The Chase is your morning report on where the Blue Jackets stand in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs race. What happened, what's next, and who to cheer for.
The Columbus Blue Jackets were off Thursday night, but the rest of the Eastern Conference was in action and with five of the top six teams in the Metropolitan and Atlantic Divisions getting wins, the playoff picture is a lot less hazy today.
Start with the Washington Capitals, who edged Montreal, 2-1 in the District. With the win, the Caps locked down the Metro crown for the fourth straight year and did the Blue Jackets a solid, dealing a serious blow to the Habs' chances to make the postseason (more on that in a bit).
Pittsburgh took care of Detroit, 4-1, and in the process, secured a playoff berth for an NHL-best 13th season in a row. We're absolutely going to point out that it took the Pens 81 games to secure that spot, however.
Finally, Carolina became the seventh team in the Eastern Conference to secure a playoff spot with a win against the lowly New Jersey Devils. This will be the Hurricanes first trip to the postseason in a decade. To be determined: whether the Canes finish in the WC1 or WC2 spot. Again, more on that in a bit.
Here's where we stand on Friday, April 5. Buckle up.
| GP | W | L | OT | PTS | ROW | STRK | L10 | GL | Make Playoffs [#] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| METROPOLITAN | ||||||||||
| (x) WASHINGTON CAPITALS | 81 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 104 | 44 | W1 | 6–3–1 | NYI | 100% (NC) |
| (x) NY ISLANDERS | 81 | 47 | 27 | 7 | 101 | 42 | W1 | 6–4–0 | @WSH | 100% (NC) |
| (x) PITTSBURGH PENGUINS | 81 | 44 | 26 | 11 | 99 | 42 | W1 | 5–3–2 | NYR | 100% (+1.16) |
| ATLANTIC | ||||||||||
| (p) TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING | 81 | 61 | 16 | 4 | 126 | 55 | W1 | 7–3–0 | @BOS | 100% (NC) |
| (x) BOSTON BRUINS | 81 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 107 | 47 | W2 | 7–3–0 | TBL | 100% (NC) |
| (x) TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS | 81 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 99 | 46 | L2 | 3–5–2 | @MTL | 100% (NC) |
| WILD CARD | ||||||||||
| (x) CAROLINA HURRICANES | 81 | 45 | 29 | 7 | 97 | 43 | W2 | 6–4–0 | @PHI | 100% (+12.39) |
| COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS | 80 | 45 | 31 | 4 | 94 | 44 | L1 | 6–3–1 | @NYR, @OTT | 87.53% (+18.91) |
| MONTREAL CANADIENS | 81 | 43 | 30 | 8 | 94 | 41 | L1 | 6–3–1 | TOR | 12.47% (-32.47) |
p - Clinched President's Trophy; x - Clinched Playoff Spot
Three teams are in the mix for the final two wild card spots in the Eastern Conference: the Hurricanes, the Jackets and the Canadiens. First, a look at the three teams' remaining schedule:
CAROLINA: @ PHI (37–36–8, 82p) Saturday, 7 p.m.
COLUMBUS: @ NYR (31–36–13, 75p) Friday, 7 p.m. and @ OTT (29–46–6, 64p) Saturday, 7 p.m.
MONTREAL: vs. TOR (46–28–7, 99p) Saturday, 7 p.m.
Carolina gets a mediocre Flyers team to end the season and Columbus gets a middling Rangers club and the worst-in-the-league Senators, but it's worth pointing out that the Maple Leafs already know they're facing Boston in the playoffs and could rest stars and key players for their game in Montreal.
Here's how it can play out for the Jackets, who can only finish as high as WC1 at this point, but do have a game in hand on both Carolina and Montreal and just as importantly, a lead in ROW (regulation or overtime wins), the first tie-breaker if teams tie in points, over each team.
The Blue Jackets can finish in the first wild card if…
Columbus wins their final two games in any fashion and Carolina loses in any fashion in Philadelphia. Why? The Jackets would a 46-43 edge in ROW should Carolina lose in overtime, grabbing a point and tying the CBJ at 98 points.
–OR–
Columbus gets three points (a regulation win and an overtime loss) out of their final two games and Carolina loses in regulation to the Flyers. Why? The two teams will finish tied with 97 points, but Columbus will have the ROW edge at 45-43.
The Blue Jackets can finish in the second wild card spot if…
Columbus earns two points in its final two games. One win, two overtime losses—whatever. Any combination of two points works. Why? The best the Canadiens can do is match the Blue Jackets at 96 points with a win in their final game in this scenario. Again, the Jackets have the ROW edge.
—OR—
Columbus earns one point from an overtime loss in its final two games and Montreal loses their last game to Toronto in any fashion. Why? The best Montreal could do here is tie the Jackets with 95 points. The Blue Jackets own the ROW tiebreaker if this plays out, 44-41.
–OR—
Columbus goes winless in its final two and Montreal loses to Toronto in regulation. Why? The teams finish tied with 94 points and Columbus uses its 44-41 ROW advantage to get in.
The Blue Jackets will miss the playoffs if…
Columbus gets one point or fewer in its final two games and Montreal beats Toronto. Why? Montreal will finish with 96 points to Columbus' 95 or 94 in this scenario. And we'll curse this ending forever.
Like we said, buckle up.
This means that if the Jackets do make the playoffs – and Money Puck's model gives them an 87.53% chance of getting in at this point – they will face Tampa Bay, winners of the Atlantic Division or Washington, tops in the Metropolitan Division.
If they land in WC2, they're getting Tampa Bay, which means death. The Lightning's 124 points are currently the fifth-most in NHL history and they have spanked the Blue Jackets this season. The Jackets went 0–3 against the Bolts, outscored 17-3 in three blowouts: 8-2, 4-0, and 5-1. Yep, ugly.
If they can jump up into WC1, they'll face Washington, and who knows in that series. Columbus went 3–1 against the Caps in the regular season, handling them the last time they met, and gave them a good scare in the Stanley Cup Playoffs last year.
Tonight's Game(s) of Interest
| Home | Away | Who to Cheer for |
|---|---|---|
| NY RANGERS (31–36–13, 75p) | COLUMBUS (45–31–4, 94p) | The boys in white. |
There's just one game that matters in the NHL tonight and that game sees the Blue Jackets in Madison Square Garden to face the New York Rangers (7 p.m. FS-O) in the Rangers' home finale.
We're not going to lie to you and say the Rangers, who sit 12th in the Eastern Conference with 75 points, are good, and the Blue Jackets are 2–0–1 against New York this season, but two of those games were one-goal affairs and let's face it, there are no gimme games in the NHL.
Counterpoint! The Rangers are coming off a pair of losses to two of the league's worst teams, losing 4-2 to New Jersey Monday and 4-1 at home to Ottawa Wednesday.
If the Jackets can earn two points in the Garden, they will lock up the second wild card, regardless of what Montreal does Saturday, and with a chance to jump into the first wild card depending on how things break that night.
If the Blue Jackets lose in regulation tonight, they'll head to Ottawa with just the second wild card spot still in play and needing a win to secure that.
So, yeah, a win tonight would be huge.
Blue Jackets Playoff Odds
| Make It In | 2nd Rnd | Conf. Finals | SC Finals | Win SC | Win Metro | 2nd Metro | 3rd Metro | WC1 | WC2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
87.53% +18.91 |
33.5% +4.8 |
16.7% +2.1 |
7.8% +0.9 |
3.5% +0.3 |
0% NC |
0% NC |
0% -2.4 |
17.9% -7.2 |
69.6% +27.7 |
Odds courtesy of MoneyPuck.com
With nearly a 90% chance to make the postseason according to Money Puck's model, you have to like where things are headed if you're a Blue Jacket fan. Carolina's win over the Devils Thursday night drove down the Jackets odds to get into the first wild card spot, but at 18.8%, WC1 is definitely still in play.
Today's stress ball: Phil Kessel winning fans a free Big Mac might be the most Phil Kessel thing ever.
