Win or lose Friday night, the Columbus Blue Jackets will still be part of the postseason race when Saturday morning comes.
There is a difference between being mathematically in the race and having a realistic chance, though.
In many ways, the season has already been a success. But with the Blue Jackets just two points out of a potential playoff spot days away from April, it's okay to for expectations to have changed a bit. This team deserves more than just being a feel-good story that ran out of steam — and regardless of what fans deem to be a successful season, there will not be a single player on the team who will be satisfied with finishing just short.
...and that makes Friday's game against the Vancouver Canuks a huge (and even that's an understatement) game.
As of Thursday, the Blue Jackets are two points behind Montreal for the second wild card spot, with both teams having played 70 games. The New York teams are sandwiched in between at 74, with the Islanders having played 71 games and the Rangers checking in at 72 games played. Detroit is one point behind Columbus, with 71 games in the books.
Based on the current paces of those teams, the Canadiens would finish with 88 points and the last spot in the postseason. The Blue Jackets would finish at 86 and tied with the Islanders for the 9th spot — or, in other words: just short.
| SPOT |
|
PTS | PACE | LEFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
WC1 |
|
79 |
92.5 |
12 |
WC2 |
|
75 |
87.9 |
12 |
9TH |
|
74 |
85.5 |
11 |
10TH |
|
74 |
84.2 |
10 |
11TH |
|
73 |
85.5 |
12 |
12TH |
|
72 |
83.2 |
11 |
But 88 is just a pace.
It will only take one of those teams to get (or, in Montreal's case, stay) hot for a more realistic number to be 90-91 points to secure a playoff spot, and that's where the math starts to work itself out.
There are 24 points still available to the Blue Jackets this season. To finish with 88 points, they'll need 15 of those: roughly a 7-4-1 finish.
To finish with 90-91 — a much safer number than 88 — that's 17-18 of the possible 24 points. At that point, it means finishing the season out at around an 8-3-1 or 9-3-0 finish.
From there, it's just a matter of looking at the schedule:
| DAY | DATE |
|
DAY | DATE | OPPONENT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRI | 3/28 |
|
VS. VANCOUVER | TUE | 4/8 |
|
VS. OTTAWA |
| SAT | 3/29 |
|
@ OTTAWA | THU | 4/10 |
|
VS. BUFFALO |
| TUE | 4/1 |
|
VS. NASHVILLE | SAT | 4/12 |
|
VS. WASHINGTON |
| THU | 4/3 |
|
VS. COLORADO | SUN | 4/13 |
|
@ WASHINGTON |
| SAT | 4/5 |
|
@ TORONTO | TUE | 4/15 |
|
@ PHILADELPHIA |
| SUN | APR 6 |
|
@ OTTAWA | THU | APR 17 |
|
VS. NY ISLANDERS |
At most, Columbus can lose four of the final 12. A fifth loss and even with regulation wins in the other seven, that's 87 points — and that's not going to be enough.
Unfortunately, there are a few less-than-positive things that jump out:
-
Facing the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs twice in a span of three nights. Both teams still have a lot to play for.
-
Three games in ten days against the Ottawa Senators. It's not impossible to beat a team three times in ten days, but again, reality: it's a big, big ask — especially when two are on the road, and on top of that, both on the second leg of a back-to-back.
-
Speaking of back-to-backs: the Blue Jackets are just 1-8-0 this season on the second half of a back-to-back. They have three to finish the season, including the two against Ottawa.
- A home-and-home against the Washington Capitals, who lead the NHL in points and potentially could be the weekend that Alex Ovechkin breaks the all-time goals record.
Those factors make some of the other games on the schedule feel like must-wins. Columbus has to take care of business at home, they have to take care of business with days off between games, and they have to take care of business against teams who are either out of the playoff picture or fighting to stay alive.
All three of those check the boxes for Friday's game against the Canucks.
The game will be the fifth of a season-long, six-game road trip for Vancouver and will be their third game of the week. Columbus will enter the game coming off three days off and as healthy as they've been all season, with both Cole Sillinger and Jake Christiansen possibilities to play and Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson having returned to the lineup Monday.
The Blue Jackets can still lose some games on the schedule and make it.
Friday just doesn't feel like one of them.
