposition's net with the same regularity, it's simply not as threatening. This checks out in the data, too, as his goals-for % went from 42% (first 65) to 28% (last 10).
The last factor that has hampered Bjorkstrand's production is the power play. Over the past 10 games, the team has gone ice cold on the power play, converting just 2/27 (7.4%). While the power play has only produced at 17.3% for the season, it's still not surprising that a unit with Adam Boqvist, Emil Bemstrom, Jack Roslovic, Jakub Voracek, and Bjorkstrand has been stymied in recent games.
The hope heading into the offseason is that Bjorkstrand is healthy and can recharge for next season. Bjorkstrand is still a talented top-six winger and should benefit from another offseason of growth from the young players around him. So while this 10-game stretch is obviously far from ideal, it's also not a huge cause for concern.
