The John Tortorella era is over, but that doesn't mean the data from his time in Columbus isn't important.
Tortorella's Blue Jackets were stout defensively. They were 13th in the NHL in goals allowed per game, averaging 2.79. Where they struggled, however, was the other side of the ice. Tortorella-coached Blue Jackets teams also scored 2.79 goals per game, which ranked 21st in the NHL for that time period.
In Brad Larsen's first year, he's flipped the script on its head. The Blue Jackets are scoring in bunches, averaging 3.13 goals per game. Unfortunately, the defensive numbers are where it gets messy. They're allowing an alarming 3.61 goals per game, which is third-worst in the NHL. Only Arizona (3.67) and Montreal (3.98) allow more.
It's not as if Larsen is telling his players not to play defense, but he did make clear that he is more offensively-minded than his predecessor. When you combine that with the makeup of the Blue Jackets roster, you get the results that have the Blue Jackets sitting at 23-23-1 through 47 games.
The Blue Jackets have one of the youngest teams in the NHL, and nowhere is that more prominent than the blue line. Of the ten defensemen to play a game for the Blue Jackets this season, none are older than 28. Scott Harrington is the elder statesman at 28 years and 343 days.
It's true that players have excelled at a young age. But when you're not Cale Makar or Adam Fox, experience matters on the blue line and the Blue Jackets have almost none of it. Werenski has played 380 NHL games. Harrington, who is currently in the AHL, has played 210. Other than those two, the Blue Jackets are very, very inexperienced.
| NAME | AGE | NHL GP |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski | 24 | 380 |
| Scott Harrington | 28 | 210 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 26 | 169 |
| Dean Kukan | 28 | 127 |
| Adam Boqvist | 21 | 110 |
| Jake Bean | 23 | 85 |
| Andrew Peeke | 23 | 80 |
| Gabriel Carlsson | 25 | 55 |
| Gavin Bayreuther | 27 | 54 |
| Jake Christiansen | 22 | 3 |
Referring to the table above, we can see that there are only three defensemen in the Blue Jackets organization who have over two seasons of NHL experience: Werenski, Harrington, and Gavrikov. There are three who have in between one and two seasons of NHL experience: Bean, Boqvist, and Kukan. Then, there are four who have less than a season of NHL experience: Peeke, Carlsson, Bayreuther, and Christiansen.
The good news is that they're gaining experience with each game this season. While they might not be playing particularly well as a unit, they'll become stronger as a group over time.
It feels as if a Tortorella team was likely to win a game 2-1, while a Larsen team is more likely to win 5-4. The Blue Jackets are fun this season, but it's a roller coaster from start to finish due to their struggles in the defensive zone.
Of course, defensemen make up just 40% of the skaters on the ice at most times in a game. The Blue Jackets' forwards aren't defensively-minded as a group, and that puts stress on their inexperienced blue line.
According to The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn's model, Eric Robinson is the Blue Jackets' only forward who has a positive 5-on-5 on-ice impact at 0.1. The stat is based on goals and expected goals, and it's measured in goals above average. The Blue Jackets forwards who find themselves in the 10th percentile or worse when it comes to 5-on-5 on-ice impact include Patrik Laine (-9.9), Yegor Chinakhov (-9.1) Boone Jenner (-8.5), Gustav Nyquist (-8.3), Max Domi (-5.5), Alexandre Texier (-5.3), and Jack Roslovic (-3.9).
That's not exactly a recipe for success, and the Blue Jackets will have to figure out team defense down the road. For now, they're playing .500 hockey, and every game figures to be exciting. Maybe nerve-wracking is a better word.
