The Washington Capitals are good.
Racking up 105 points and winning the Metropolitan Division is no small feat. Led by perhaps the best goal scorer in NHL history in Alexander Ovechkin, this is not a team to take lightly. The Capitals are a solid team but there is a reason the Blue Jackets wanted to play them and not the Penguins. This is a flawed team.
Despite their offensive superstars, the Capitals haven’t been an offensive juggernaut, at least not at 5-on-5. The Blue Jackets' issues scoring have been well-documented – at 5-on-5 they scored 169 goals, and the Capitals scored 170.
The goal totals are nearly identical, but these two teams could not be more different.
At 5-on-5 the Capitals have a 47.96% Corsi, 24th in the league, sandwiched between Arizona and Buffalo, two teams at the bottom of the league. The Blue Jackets are at 51.49%, ninth in the league, surrounded by Winnipeg and Nashville, two teams with Stanley Cup aspirations. Right away, we can identify this is a massive advantage for the Blue Jackets.
The best way to handle a superstar like Ovechkin is to keep the puck away from him and force him to play defense, and the Blue Jackets can do that.
The Blue Jackets are a shot volume team. They led the league with 2270 shots at 5-on-5, 39 more than the Penguins in second place and 421 more than the 30th place Capitals. The Blue Jackets like to shoot the puck, and that's going to make life very difficult on either Braden Holtby or Philipp Grubauer.
We saw this type of shot discrepancy in the four match-ups between these teams; in those four games, the Blue Jackets averaged 36.5 shots per game and allowed just 22.75. If it wasn’t for a couple fantastic performances from Holtby (and a couple poor ones from Sergei Bobrovsky), Columbus could have easily swept the season series.
What’s fascinating with Washington is that this is what they want to do. Alison Lukan of The Athletic wrote about the Capitals strategy prior to the final regular season meeting between these teams: The Capitals wait for the perfect shot, and if that shot isn’t there, they won’t take it. The Capitals were 30th in total shots for, but ranked 20th in high-danger chances, so there is some merit to this. They still gave up a ton of high-danger chances, and ended the regular season with the worst high-danger scoring chance percentage in the league at 45.12%.
The Blue Jackets were much better at getting high-danger chances (50.33%). They create a lot of high-danger chances but they give up a lot, as well. They need to be careful not to give up too many odd-man rushes, as Washington will be looking for those opportunities to counter.
Where Washington has been extremely successful this season has been converting its shots into goals. They were one of just three teams (Tampa and Toronto the others) to shoot over 9.0% at 5-on-5. The Capitals converted on the shots they did take, but it didn’t lead to near as many goals as those other two teams as Washington, again, didn’t take many shots.
Waiting for the perfect shot plays right into the Blue Jackets' hands.
Among goalies that played at least 1000 minutes, Bobrovsky is fifth in high-danger save percentage at 85.46%. While he's still good at stopping low and medium-danger shots, he doesn’t rank nearly as well (13th and 17th, respectively). If Washington wants to wait for the perfect shot, the advantage goes to Bobrovsky.
Speaking of goalies, the Capitals have a good one – but it may not be who you expect. Philipp Grubauer in the fourth-ranked goaltender in high-danger save percentage and second-best in low-danger save percentage. He isn’t nearly as strong at stopping medium danger shots, coming in at 20th overall among NHL starters.
When you combine all these factors you can understand why a projection site like Moneypuck.com has the Blue Jackets as a 60% favorite in this series.
Washington does, however, hold a significant edge in special teams. Their power play is incredible and the Blue Jackets penalty kill has been a sore spot all season long. The Blue Jackets need to keep the game at 5-on-5 which is their strength with a balanced lineup and deep defense. If they can stay out of the box in this series, they will be just fine.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
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