The Columbus Blue Jackets' entire season to date has been a struggle, but perhaps no aspect of their game has been more of a disappointment than the power play.
With the addition of superstar Johnny Gaudreau, who had 25 power play points a season ago with the Calgary Flames, optimism was high. Patrik Laine was thought to have been tailormade to be on the left flank opposite Gaudreau, and Jakub Voracek is a natural fit for the low spot. Quarterback Zach Werenski possesses the firepower to threaten opposing penalty kills. Everything looks good... But reality has not met expectations.
Instead, the Blue Jackets are just 2-of-33 with the man advantage, by far the lowest percentage (6.1%) in the NHL. For reference, the Anaheim Ducks, 31st in the NHL, are 4-of-35 (11.4%), and the Colorado Avalanche (1st) are chugging along at 13-of-34 (38.2%). Amazingly, their numbers are almost inflated given recent results - the Blue Jackets started the season on a 0-23 run before scoring a power play goal in both games in Finland against the Avalanche to finally get on the board. But even still, the club managed to go just 1 of 7 in the first game, which isn't exactly a cause for celebration (though to give credit where it's due they did go 1-for-1 in game two).
The glass-half-full observer would say the club has finally turned a corner and is now 25% in the last two games. Someone with a glass-half-empty outlook would suggest that it's a slight regression to a mean that is still well-below league average, even in a best-case scenario. Maybe somewhere in the middle?
First, let's dig into the raw numbers. Incredibly, the club has scored as many power-play goals (two) as they've surrendered while on said power-play. Put another way, the club's goals-for percentage is 50%, whereas the league average is 88% (actually slightly higher, as this takes into consideration their two goals against). Per NaturalStatTrick, the club's 2.13 goals/60 minutes is the lowest in the NHL. For reference, the Avalanche are scoring nearly seven times that clip (!) at 14.35 goals/60. From an expected-goals standpoint, the Blue Jackets are actually more middle of the pack with an xG/60 of 6.67 (24th). That's not great, but an extra four power-play goals this season is probably the difference between losing and winning a few games. Only the Florida Panthers have a bigger difference between their xG and actual goals (Florida is at 5.48 vs. Columbus at 4.54). The Avalanche, notably, have scored 7.16 more goals than expected.
Per HockeyViz, the club fails to generate league-average shot volume from the most dangerous area on the ice, directly in front of the net. To me, this signifies a lack of general shooting on the power play. It's hard to generate passes to this area of the ice, where the defense collapses. Sometimes, the best way to create these chances is simply creating chaos by outnumbering the opponent after a shot attempt. Or, at the very least, the net-front player can get a screen/tip.
Coincidentally, that's how they scored both of their power play goals. Simple shots from distance with a net-front tip/screen.
Voracek gets a piece of a wicked shot by Laine and the Blue Jackets have their first power play goal of the season! #NHLGlobalSeries pic.twitter.com/NCnvEk1gLH
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 4, 2022
Boone Jenner!
— NHL Suomi (@NHL_fi) November 5, 2022
(@ViaplayUrheilu)#NHLGlobalSeries pic.twitter.com/jwM0bbgK5T
On the one hand, this back-to-basics approach is much less dangerous than the preferred seam pass (think Gaudreau to Laine across the slot). But on the other, it's at least a way to generate confidence. Talk about an incongruity - getting 'off the schneid' by intentionally eschewing the type of play that results in a higher percentage of goals. Go figure.
When the club was mired in an 0-for-23 slump, it was easy to point the finger at incorrect personnel or even the coaching. But the truth is, much of the failings should rest solely on the players. The Athletic's Aaron Portzline summarized this succinctly with this tweet, which I endorse.
It's f**king ridiculous. Here's the thing I learned a long time ago, though. The power play is more about work and less about skill than you realize, and the penalty kill is more about skill that I'd ever imagined.
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) November 8, 2022
CBJ entries stink. Their retrievals are dogs*t. Work harder. https://t.co/JxPmV3AXlE
The reason the Blue Jackets power play has struggled has been a lot of one-man play on the entry, and a general lack of hardness when the penalty kill stiffens. Priority number one on the power play is retrieving pucks. Priority two is setting up a quality scoring opportunity. But you can't get to #2 without first accomplishing #1. Get back to basics, and don't let good (a shot) be the enemy of great (a cross-ice pass that leads to a shot). Baby steps.
The last point worth mentioning is that momentum breeds momentum. The players that play on the power play are skilled, highly gifted individuals. When the power play is generating goals, it translates to the next power play, and naturally to their game at 5v5. The inverse is true, too, and I think it's a big part of the reason why the team has struggled in general.
The good news is that statistically speaking, it's hard to go anywhere but up in the power play rankings and in the standings. The bad news is that the club has no momentum, and thus, no confidence. And in order to find some momentum/confidence, they'll need to first, paradoxically, find some momentum/confidence.
