Calling the first 12 games of the Jackets' 2022-23 season disappointing would be the understatement of the year.
The Blue Jackets are currently the worst team in the NHL. In his piece yesterday, my colleague Dan Dukart detailed just how putrid this team has been 12 games into the season.
The club is in the basement of the NHL standings with a 3-9-0 record. According to some services, their playoff odds are the lowest in the league, and slightly higher (though still under 1%) in others. In their nine losses, the club has yet to lose by just one or two goals - losses nonetheless, but at least an indication that a heartbeat pulsed in the third period of a game. They've currently lost five games in a row, being outscored 28-8 in that timeframe. Miraculously, they've managed to not even hold a lead once in that five-game stretch. Not even accidentally for a moment were they the team dictating the game. Incredible.
To read his full piece, click the link in the related box above.
Over the last year or so, the team's front office hasn't put a distinct label on the current phase of the team, so I will. This is a full-on rebuild. It's not a retool and they aren't just a few pieces away from competing. Depending on when you put the start time on this phase, I'd say 2021-22 but you could argue 2020-21, this is year two of a lengthy and painful process known as a rebuild. Sure, finishing with 81 points just a game under .500 last year was a nice surprise, but this year has been anything but. How do you sign the top free agent on the market in Johnny Gaudreau and get worse?
I see and hear all the disappointment from the fans both in the stands at Nationwide Arena and online, and I get it. If I was a Jackets fan, I too would want a major change or an explanation for this start, especially when you haven't had much to be excited about over the 22-season history of the franchise that hasn't won more than six playoff games in a single season.
So, who's to blame for this start?
You could say it's head coach Brad Larsen. How does he get the 2021-22 team to overachieve and then once Gaudreau and higher expectations arrive hold the league's worst record?
On the one hand, you'd be correct. Not only is this team 3-9-0, but they hold the league's worst power play at 6.1% (2-33), they allow the second-most goals (4.58) and score the second-fewest goals (2.50).
According to naturalstattrick.com, they are 23rd in 5v5 expected goals scored (22.1), 29th in 5v5 expected goals allowed (27.45), 18th in 5v5 goals scored (24), and 32nd in 5v5 goals allowed (42).
On the other hand, you could say that a coach is only as good as the roster the GM puts together, and this Blue Jackets roster isn't very good. Boone Jenner has scored 2-4--6 in 12 games and is 124th among centers with an 0.31 average game score according to hockeystatcards.com (minimum six games). For reference, Roope Hintz's 2.12 average game score is tops among centers and Derek Grant's -0.70 is the worst. Jenner might be the team's best center, but on a contending team is he any better than a third-line center? Cole Sillinger is still only 19 years old, so his slow start (0-2--2) can be attributed to a sophomore slump. Jack Roslovic (1-5--6, 163rd among Cs in avg. game score at 0.09), counts $4M against the cap and has not played up to that value.
Patrik Laine counts $8.7M against the cap and has scored just two goals in six games with a 0.51 average game score. He has to be better, especially since extending him was the main reason Jarmo Kekalainen traded Oliver Bjorkstrand (29-28--57 in '21-'22) to Seattle for 2023 third-and-fourth-round picks, a.k.a pennies on the dollar. Gaudreau has the team's best average game score at 0.64 which is 46th-best among LWs with at least six games played. He counts $9.75M against the cap and while he may not replicate his 115-point performance from last season, his 5-4--9 puts him on pace for 34-27--61 over 82 games, which would be the second-lowest point total in his career with at least 70 games played in a season. Is that good enough for a player who carries the fourth-highest cap hit among wingers?
The same applies to Zach Werenski (2-4--6, 82nd among D in avg. game score) who is the team's best blue-liner but has the third-highest cap hit among defensemen at $9.583M. Erik Gudbranson counts $4M against the cap and he has the worst average game score among NHL players. That contract is not looking good at all. And sorry, I don't buy the idea that Gudbranson helped bring Gaudreau to Columbus. Vladislav Gavrikov has the third-worst average game score in the NHL. Andrew Peeke has the 161st-best average game score among defensemen with six games played.
Elvis Merzlikins has the worst average game score among goalies and he's in the first year of a five-year/$5.4M AAV contract.
The players play hard, but maybe the aren't as good as I or others thought.
All of the above contracts and the entire roster construction are on Kekalainen and he definitely deserves his fair share of the blame, especially since he's been in charge for nearly 10 years and guided the team to just one playoff series victory.
However, maybe this is how it's supposed to be. Maybe the plan all along was to be bad this year and get a chance to draft Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, or Matvei Michkov. Maybe the management is just waiting for David Jiricek, Corson Ceulemans, Denton Mateychuk, Kirill Marchenko, and other prospects to be ready before they really start to be contenders.
If that's the case, shouldn't Brad Larsen get to coach until the team is ready to compete so he has the chance to show he can coach a competitor? Or will Larsen just be a sacrificial lamb?
Will the Jackets be able to turn it around?
