David Savard is one of many Columbus Blue Jackets who improved after having a couple of tough seasons under his belt. Despite having good offensive numbers in 2014-15, his defensive metrics weren't great.
It reached a boiling point in 2016-17 when assistant coach Brad Shaw joined the Blue Jackets staff and helped stabilize a defensive corps that needed it in the worst way. Savard, while paired with Jack Johnson, posted a career-best +/- of 33. It was one of the top marks in the league and helped his name get into headlines. Even Johnson, who has never had flattering shot metrics, saw improvement in that regard.
Can Savard even get close to the mark that he set last year?
OVER: +15
For all of the praise on defense, Savard has great offensive touch to his game. The year he scored 36 points wasn't a fluke, and on-ice shooting percentage when he is on the ice hovers slightly above league average. After four straight seasons hovering around the same mark, we can say that the sample size is enough to call it a pattern. Savard had a positive impact when he's on the ice.
Couple that with a shot differential that was a career-best and Savard is only improving defensively. The sky is the limit and it doesn't have to end at +33; he is moving the puck from the defensive end to the offensive end quickly, meaning more goals and fewer goals against. "Safe is death" seems to fit his game just fine.
It isn't out of the realm of possibility that an offensively talented player like Savard that eats minutes can push past +15 at 5v5 while coming back down to earth a bit. He put up career-best numbers while his pairing was taking the most defensive zone draws on the team last season. Why can't he repeat it?
UNDER: +15
The topic of plus/minus is a tough one in the age of analytics. More often than not, you will see a player with a high PDO having some sort of correlation to their plus/minus. Savard had a PDO at 5v5 of 103, firmly one of the highest on the team.
That's due for a drop this season, but how far? Looking at on-ice save percentage when Savard is on the ice, we see that it was the highest of his entire career at .942. This isn't just a percentage point off from his previous seasons, it is three-tenths of a percentage point improvement from the last two years.
Savard's improvement is noticeable by using the eye test, but is he really enough of a defensive stalwart to allow the Blue Jackets to save 94 percent of all shots when he is on the ice? That doesn't seem likely, meaning he is going to get scored on at 5v5 more than he did last year.
Official prediction: +15, PUSH
