In 2021-22, Johnny Gaudreau played on arguably the best line in the NHL.
His Calgary Flames trio included him, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm. All three have moved on to new homes, and Gaudreau has been looking to recapture the game that allowed him to post a career-best in goals, 40, assists, 75, and points, 115.
In his two seasons in Columbus, Gaudreau has posted a solid 21-53-74 in 80 games and is at 11-40-51 in 69 games this year. He's absolutely the team's most gifted offensive player. And he's on pace for the worst goal-scoring output of his 10-year NHL career.
Why?
There are a number of factors that come to mind immediately. Quality of linemates, injuries throughout the lineup, poor shooting percentage, bad luck, a hilariously bad power play, etc.
Before digging into the bad, it's important to discuss what made that line in Calgary so prolific. If a coach had to draw up a holy trinity of complimentary players, it may be that. In Lindholm, you have a savvy, patient, high-IQ player who knows how to always be the support valve. He knew it wasn't his show, and he relished being in that role. Tkachuk is a proficient rush player but does his best work in-zone, which makes him something of a unicorn among high-end NHL forwards. He would stir the pot, disrupt breakouts, and was a net-front presence with plus-scoring abilities and underappreciated passing skills. And in Gaudreau, you have a hyper-creative, precise playmaker who benefited from the patience of Lindholm and the tenacity of Tkachuk. All three profited from the other's play styles.
In Columbus, Gaudreau has mostly played alongside Boone Jenner, because there isn't another 1C available until Adam Fantili fulfills his destiny. Jenner is more like Tkachuk than Lindholm but doesn't quite have the high-end skill or high-end angst. I was hopeful that someone like Kirill Marchenko could be the third player on a line like that, and in 136:39 minutes of 5v5 ice (per NaturalStatTirick), the line outscored their opponents 8-2 while having slightly under-average underlying metrics. Why this line didn't get more runway is a question that I would like answered. Instead, Pascal Vincent played Gaudreau primarily alongside Jenner and Jack Roslovic, which was never quite the fit. It is worth noting that Alex Nylander, who rhymes with Lindholm in that they're both savvy right-shot forwards who prioritize their intellect over raw talent, seems to have found something.
Regardless, it's safe to say that this team lacks the ideal linemates for Gaudreau. Heading into next season, I would hope that the new GM prioritizes roster construction a bit more than his predecessor, who was better at finding NHL players than the right NHL players. I think a Marchenko-Fantilli-Gaudreau line could work. It's possible that someone like Cole Sillinger could develop into that role, too. But finding a right-shot to play opposite Gaudreau - and it's not Patrik Laine - should be a priority.
Aside from linemates, there are other reasons for the scoring slump. He has a career-low 6.12% 5v5 shooting percentage. He's shooting fewer pucks, too, generating just 5.89 shots/60 minutes, down from 8.24 in 2021-22. He's missed tons of breakaways this year, which he called "not ideal."
Johnny Gaudreau dekes out Kahkonen on a breakaway and has him beat but couldn't finish. So close.
— Jeff Svoboda (@JacketsInsider) February 18, 2024
Then he gets another breakaway and can't convert that one either. #CBJ getting chances at least
Johnny Gaudreau very close on a quick breakaway. CBJ just came off the Power Play, and didn't even look like they got 1 shot off. A lot of action so far in this game though. pic.twitter.com/x88iVsFf4W
— Louis Marchegiano (@JLMarche) January 24, 2024
Gaudreau has always been a power play threat, but this season, these numbers are down as well. In 212:03 of power play time, he's only taken 26 shots and has just one goal. In his defense, he's still creating chances, to the tune of 14 assists, but he's simply not threatening to score with any regularity.
Suboptimal linemates, unlucky shooting percentage, fewer shots generated, power play struggles. Add all that up and you have a season with a career-low goal output.
Gaudreau will probably never return to his 40-goal form, and that's okay. He's a dynamic playmaker and helps the offense even when he's not the one ultimately lighting the lamp. I think one miscalculation that the front office had was that Gaudreau would be able to drive a line by himself. Through two seasons, it's become obvious that he benefited greatly from playing with Tkachuk and Lindholm. This franchise needs to help him regain his form as a scoring threat, at a minimum, and that means finding and/or developing players that help him do that.
