With two goals last night against the Sharks, Artemi Panarin became the first Blue Jacket this season to score 20 goals.
He’s been the Jackets' most consistent goal scorer, but the way he scores his goals has been anything but consistent. He doesn’t have that one spot on the ice he likes to shoot from or that one "go-to" move. He's just...good.
Take a look at his shot map at 5-on-5; Panarin is skewed to the left side, as he's a left winger, but he gets shots from every area of the ice.
Visual from HockeyViz
That unpredictability is what makes Panarin special when he carries the puck over the blue line – you never know where he’s going to go. One thing is for certain: he's going to look to get to the middle of the ice. Fifteen of Panarin's 20 goals have been scored from the middle. Even if you know where he’s going, he has the skill level to make you look silly.
In all situations, Panarin has taken 381 shots attempts per Natural Stat Trick. Of those 381, 199 (52.2%) would be considered scoring chances or medium-danger chances and 50 (13.1%) of them are high-danger chances. The percentages are important here; War on Ice (back when the site was in operation) found that 24% of shots in the NHL come from the high-danger area, 32% come from medium danger and 44% come from low danger.
Panarin takes more shots than average from those medium-danger areas because his shot is so good and so accurate, and he can beat goalies from distance.
Bread from Jones to tie the game up. Redemption for the Russian forward.#CBJ pic.twitter.com/yEdfcNyxWf
— 1st Ohio Battery (@1stOhioBattery) December 22, 2017
We know the majority of goals are scored from the high-danger areas of the ice. The goalies right now are so good that you need to be in close to score.
Panarin is no exception. I re-watched all of his goals and found that 11 of them were high danger chances. It goes to show that even players as skilled as Panarin have to get quality chances to score on a regular basis.
One area where hockey analytics is making significant strides is in passing data. Ryan Stimpson and his team of volunteers have done a terrific job at tracking passes and making that data available for the public. NHL Numbers had a great article earlier this year looking at that data and how certain pass types lead to goals. The article noted that "Royal Road" passes that lead to a shot on goal had the highest shooting percentage at 27.8%. If you can successfully complete a Royal Road pass and get a shot, it’s got a good chance of going in.
The Blue Jackets and Panarin are no exception to this; four of Panarin’s goals have been from Royal Road passes.
Panarin challahs for the puck and bakes a beauty, but let's also toast that Bjorkstrand pass. #CBJ pic.twitter.com/kIfwPexXoS
— 1st Ohio Battery (@1stOhioBattery) November 12, 2017
The second best way to score? Behind the net passes, which produce goals 12.41% of the time. Panarin has scored three goals from behind the net passes.
Breadman scoreth. #CBJ pic.twitter.com/8NDnoNpVDI
— 1st Ohio Battery (@1stOhioBattery) November 7, 2017
The key with these is to get the goalie moving. If the goalie is in position, he’s going to stop the puck. What Panarin does so well is get to those spots where the goalie has to move. He's under constant surveillance when he's on the ice, but somehow, he’s able to find those soft spots in coverage and make teams pay.
Panarin can score in so many different ways with so many different shot types and locations – it's what makes him a special player. His shot is elite, and he has the awareness and smarts to get himself to the front of net. He has been the Jackets' best goal scorer this season, and that will need to continue as they march towards the playoffs.
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