Is this "awards week" here at 1st Ohio Battery? Seems so.
We had Sam Blazer write about Artemi Panarin’s Hart candidacy and Dan Dukart write about how Seth Jones stacks up against other elite defensemen. Today, I'm going to cover the Vezina Trophy and make the argument that Sergei Bobrovsky should not only be in the Vezina conversation, but should win the award.
In the PHWA mid-season awards, Bobrovsky wasn't even a top-three finalist for the Vezina. The writers voted Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck and Pekka Rinne as the three best goalies. Now, writers don't vote on this award (NHL general managers do) but at the time these weren't bad selections. Bobrovsky has had a strong second half and with the exception of Rinne, this should once again be Bobrovsky’s award to lose.
Among starting goalies (40+ games played) Rinne leads the league in save percentage at .929; Bobrovsky is seventh at .920. Rinne also has the edge in 5-on-5 save percentage, where he once again leads all starting goalies at .939. Bobrovsky sits third at .933. In high-danger situations, Bobrovsky and Rinne are 1-2 in the league with Bob having the slight edge: .858 to 855. When you put everything together, Bobrovsky has saved the Blue Jackets 27 goals more than the average goalie, and Rinne has saved the Predators 16.
Total goals saved above average
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) March 15, 2018
Bob is up to 27 goals saved above average. Rinne's in second -- with only 16. #Bob4Vezina pic.twitter.com/tby6yeP8qS
Bobrovsky has saved so many more goals than Rinne, despite Rinne having the better save percentage because Rinne plays in front of a stronger defensive unit. The Jackets' defense is not bad, mind you; with Seth Jones and Zach Werenski, they have one of the best pairs in the league. But, with PK Subban, Romi Josi, Mattias Ekholm, and Ryan Ellis, Nashville has two pairs that rival the Jones–Werenski pair. As a result, Rinne doesn’t face near the number of shots that Bobrovsky does.
Bobrovsky has played in five more games than Rinne and has faced 193 more shots – that’s a significant difference.
As Micah Blake McCurdy showed in the following tweet, a lot of those shots Bobrovsky faces are high-danger chances.
I'm not unsympathetic to the many people suggesting Rinne get the Vzina but also: Bobrovsky. pic.twitter.com/jGv11xLJ9w
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) March 12, 2018
Nashville does a better job than Columbus at keeping shots to the outside. It’s not hard to imagine where the Blue Jackets would be if Bobrovsky wasn’t leading the league in high-danger save percentage. They would most certainly not be in the middle of a playoff race.
You look at some of the saves Bobrovsky has made this season, a couple where he dropped his stick, the game saver in Detroit, even just in last night’s game he made a couple big stops and was the difference in what was basically a one-goal game.
Early in the first period, Bobrovsky made this save as well. All in a days work for him.#CBJ pic.twitter.com/u9ijyyh2TV
— 1st Ohio Battery (@1stOhioBattery) March 15, 2018
As with many awards, we don’t tend to see a lot of repeat winners. There hasn’t been a repeat Vezina winner since Martin Brodeur won in 2006-07 and 2007-08. The GMs might look at Rinne’s season, look at his career and feel “he’s due” for the Vezina. Rinne has had an incredible season, but Bobrovsky’s has been just that much better and that much more important to his team, which is why he should be picking up his third Vezina Trophy this summer.
Data via Corsica.Hockey
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