Since July 1, the Blue Jackets have been able to sign Kent Johnson to a contract extension that kicks for the 2024-25 season. What's the hold up then? He's a core piece of the future coming off of an impressive rookie season where he posted 16 goals and 40 points in 79 games.
One of the reasons the Blue Jackets may be hesitant to dole out a long-term extension to Johnson is because of the small sample size, as he's played just 88 games and has another season to play before he's a restricted free agent.
Another reason is that no forward in this year's rookie class had signed a second contract until Mattias Maccelli and the Arizona Coyotes agreed on a three-year, $3.425M AAV deal. Therefore, it's tough for both parties to have a comparable on which to base their negotiations. It's also important to note that Maccelli was an RFA this offseason and not next, like Johnson and many of the players listed below.
Let's look at which forwards will be comparables for Kent Johnson's next contract.
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (RFA: 2024)
After winning the 2023 Calder Trophy as the league's top rookie, Beniers will likely set the bar for this class of players. But, will he sign a short-term or long-term deal? The answer to that question will give the Blue Jackets a better idea of what Johnson's contract will look like. So far Beniers, the No. 2 pick in 2021, has lived up to his draft status.
Dawson Mercer, RW, C, New Jersey Devils (RFA: 2024)
Of all the players on this list, nobody scored more goals this season than Mercer did with 27. The Devils selected Mercer 18th overall in 2020, and he is a promising piece of a Devils core that should dominate the Metropolitan Division for at least the next five years. Since Johnson has played almost exclusively on the wing so far, Mercer is probably a better comparable than Beniers, but unlike Johnson, Mercer has two full seasons of data up to this point.
Lucas Raymond, RW, Detroit Red Wings (RFA: 2024)
Raymond is the only other forward in this class besides Mercer and Beniers that scored more points than Johnson did this season, posting 17 goals and 45 points in 74 games. Raymond's stats took a dip this season after posting 23 goals and 57 points in 82 games as a rookie, so maybe that will affect his negotiations. Like Mercer, he has two seasons of data since being the No. 4 pick in 2020.
Seth Jarvis, RW, Carolina Hurricanes (RFA: 2024)
Jarvis posted 14 goals and 39 points in 82 games this year after recording 17 goals and 40 points in 68 games as a rookie. So like Raymond, his numbers took a dip in his second year.
Anton Lundell, C, Florida Panthers (RFA: 2024)
Like Jarvis and Raymond, Lundell also saw a dip in production in year two, following his rookie campaign of 18-26--44 in 65 games with 12-21--33 in 73 games.
Cole Perfetti, LW, C, Winnipeg Jets (RFA: 2024)
After posting seven points in 18 games in 2021-22, Perfetti played 51 games in 2022-23 and posted eight goals and 30 points.
| Player | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matty Beniers | 90 | 27 | 39 | 66 |
| Dawson Mercer | 164 | 44 | 54 | 98 |
| Lucas Raymond | 156 | 40 | 62 | 102 |
| Kent Johnson | 88 | 16 | 27 | 43 |
| Seth Jarvis | 150 | 31 | 48 | 79 |
| Anton Lundell | 138 | 30 | 47 | 77 |
| Cole Perfetti | 69 | 10 | 27 | 37 |
In terms of sample size, Johnson is closest to Beniers and Perfetti to this point. However, regarding points/game rates, he's closest to Jarvis, Lundell, Perfetti, and Raymond.
Whether or not any of the players above sign this summer may have an impact on Johnson's negotiations with the Blue Jackets, or it may not. Only time will tell.
Regardless of a contract extension for 2024-25 or lack thereof, the Blue Jackets need Johnson to take a leap in year two if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
