After a season where he missed the final 69 games due to a separated shoulder and torn labrum, Zach Werenski's return is much needed one for the Blue Jackets.
If the Blue Jackets want to make the playoffs or at least compete for a playoff spot, they'll need Werenski available.
Here are three questions regarding Zach Werenski heading into the 2023-24 season:
How many games will he play this season?
The answer to this question will go a long way in determining where the Blue Jackets finish in the standings by year's end. Werenski hasn't played a full season since 2018-19 and since then, he's missed 111 of the team's 290 regular season contests. In his first three seasons in the league, he missed just nine games, and the injury he suffered this season was a fluke, so hopefully for his sake, and for the Blue Jackets, he receives better injury luck this season. Obviously, everyone would prefer for him to play 82 games this season but if he plays in at least 70 games, that's a win.
How much will his return help the Blue Jackets?
The simple answer is that the Blue Jackets will not make the playoffs without a mostly healthy Zach Werenski. That applies to the rest of the roster, too, but Werenski is an elite defenseman on a team that doesn't have as much star power as most of their divisional opponents. So, if they want to compete for a playoff spot in a highly competitive division, the Blue Jackets will need their best players to play. Think about the other teams in the Metropolitan Division. The Rangers have Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin, Igor Shesterkin, Mika Zibanejad, and Chris Kreider. The Islanders have Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson, and Brock Nelson. The Devils have Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Dawson Mercer, Dougie Hamilton, and Luke Hughes. The Hurricanes have Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin, and Brent Burns. The Penguins have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel, and the Capitals have Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson. While the Blue Jackets' roster might not stack up on paper with the rest of the teams in the Metro, if they, especially Werenski, can stay relatively healthy, they should be able to compete on a nightly basis.
#CBJ Werenski (1) goal pic.twitter.com/Y9TFuxJO0o
— Coby Maeir (@CobyMaeir) October 19, 2022
What is Werenski's offensive ceiling?
Werenski has scored 79-166--245 in 416 NHL regular season games. Over an 82-game pace, that computes to approximately 15-32--47. Not near the high-end of points by defensemen, but still a very solid number. What's more important the points themselves are the goals. Only nine defensemen scored 15 or more this season and of the 46 15-goal seasons by a defenseman since Werenski entered the league in 2016-17, he holds two of them, including a 20-goal campaign in 2019-20, one of only eight 20-goal seasons by a defenseman since 2016-17. Among defensemen in that time period with at least 10 games played, only five blue-liners have more goals/game than Werenski's 0.19 mark. So, to answer the original question, there's no doubt he could score 18-25 goals a year while tallying a fair share of assists. His career-best 47 points came in his rookie season, but with more time on the power play and better injury luck, there's no reason he couldn't approach the 70-point mark. Werenski's ceiling, if he's not there already, is one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL.
