The 1st Ohio Battery summer prospect series continues with our #13 best prospect in the Blue Jackets organization, center Kevin Stenlund.
Reason for Ranking
Stenlund is a former second round pick, taken with the 58th overall pick in the 2015 draft. The big-bodied Swedish center has played in 151 games in the SHL, Sweden's top professional league, over the past four seasons. At age 21, he's a mature, well-rounded player with an NHL shot and frame (6-foot-4, 210 lbs).
In terms of our internal rankings, we were all in agreement of Stenlund's standing in the organization's prospect pool. Paul and I both had him ranked at 13, while Sam had him 12th overall.
NHL Projection
There's reason to be optimistic about Stenlund's ability to play in the NHL. Emmanuel Perry, creator of hockey analytics site Corsica, recently compiled his NHLe ratings, in which he attempts to compare points in leagues around the world to the NHL (note: other factors, such as age and linemates are not included). Perry's findings indicate that SHL points are worth the second most of any active league (behind the KHL), with one SHL point is worth 0.6375 NHL points (note: Rob Vollman, who originated the concept, found the SHL to have a translation factor of 0.58). Jeremy Crowe wrote a guest-post for us on this topic (which you should read) and found using Perry's data that Stenlund could have been expected to score 24 points over an 82 game NHL schedule based on his 2017-18 season.
Two years ago, Stenlund posted 13 goals and seven assists in 48 games, but a season ago saw his goal total drop to just seven. Still, with 15 assists, he set career high's in assists and points. In seven games with the Cleveland Monsters after his season at HV71, he had two assists. This year, he'll come to NHL training camp as a long-shot to make the Blue Jackets, but will almost certainly be playing full time with the Monsters, and should see top-six minutes and have an opportunity to contribute on the power play. He could find himself in the NHL in a year or two if he performs well at the AHL level.
I think he eventually gets to the NHL as a bottom-six center through his size, a strong checking game, and enough offensive upside to keep him around.
Best Case Scenario
His ceiling is second line NHL center. If he finds a scoring touch in Cleveland and can show that he can drive play with higher-end players, it could happen. This year could go a long way in determining what kind of player he'll be in North America.
Strengths and Weaknesses
At 6-foot-4, 210, he's got the size that teams covet. He has a great shot, nice hands, good offensive instincts. This past season, he won nearly 55% of his face-offs, which is a welcome addition to this organization. He thinks the game well and shouldn't have much problem adjusting to the defensive responsibilities in North America.
He isn't a speedster and doesn't exhibit great acceleration. It could take him some time to acclimate to the North American style of play, but given that he's been playing against men professionally for four years, it's not a major concern.
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