Is Jack Roslovic a lock to make the opening night roster?
The answer to that may not be as obvious as it once seemed.
Roslovic, 26, is entering the final year of a two-year contract worth $4 million per season. He's coming off a season in which he scored 11 goals and added 33 assists in a total of 77 games. On an island, those numbers are somewhat pedestrian — at closer glance, though, there is more missing than meets the eye.
Last season was supposed to be the long-awaited Roslovic breakout year. Instead, he halved his goal total (22) from the 2021-22 season, despite just four fewer games played. But take into consideration that he averaged more than two minutes on ice more last season, and Roslovic actually played more minutes in 2022-23 than he did in year one in Columbus.
His play is also wildly inconsistent: he had three multi-goal games last season, and the Blue Jackets did win all three games. But those were the only games Columbus won in 2022-23 when Roslovic scored. He scored one goal each in five games (the team went 0-4-1 in those games) and did not score in the other 69 games. Boom or bust isn't worth it when the boom happens as infrequently as it does for Roslovic.
It's one thing to be an inconsistent scorer, but it's another thing to be a liability on defense — and the data shows Roslovic is just that. Over the last three seasons, nearly every advanced metric says that Roslovic can't be trusted when the Blue Jackets aren’t in possession the puck. Love them or hate them, advanced metrics (such as the one below) certainly have merit when they're so consistent.
Jack Roslovic, Evolving-Hockey
Despite the holes and the gaps, Roslovic would probably have a place on most teams that just finished 31st in a league with 32 teams.
But the Blue Jackets are no ordinary 31st-out-of-32 team. They drafted teenage sensation Adam Fantilli, who plays the same position as Roslovic. Alexandre Texier is back in the fold, another forward who would compete for minutes against Roslovic. Dmitry Voronkov is in Columbus after his time in the KHL. Patrik Laine is making strides at playing up the middle and that seems like it will happen sooner rather than later.
These are all things that are good for the Blue Jackets — and probably not good for Roslovic, who in part requested a trade from the Winnipeg Jets in 2021 because he wasn't able to play the center position. This is a team on the rise with a lot of young talent, and Rosy's lack of improvement could be squeezing him out of a roster spot on the team he was raised cheering for.
When asked about Roslovic's performance in Thursday's preseason loss to the Washington Capitals — a lineup that consisted primarily of guys fighting for a roster spot, which in itself is a bit of a tell — head coach Pascal Vincent didn't quite give a ringing endorsement of the Columbus native.
"If a coach comes here and he tells you he saw everything he's lying to you," said Vincent. "Sometimes for guys like him (Roslovic) we need to look at the game shift-by-shift to have a real solid evaluation."
"My overall evaluation is, first period, we didn't like our team — and he was part of it, and from there, we picked it up."
The last roster of the preseason is locked!
— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) October 6, 2023
https://t.co/7jCPV3I1tL pic.twitter.com/c0y1BljEVv
It's a post that leaves questions all over the place: Why isn't Roslovic part of that? We know there isn't an injury. If Vincent needed to see more, wouldn't he play him? If he were deciding between two players, wouldn't both be in the lineup? Which forward, if all remain healthy, could set themselves far enough back in their final game to lose a spot?
Opening night is Thursday. Whether or not Roslovic makes it remains to be seen — but don't be shocked is he's sitting in the press box when the puck drops.
Or with the Blue Jackets at all.
