With the Blue Jackets officially clinching a playoff berth last night, it’s time to turn our attention to possible opponents.
There is only one game remaining in the regular season, but the Jackets first round match-up is far from decided. There are still a number of possibilities, some more favorable than others.
The Jackets' probable playoff opponents from least likely to most likely are Washington, Philadelphia, New Jersey, and Pittsburgh.
TSN.ca's Travis Yost has written a lot about head-to-head matchups, and how those can be an indicator of future playoff success. In a piece from March, Yost mentions the Jackets as a team to watch out for in the playoffs. The Jackets have out-chanced or out-scored many of the potential teams they might play in the first round.
Last year, Yost looked at every playoff matchup going back to 2007-08 to determine what metrics were the best indicators of playoff success. He found that the team with the superior Corsi and superior GF% won 72.8% of the time. He also found that teams with the superior Corsi and superior head-to-head goals won the series 70.7% of the time.
With just a couple games left in the season, the Jackets have a 51.51% Corsi and a 53.33% goals for% at 5-on-5, the eighth and seventh highest totals in the league. Right away, this gives them an edge over many teams entering a playoff series.
As far as head-to-head stats go, here is how the Jackets have fared against each of those four potential playoff teams:
Washington
Record: 1-3-0
Goal Differential: 0
Shot Differential: +55
Corsi (5-on-5): 57.29%
Philadelphia
Record: 2-1-1
Goal Differential: 0
Shot Differential: +15
Corsi (5-on-5): 55.32%
New Jersey
Record: 3-1-0
Goal Differential: +5
Shot Differential: +12
Corsi (5-on-5): 47.07%
Pittsburgh
Record: 0-1-3
Goal Differential: -4
Shot Differential: -12
Corsi (5-on-5): 44.80%
I know a lot of people want to play the Penguins in Round 1, but let’s maybe hold off on that until the second round. These teams have played some thrilling games, with three games needing extra time, but don’t let that fool you into thinking the Jackets played well. Pittsburgh has owned the Jackets in their head-to-head matchups, holding the Jackets to a lousy 44.8% Corsi. Only the Bruins have played the Jackets tougher this season, in three games Boston has put up a 60.63% Corsi against Columbus.
Pittsburgh is one of the few teams that have better underlying stats than the Jackets. Pittsburgh's GF% this season is their one weakness; at 5-on-5, they only have a 47.31% goals for percentage but let's not kid ourselves. The Penguins can score.
I have gone on record saying I would like the Jackets to face the Capitals and the numbers back this up. Sure, the Jackets record is not good against Washington but in just four games, the Jackets have outshot the Capitals by 55. That’s more than 13 shots a game. The Jackets averaged 36.5 shots a game against the Capitals, and they were all close games so it’s as if score effects were playing a major part. The Jackets' 57.29% Corsi against the Caps is their best against any opponent this season. On top of this, they also demolished the Capitals on trade deadline day.
The talk surrounding the Capitals is how maybe this is their year since they have no pressure on them, but I think people are failing to see that is a significantly weaker team than in years past. They are a poor possession team that doesn't generate many high danger scoring chances. They rely on a top shooting percentage, and we have seen time and time again that can dry up in the playoffs.
If the Jackets miss the Capitals, Philadelphia wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize. The storylines for this series would be great with Sergei Bobrovsky and Jakub Voracek. The Jackets have played the Flyers well this year, the 55.32% Corsi is the seventh highest for the Jackets against an opponent this season. The Flyers are an average possession team, and the Jackets an above average one. The Flyers have lots of firepower but the Jackets control the puck very well and keep it out of the hands of their game-breakers. The other caveat here is that if these two teams were to meet, it would be as the #2 and #3 seeds in the Metro.
New Jersey has a little bit of both Pittsburgh and Washington in them, as they have played the Jackets tough like the Penguins, but like Washington they aren’t necessarily a great team. Their Corsi and GF% are both under 50%, but they are a fast team and generate a ton of high danger chances, which could be a problem.
If the Jackets are able to get the second seed in the Metro, Philadelphia would be the ideal opponent. If they have to play on the road it would be beneficial to be the first Wild Card and take on Washington. Pittsburgh and New Jersey have played well against the Jackets this season and would not be a favorable first-round opponent.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
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