"I'm not going to talk about goaltending."
That was the quote uttered by exasperated head coach Brad Larsen when asked about the second goal allowed by Elvis Merzlikins during Saturday's 6-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
It should be noted that his refusal to talk about goaltending wasn't necessarily aimed at Merzlikins, as Larsen did not want to make any excuses for the overall performance of his team. But while he didn't want to address it, we will.
On Monday, Ed Francis talked about the emerging elephant in the room, offering up a possible goalie controversy? There's merit to that. Through Merzlikins' four starts, the underlying metrics are bad.
Merzlikins has to show a drastic improvement if he's to elevate himself into the next echelon of top-tier goaltenders, and in turn, help take the Columbus Blue Jackets to the next level. The defense in front is not good but individual stats that isolate a goaltender's play show where another weakness on the team lies.
So far this season, Merzlikins has allowed 17 goals and his expected goals against is 12.51. His goals saved above expected is -4.98, which places him 63rd among 65 goalies to play so far this season per Evolving-Hockey.
Who else but Sid? Sidney Crosby finishes off Dumoulin's terrific centering pass to give Pittsburgh the 4-3 lead!#LetsGoPens pic.twitter.com/491o3mBGL2
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) October 23, 2022
On Saturday night, the Penguins' xGF in 5v5 situations was 2.65 per Natural Stat Trick. As Larsen alluded to following Saturday's game, the go-ahead goal by Sidney Crosby to put the Penguins ahead 4-3 at 5:38 of the third period comes about right after a face-off loss in the Blue Jackets' own end with Crosby being left all alone to take the shot.
"It's awful," Larsen said. "We give up two face-off goals in the third period. Just killer. Should never happen."
Most of the goals allowed by Merzlikins did not look good, but that's one play that's hard to fault Merzlikins on.
"There's something leading up to that," Larsen said. "That (goal) wouldn't even matter if we did A-B. Because it got to C because we didn't do A-B right.
"Those are stop plays, cookie cutter, you know your assignment. Do it, get it done. C is the end result of doing A and B wrong."
Merzlikins was animated in the net all night during Saturday's game, from swiping at pucks to sprawling around the crease to showing his frustration, most notably after Pittsburgh's second goal, a blast from the blue line by Jan Ruuta.
Pens dman Jan Rutta with a blast from the point, hes scored goals now in back to back games. #Roots pic.twitter.com/3zhZ6s3pie
— Allan Walsh (@walsha) October 23, 2022
Merzlikins' demeanor and play in the net were of stark contrast to the poise and confidence exhibited by Daniil Tarasov in his start less than 24 hours later on Sunday at Madison Square Garden where the Blue Jackets rebounded in a huge way, winning 5-1. Tarasov earned his first career victory in Sunday's game.
Even when there are defensive breakdowns or a sequence of plays ahead of an eventual goal, that otherwise might have been prevented, the last line of defense has to be better in the situations where Merzlikins has yet to take that step this season.
Merzlikins' rebounds per save (0.089) are the fourth highest according to MoneyPuck. His low danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage is 0.926 (59th of 65 goalies) when his expected total in that area is 0.975 (7th).
Nine of the 17 goals allowed by Elvis Merzlikins this season have been categorized by @MoneyPuckdotcom as a low-danger chance.
— CBJ Stats (@BlueJacketStats) October 23, 2022
For comparison, there were 17 goals scored Friday night between the three games played. A total of three were categorized as low-danger. #CBJ
There have been interesting goals taken from shots that have somehow made their way through, which is going to happen to any goalie, but it seems to be happening a little too much in the starts made by Merzlikins.
Such as during the 5-3 win over the Nashville Predators on Oct. 20 when Yakov Trenin scored on a shot with an xG value of 1.1% per Evolving-Hockey.
Evolving-Hockey
The shot originates from far out and goes through four players in front, so maybe Merzlikins' view was obstructed, but it's a tough goal to allow at that moment.
Yakov Trenin turns out of the corner and finds twine through a ton of traffic to push Nashville's lead back to 2!#Preds pic.twitter.com/b87pVsRieM
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) October 21, 2022
Merzlikins has had better stretches during the course of his career and it's expected he'll provide a glimpse of that again. But can he do that consistently?
It's only a handful of games at this point, but in his second year where he's supposed to be counted on as the No. 1 guy between the pipes, and in year one of a five-year contract with a cap hit of $5.4 million, the time is now for the 28-year-old to justify the belief the Blue Jackets front office displayed in him.
As Tarasov's performance on Sunday showed, he's proving he can make it in this league, and he should garner more nods as the starter.
Brad Larsen on giving Daniil Tarasov another start tonight: "These guys (the goaltenders) decide it. He played a great game. Elvis hasn't been at his best, and that's okay to say out loud." #CBJ
— 1st Ohio Battery (@1stOhioBattery) October 25, 2022
That'll be the case on Tuesday night as Tarasov will protect the cage against the Arizona Coyotes at 7 pm ET.
Merzlikins will get his opportunities to right the ship and change his fortunes but it's time to ride the hot hand in Tarasov for now.
